地震灾害经济易损性评估研究——以甘肃省为例
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摘要
从灾害学基本理论出发结合模糊综合评价模型,建立了相应的地震灾害经济易损性的评估模型,构造了易损性因素指标集及评语集,并对甘肃省13个地级市进行地震经济易损性风险评估,最终获取经济易损性等级划分。结果表明:易损性最高的地区为兰州市、金昌市、天水市、武威市、张掖市;易损性最低的地区为平凉市、酒泉市、定西市和甘南州;其他地区介于两者之间。由于评估指标对评估目标的影响具有模糊性的特点,因此采用模糊综合评判法进行评估是合适的。
Based on the basic theory of disaster and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,an assessment model of economic vulnerability caused by earthquake disaster is established,and the vulnerability factor indices set and remark set are constructed.Using the model 13 main cities in Gansu province are taken as examples to do the assessments.The results show that Lanzhou,Jinchang,Tianshui,Wuwei,Zhangye have the highest economic vulnerabilities,and Pingliang,Jiuquan,Dingxi and Gannan have the lowest ones.As the influence of assessment indices on assessment target is fuzzy,the method is appropriate.
Based on the basic theory of disaster and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,an assessment model of economic vulnerability caused by earthquake disaster is established,and the vulnerability factor indices set and remark set are constructed.Using the model 13 main cities in Gansu province are taken as examples to do the assessments.The results show that Lanzhou,Jinchang,Tianshui,Wuwei,Zhangye have the highest economic vulnerabilities,and Pingliang,Jiuquan,Dingxi and Gannan have the lowest ones.As the influence of assessment indices on assessment target is fuzzy,the method is appropriate.
引文
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[2]陈顒,陈棋福,陈凌.地震损失预测评估中的易损性分析[J].中国地震,1999,(2):97-105.
[3]Nayak P C,Sudheer K P,Ramasastri K S.Fuzzy computingbased rainfall-unoff model for real Hydrological[J].Processes,2005,19:955-968.
[4]Hundecha Y,Bardossy A,Theisen H-W.Development of afuzzy logic based rainfall model[J].Hydrological SciencesJournal,2001,46(3):363-377.
[5]刘新立,史培军.空间不完备信息在区域自然灾害风险评估中的处理与应用——理论部分[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(4):1-8.
[6]蒋卫国,李京等.洪水灾害人口风险模糊评价[J].湖南大学学报,2008,9:85-88.
[7]王新洲,史文中,王树良.模糊空间信息处理[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2003:44-50.
[8]全佺,王玲珍.基于信息扩散理论的云南省地震风险评估及管理研究[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(2):180-193.
[9]冯德益,林命周,顾瑾平,等.模糊数学在地震预报和震源孕育模式研究中的应用[J].西北地震学报,1981,3(3):1-8.
[10]韩立岩,汪培庄.应用模糊数学[M].北京:北京经济贸易大学出版社,1998:151-152.
[11]赵宝元,刘小峰.运筹与决策基础[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2001:4-10.
[12]中国地震局监测预报司编制.中国强地震目录[M].北京:地震出版社,1999:148-154.
[13]邹文卫,洪银屏,翁武明,等.北京市社会公众防震减灾科普认知、需求调查研究[J].国际地震动态,2011,(6):15-31.
[14]甘肃省统计局编.甘肃发展年鉴2010[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2010:10.
[15]蒋卫国,李京,武建军,等.区域洪水灾害风险评估体系(Ⅱ)——模型与应用[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(6):105-109.
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