汶川地震近震源区地形变短期前兆现象的解析
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摘要
2008年汶川8.0级地震是我国自建国以来灾难最为严重的一次强地震,有关震前该区域地壳变形情况引起许多学者的关注。本文给出了沿龙门山地震带地倾斜及跨龙门山断裂断层水准剖面临震前变化的特征:汶川地震前沿龙门山地震带分布的康定、汶川及茂县台地倾斜无明短期显变化;6个断层水准观测场地,除耿达场地观测到较大幅度变化有争议外,其他断层观测场震前均未观测到突出的短临前兆性异常变化。本文分析了汶川地震前大区域地震活动性资料及震前沿南北地震带显著形变异常点分布特点,探讨了汶川地震震中区域应变积累过程,认为近震源区域无显著短期前兆变化现象很可能与震中区域介质所具有的高应变、小变形性质有关。另外,也不排除地形变观测点所处的位置等有关因素。
The 12 May 2008 MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake is one of the most catastrophic event in the past 60 years in China.Great attention has been paid by a lot of scholars.In this paper,we studied the pre-seismic deformation characteristics of ground tilt along the earthquake rupture zone and leveling across the rupture zone.We showed that before the eartthquake some tiltmeters installed along the Longmenshan seismic belt were in operation and no significant changes have been observed at Kangding,Wenchuan and Maoxian stations,and there were also no reliable precursors among 6 cross-fault levelling observation sites,except the large changes observed at the Gengda site which has been denied as a precursor anomaly by mathematical modelling.We analyzed the regional seismic activity data and significant deformation anomalie on South-northern seismic belt,and studied the strain accumulation process of Wenchuan earthquake.We proposed that no significant short-term precursory changes around the epicentral area was possibly related to the properties of high-strain but small deformation state prior to the main shock,but the factors of deformation measurement sites and the kinds of measurement instruments could not be excluded.
The 12 May 2008 MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake is one of the most catastrophic event in the past 60 years in China.Great attention has been paid by a lot of scholars.In this paper,we studied the pre-seismic deformation characteristics of ground tilt along the earthquake rupture zone and leveling across the rupture zone.We showed that before the eartthquake some tiltmeters installed along the Longmenshan seismic belt were in operation and no significant changes have been observed at Kangding,Wenchuan and Maoxian stations,and there were also no reliable precursors among 6 cross-fault levelling observation sites,except the large changes observed at the Gengda site which has been denied as a precursor anomaly by mathematical modelling.We analyzed the regional seismic activity data and significant deformation anomalie on South-northern seismic belt,and studied the strain accumulation process of Wenchuan earthquake.We proposed that no significant short-term precursory changes around the epicentral area was possibly related to the properties of high-strain but small deformation state prior to the main shock,but the factors of deformation measurement sites and the kinds of measurement instruments could not be excluded.
引文
[1]闻学泽等.2008年汶川8.0级地震发生的历史与现今地震活动背景[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):444-454.
[2]徐锡伟等.汶川MS8.0地震地表破裂带及其发震构造[J].地震地质,2008,30(3):597-629.
[3]江在森等.汶川8.0级地震前区域地壳运动与变形动态过程[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):505-518.
[4]王武星等.GRACE卫星观测到的与汶川MS8.0地震有关的重力变化[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(8):1 767-1 777.
[5]祝意青等.龙门山断裂带重力变化与汶川8.0级地震关系研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(10):2 538-2 546.
[6]Scholz C H.A physical interpretation of the Haicheng earthquake prediction[J].Nature,1978,265:121-124.
[7]Уломов,Волны сейсмодинамических активизаций и долгосрочного прогноза землетрясений[J].Физика Земли,1993,(4):43-53.
[8]冯德益等.构造波及其在地震预报中的应用[J].地壳形变与地震,1993,13(1):1-9.
[9]牛安福.长周期形变与地震[J].地震学报,1993,15(增刊):560-564.
[10]牛安福等.大同地震及其异常地倾斜场[J].地震学报,1995,17(1):499-504.
[11]王绳祖等.大陆动力学——网状塑性流动与多级构造变形[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.
[12]Kana Takahashi,Tetsuzo Seno.Diffusion of crustal deformation from disturbances arising at plateboundaries-a case of the detachment beneath the Izu Peninsula,central Honshu,Japan[J].EarthPlanets Space,2005,57:935-941.
[13]焦青等.汶川8.0级地震前后龙门山断裂活动特征浅析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(4):7-11.
[14]薄万举,杨国华,张风霜.汶川MS8.0地震孕震机理的形变证据与模型推演[J].地震,2009,29(1):85-91.
[15]周硕愚等.汶川8.0级地震前断层形变异常及与其他大震的比较[J].地震学报,2009,(2):140-151.
[16]单新建等.汶川MS8.0地震前InSAR垂直形变场变化特征研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(1):2 739-2 745.
[17]朱航等.耿达段水准观测资料在汶川MS8.0地震前后异常的辨别[J].地震学报,2010,32(6):649-658.
[18]陈章立等.汶川MS8.0地震发生背景与过程的研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):455-463.
[19]Wang Qi,Qiao Xuejun,Lan Qigui et al.Rupture of deep faults in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquakeand uplift of the Longmen Shan[J].Nature Geoscience 4,634-640(2011)doi:10.1038/ngeo1210.
[20]郭啟良等.汶川MS8.0大震前后的水压致裂原地应力测量[J].地球物理学报,2009(5):1395-1 401.
[21]许绍夑.从汶川地震震前现象认识其发震动力应具有的大尺度与深层次性[J].中国工程科学,2009,11(6):16-18.
[22]Садовский М А и др.Освойствах дискретности горных город,Изв.АНСССР[J].Физика Земли,1982,(12):3-18.
[23]Соболев Г А.Основа прогноза землетрясений[M].Москва Наука,1993.92-156.
[24]陆坤权等.颗粒介质中探测地震前兆和前兆应力——应变传播模型[J].中国科学,2011,56(6):383-390.
[25]孙文科.地震火山活动产生重力变化的理论与观测研究的进展及现状[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(4):44-53.
[26]Linde T,Gladwin M T,Johnston J S.The loma prieta earthquake,1989and earth strain tidal am-plitudes:an unsuccessful search for associated changes[J].geophysiical research leter,1992,19(3):317-320.
[27]Roger Bilham.Co-seismic strain and the Transition to Surface Afterslip recorded by Creep-metersnear the 2004Parkfield epicenter[J].Seism Res Lett Jan,2005,76(1):49-57.
[28]Amoruso A,Crescentini L.Limits on earthquake nucleation and other pre-seismic phenomena fromcontinuous strain in the near field of the 2009L′Aquila earthquake[J].Geophysical research letters,2010,37,110307,doi:10.1029/2010GL043308.
[29]薄万举,华彩虹.地形变强震前兆指标探讨[J].地震,2001,21(1):25-32.
[30]蒋靖祥等.新疆钻孔应变异常与强震活动[J].内陆地震,2003,17(2):126-133.
[31]Dambara T.A revised relation between the area of the crustal deformation associated with an earth-quake and its magnitudes[J].Rep Coord Comm Earthquake Predict,1979,21:167-169.
[32]Shuzo Takemoto.Some problems on detection of earthquake precursors by means of continuous mo-nitoring of crustal strains and tilts[J].J of Geophy Res,1991,96(b6):10 377-10 390.
[33]Shan X J,Zhang G H.A characteristic analysis of dynamic evolution of preseismic-coseismic-posts-eismic interferometric deformation fields associated with the M7.9earthquake of Mani,Tibet in 1997[J].Acta Geological Sinica,2007,81(4):587-592.
[34]Das S,Scholz C H.Theory of time-dependent rupture in the Earth[J].J of Geophys Res,1981,86(B7):6 039-6 051.
[2]徐锡伟等.汶川MS8.0地震地表破裂带及其发震构造[J].地震地质,2008,30(3):597-629.
[3]江在森等.汶川8.0级地震前区域地壳运动与变形动态过程[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):505-518.
[4]王武星等.GRACE卫星观测到的与汶川MS8.0地震有关的重力变化[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(8):1 767-1 777.
[5]祝意青等.龙门山断裂带重力变化与汶川8.0级地震关系研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(10):2 538-2 546.
[6]Scholz C H.A physical interpretation of the Haicheng earthquake prediction[J].Nature,1978,265:121-124.
[7]Уломов,Волны сейсмодинамических активизаций и долгосрочного прогноза землетрясений[J].Физика Земли,1993,(4):43-53.
[8]冯德益等.构造波及其在地震预报中的应用[J].地壳形变与地震,1993,13(1):1-9.
[9]牛安福.长周期形变与地震[J].地震学报,1993,15(增刊):560-564.
[10]牛安福等.大同地震及其异常地倾斜场[J].地震学报,1995,17(1):499-504.
[11]王绳祖等.大陆动力学——网状塑性流动与多级构造变形[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.
[12]Kana Takahashi,Tetsuzo Seno.Diffusion of crustal deformation from disturbances arising at plateboundaries-a case of the detachment beneath the Izu Peninsula,central Honshu,Japan[J].EarthPlanets Space,2005,57:935-941.
[13]焦青等.汶川8.0级地震前后龙门山断裂活动特征浅析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(4):7-11.
[14]薄万举,杨国华,张风霜.汶川MS8.0地震孕震机理的形变证据与模型推演[J].地震,2009,29(1):85-91.
[15]周硕愚等.汶川8.0级地震前断层形变异常及与其他大震的比较[J].地震学报,2009,(2):140-151.
[16]单新建等.汶川MS8.0地震前InSAR垂直形变场变化特征研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(1):2 739-2 745.
[17]朱航等.耿达段水准观测资料在汶川MS8.0地震前后异常的辨别[J].地震学报,2010,32(6):649-658.
[18]陈章立等.汶川MS8.0地震发生背景与过程的研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):455-463.
[19]Wang Qi,Qiao Xuejun,Lan Qigui et al.Rupture of deep faults in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquakeand uplift of the Longmen Shan[J].Nature Geoscience 4,634-640(2011)doi:10.1038/ngeo1210.
[20]郭啟良等.汶川MS8.0大震前后的水压致裂原地应力测量[J].地球物理学报,2009(5):1395-1 401.
[21]许绍夑.从汶川地震震前现象认识其发震动力应具有的大尺度与深层次性[J].中国工程科学,2009,11(6):16-18.
[22]Садовский М А и др.Освойствах дискретности горных город,Изв.АНСССР[J].Физика Земли,1982,(12):3-18.
[23]Соболев Г А.Основа прогноза землетрясений[M].Москва Наука,1993.92-156.
[24]陆坤权等.颗粒介质中探测地震前兆和前兆应力——应变传播模型[J].中国科学,2011,56(6):383-390.
[25]孙文科.地震火山活动产生重力变化的理论与观测研究的进展及现状[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(4):44-53.
[26]Linde T,Gladwin M T,Johnston J S.The loma prieta earthquake,1989and earth strain tidal am-plitudes:an unsuccessful search for associated changes[J].geophysiical research leter,1992,19(3):317-320.
[27]Roger Bilham.Co-seismic strain and the Transition to Surface Afterslip recorded by Creep-metersnear the 2004Parkfield epicenter[J].Seism Res Lett Jan,2005,76(1):49-57.
[28]Amoruso A,Crescentini L.Limits on earthquake nucleation and other pre-seismic phenomena fromcontinuous strain in the near field of the 2009L′Aquila earthquake[J].Geophysical research letters,2010,37,110307,doi:10.1029/2010GL043308.
[29]薄万举,华彩虹.地形变强震前兆指标探讨[J].地震,2001,21(1):25-32.
[30]蒋靖祥等.新疆钻孔应变异常与强震活动[J].内陆地震,2003,17(2):126-133.
[31]Dambara T.A revised relation between the area of the crustal deformation associated with an earth-quake and its magnitudes[J].Rep Coord Comm Earthquake Predict,1979,21:167-169.
[32]Shuzo Takemoto.Some problems on detection of earthquake precursors by means of continuous mo-nitoring of crustal strains and tilts[J].J of Geophy Res,1991,96(b6):10 377-10 390.
[33]Shan X J,Zhang G H.A characteristic analysis of dynamic evolution of preseismic-coseismic-posts-eismic interferometric deformation fields associated with the M7.9earthquake of Mani,Tibet in 1997[J].Acta Geological Sinica,2007,81(4):587-592.
[34]Das S,Scholz C H.Theory of time-dependent rupture in the Earth[J].J of Geophys Res,1981,86(B7):6 039-6 051.
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