福州市区地震灾害损失预测研究
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摘要
基于福州市区地震危险性分析、地震地质灾害区划、建筑物和生命线易损性分析及防震减灾信息管理系统,本文介绍了在设定地震、历史地震、盲估地震和实时地震等4种不同地震参数输入下福州市区可能遭遇的地震灾害损失预测成果,提出了依据地面数据精度和设施类型划分的大城市地震灾害损失预测城市核心区、城乡结合部和乡村三个层次方案,并在此基础上确定了地震灾害损失的预测评估单元,即在城市核心区,地震灾害的损失评估单元可以是建筑物、居委会或区;在城乡结合部,地震灾害的损失评估以居委会或区为单元;在乡村地震灾害损失评估以乡镇和自然村为单元。根据系统模块,本文预测了8度地震烈度下福州市区地震灾害的总损失及其空间分布,其中全市区人员死亡约123人,重伤约654人,无家可归者约417100人,直接经济损失156.1亿元,并分析了地震灾害损失空间分布不均匀性的主要原因。
For investigating fundamental data such as buildings,life-line engineering, population and economic data and establishing a direct seismic losses evaluation system in mega-city,the seismic losses are e-valuated in this paper on three layers of urban area,rural area and their combined area according to data precision and types. The direct seismic and casualty losses evaluation units could be determined depending on these layers. In the urban area, almost 7 000 buildings and life-line engineering (water supply ,electric power supply,transportation,gas supply,communication system) had been investigated one by one with the scale of 1 :500-1 :2 000; the direct seismic economic and casualty losses evaluation unit could be building,commune or district. In the urban and rural combined area,buildings and parts of life-line engineering had been investigated on the scale 1 :5 000; the direct seismic economic and casualty losses evaluation unit could be commune or district. In rural area,the village as whole had been investigated on sale 1 :10 000-1:50 000,the direct seismic economic and casualty losses evaluation unit could be town or village. Based on the results of seismic risk analysis,seismic and geological hazard zonation,seismic vulnerability analysis of buildings and life-line engineering, seismic induced disaster (fire and flood), direct economic losses and casualty losses in Fuzhou urban area,and information management system of seismic disaster prevention and mitigation of Fuzhou which depends on these data and GIS,the possible direct seismic losses evaluation system of Fuzhou have been established with different kinds of input of earthquakes parameters,such as scenario earthquake,historical earthquake,predicted earthquake and its intensity,and real time earthquake parameters.
As an example,the total seismic losses and their distribution in Fuzhou urban area have been evaluated under intensity 8 by the system,the total possible death will be 123,the total possible injures will be 654, the total possible homeless will be 417 100,and the total possible direct economic losses will be 15. 61 billion Yuan RMB. The seismic losses and their distribution are inhomogeneous in Fuzhou urban area. Ap-pling this system,we can get any predicted seismic losses of Fuzhou and the distribution of these losses under any input of earthquake parameter in Fuzhou area based on the losses evaluation models and related information management system.
For investigating fundamental data such as buildings,life-line engineering, population and economic data and establishing a direct seismic losses evaluation system in mega-city,the seismic losses are e-valuated in this paper on three layers of urban area,rural area and their combined area according to data precision and types. The direct seismic and casualty losses evaluation units could be determined depending on these layers. In the urban area, almost 7 000 buildings and life-line engineering (water supply ,electric power supply,transportation,gas supply,communication system) had been investigated one by one with the scale of 1 :500-1 :2 000; the direct seismic economic and casualty losses evaluation unit could be building,commune or district. In the urban and rural combined area,buildings and parts of life-line engineering had been investigated on the scale 1 :5 000; the direct seismic economic and casualty losses evaluation unit could be commune or district. In rural area,the village as whole had been investigated on sale 1 :10 000-1:50 000,the direct seismic economic and casualty losses evaluation unit could be town or village. Based on the results of seismic risk analysis,seismic and geological hazard zonation,seismic vulnerability analysis of buildings and life-line engineering, seismic induced disaster (fire and flood), direct economic losses and casualty losses in Fuzhou urban area,and information management system of seismic disaster prevention and mitigation of Fuzhou which depends on these data and GIS,the possible direct seismic losses evaluation system of Fuzhou have been established with different kinds of input of earthquakes parameters,such as scenario earthquake,historical earthquake,predicted earthquake and its intensity,and real time earthquake parameters.
As an example,the total seismic losses and their distribution in Fuzhou urban area have been evaluated under intensity 8 by the system,the total possible death will be 123,the total possible injures will be 654, the total possible homeless will be 417 100,and the total possible direct economic losses will be 15. 61 billion Yuan RMB. The seismic losses and their distribution are inhomogeneous in Fuzhou urban area. Ap-pling this system,we can get any predicted seismic losses of Fuzhou and the distribution of these losses under any input of earthquake parameter in Fuzhou area based on the losses evaluation models and related information management system.
引文
[1] 国家地震局震害防御司.未来地震损失评估方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1991．
[2] 国家地震局震害防御司未来地震灾害损失预测研究组.中国地震灾害损失预测研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1990．
[3] (美)应用技术委员会.加利福尼亚未来地震的损失估计[M].曹新玲,毛国敏,金学申,等译.北京:地震出版社,1991．
[4] 陈顒,刘杰.地震灾害损失预测[M].北京:地震出版社,1995．
[5] 傅征祥,李革平.地震生命损失研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1993．
[6] 傅征祥,姜立新.未来5～10年中国建筑物地震经济的确定性易损性分析[M].北京:地震出版社,1995．
[7] 尹之潜,李树桢.震害与地震损失的估计方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,1990,7(1) :99-107．
[8] 尹之潜.地震灾害预测与地震灾害等级[J].中国地震,1991,7(1) :9-19．
[9] 尹之潜.结构易损性分类和未来地震灾害的估计[M].北京:地震出版社.1995．
[10] 科技部国家计委国家经贸委灾害综合研究组.中国自然灾害区划研究进展[M].北京:海洋出版社,1998．
[11] 科技部国家计委国家经贸委灾害综合研究组.灾害·社会·减灾·发展-中国百年自然灾害态势与21世纪减灾策略分析[M].《中国21世纪议程实施能力建设》研究成果之一.北京:气象出版社,2000．
[12] 曲国胜,杨华庭,高庆华.我国自然灾害评估中亟待解决的问题[J].地学前缘,1996,3(2) :212-218．
[13] 侯忠良主编.地下管线抗震[M].北京:学术书刊出版社,1987．
[14] 刘锡荟,陈一平,张卫东,等.建筑物震害预测的落影贝叶斯原理的应用[J].地震工程与工程振动,1985,5(1) :1-12．
[15] M.J.N.普瑞斯特雷,F.塞勃勒.桥梁抗震设计与加固[M].袁万城译.北京:人民交通出版社,1997．
[2] 国家地震局震害防御司未来地震灾害损失预测研究组.中国地震灾害损失预测研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1990．
[3] (美)应用技术委员会.加利福尼亚未来地震的损失估计[M].曹新玲,毛国敏,金学申,等译.北京:地震出版社,1991．
[4] 陈顒,刘杰.地震灾害损失预测[M].北京:地震出版社,1995．
[5] 傅征祥,李革平.地震生命损失研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1993．
[6] 傅征祥,姜立新.未来5～10年中国建筑物地震经济的确定性易损性分析[M].北京:地震出版社,1995．
[7] 尹之潜,李树桢.震害与地震损失的估计方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,1990,7(1) :99-107．
[8] 尹之潜.地震灾害预测与地震灾害等级[J].中国地震,1991,7(1) :9-19．
[9] 尹之潜.结构易损性分类和未来地震灾害的估计[M].北京:地震出版社.1995．
[10] 科技部国家计委国家经贸委灾害综合研究组.中国自然灾害区划研究进展[M].北京:海洋出版社,1998．
[11] 科技部国家计委国家经贸委灾害综合研究组.灾害·社会·减灾·发展-中国百年自然灾害态势与21世纪减灾策略分析[M].《中国21世纪议程实施能力建设》研究成果之一.北京:气象出版社,2000．
[12] 曲国胜,杨华庭,高庆华.我国自然灾害评估中亟待解决的问题[J].地学前缘,1996,3(2) :212-218．
[13] 侯忠良主编.地下管线抗震[M].北京:学术书刊出版社,1987．
[14] 刘锡荟,陈一平,张卫东,等.建筑物震害预测的落影贝叶斯原理的应用[J].地震工程与工程振动,1985,5(1) :1-12．
[15] M.J.N.普瑞斯特雷,F.塞勃勒.桥梁抗震设计与加固[M].袁万城译.北京:人民交通出版社,1997．
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