地震触发响应系数动态图象扫描及华北近期地震危险区预测
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摘要
从理论上讲，地震之间存在力学相关性，尤其是一个地震带内在临界状态，地震间相互作用增强。利用这种关系用地震触发响应系数扫描方法，可在一个强震发生后预测下次强震发生的地点。地震引起的应力场扰动包括静态、动态扰动，包括断层弹性位错，也有断层蠕动，可以有弹性地震波和粘弹性形变波的传播实现，有弹性变形，也有永久变形，有瞬间的，也有长久的效应等。这方面已提出好多种效应假说，多种效应共同作用的后果是一个。At值综合了强震后多种作用的后果，计算简便，一般在强震后一至几个月内即可进行，即可预测下次强震位置。
In the theory, there exits a mechanical correlation between earthquakes,especiall,under the threshold state in the seismic zone,the seismic interation have been enhanced.It might be used to predict the site of coming strong earthquake by using the scanning method of the seismic triggering response coefficient after a strong earthquake. Earthquake caused stress field turbulence includes static and dynmaic turbulence,fault's elastic dislocation and fault creep as well. It can propagate in the form of elastic seismic wave or viscoelastic deformation wave. The turbulence can cause elastic deformation and perpetual deformation besides twinking effect. It can leave permanent effect. Many effective hypothesises have been presented in the aspect,however,the result due to joint action of various effects is unique. At value synthesises many consequence of strong earthquake effect. It is easy to be calculated usually,the calculation can be made in several months after a strong earthquake. At the same time,we can use At value to forcast the location of the next strong earthquake.
In the theory, there exits a mechanical correlation between earthquakes,especiall,under the threshold state in the seismic zone,the seismic interation have been enhanced.It might be used to predict the site of coming strong earthquake by using the scanning method of the seismic triggering response coefficient after a strong earthquake. Earthquake caused stress field turbulence includes static and dynmaic turbulence,fault's elastic dislocation and fault creep as well. It can propagate in the form of elastic seismic wave or viscoelastic deformation wave. The turbulence can cause elastic deformation and perpetual deformation besides twinking effect. It can leave permanent effect. Many effective hypothesises have been presented in the aspect,however,the result due to joint action of various effects is unique. At value synthesises many consequence of strong earthquake effect. It is easy to be calculated usually,the calculation can be made in several months after a strong earthquake. At the same time,we can use At value to forcast the location of the next strong earthquake.
引文
1赵根模,刘喜兰.诱发前震的物理机制与前兆意义,1987.60～65
2特科特.分形与混沌.北京:地震出版社.1993.175～204
3Hill et al.1993.Seismicity remotety triggered by the M7.3 Landres,Sicence,260,8114.10～13
4梅世蓉,张国民,冯德益.中国地震预报概率.北京:地震出版社,1993.69～73
5陈.地壳岩石的力学特性.北京:地震出版社,1988.166～201
6赵根模,姚兰予,马淑琴.断层位错引起的应力与地震危险性预测.地震学报.1994,16(4):559～566
2特科特.分形与混沌.北京:地震出版社.1993.175～204
3Hill et al.1993.Seismicity remotety triggered by the M7.3 Landres,Sicence,260,8114.10～13
4梅世蓉,张国民,冯德益.中国地震预报概率.北京:地震出版社,1993.69～73
5陈.地壳岩石的力学特性.北京:地震出版社,1988.166～201
6赵根模,姚兰予,马淑琴.断层位错引起的应力与地震危险性预测.地震学报.1994,16(4):559～566
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