南北地震带流体资料趋势性转折与强震的关系
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摘要
对南北地震带及附近的108项流体资料进行趋势性转折变化分析,筛选出变化相对稳定、持续时间3年以上的趋势性转折72次,以2000年为界分2个时段根据转折时间点和形态进行时空特征分析。针对南北地震带北段流体资料在2个时段中存在的突出的群体性特征,结合跨断层水准测量资料,得出北段由2000年之前构造应力状态相对松弛转为2000年之后构造应力大范围增强的初步认识,以期为未来强震趋势判断提供一定的参考。
In the past few decades, precursor materials were used to the short-term earthquake tracking and annual meeting, and rarely be used for medium and long-term analysis. Base on some existing research results and related earthquake preparation theory model, we analyzed the trend turnings changes in 108 groundwater data. We choose 72 stable trend turnings with duration more than three years, and analyzed the space and time characteristics of those trend turnings according to the turning point in time and form. The data time series were divided into two periods at the year of 2000. According to the group characteristics of trend turnings of groundwater and cross fault leveling data of the north-south seismic belt in two periods, we found that the tectonic stress state in north of north-south seismic belt was enhanced after 2000, and it was a relative relaxation before. The results of this paper could provide some references for the future judgment to the earthquake activities in the north-south seismic belt.
In the past few decades, precursor materials were used to the short-term earthquake tracking and annual meeting, and rarely be used for medium and long-term analysis. Base on some existing research results and related earthquake preparation theory model, we analyzed the trend turnings changes in 108 groundwater data. We choose 72 stable trend turnings with duration more than three years, and analyzed the space and time characteristics of those trend turnings according to the turning point in time and form. The data time series were divided into two periods at the year of 2000. According to the group characteristics of trend turnings of groundwater and cross fault leveling data of the north-south seismic belt in two periods, we found that the tectonic stress state in north of north-south seismic belt was enhanced after 2000, and it was a relative relaxation before. The results of this paper could provide some references for the future judgment to the earthquake activities in the north-south seismic belt.
引文
①全国7级地震与地震形势跟踪组,2011,中国大陆地震大形势跟踪与趋势预测研究报告
② 地震大形势研究项目组,2005,中国大陆地震大形势跟踪研究报告
B N米亚奇金、W F布霍斯,国家地震局地球物理研究所三室译,1979,地震理论与实验译文集,北京:地震出版社。
陈文德,1997,中国南北地震带1900年以来强震的时空分布特征及其预报意义,四川地震,(3),17～22。
车用太、刘五洲、鱼金子等,2000,板内强震的中地壳硬夹层孕震与流体促震假设,地震学报,22(1),93～101。
陈玉华、董治平、王培玲等,2009,昆仑山口西8.1级地震的远场前兆异常特征,中国地震,25(1),62～72。
杜方、吴江,2008,昆仑山口西8.1级地震引起的地下流体远场响应研究,地震研究,31(3),197～202。
陆明勇、刘耀炜、范雪芳等,2009,地下流体长趋势异常变化与强震预测的初步研究,地震研究,32(4),323～332。
梅世蓉、冯德益、张国民等,1993,中国地震预报概论,北京:地震出版社。
苏琴、杨永林、张永久等,2009,昆仑山口西8.1级地震对鲜水河断裂带断层活动的影响,地震研究,32(2),169～174。
张国民、耿鲁明、张永仙等,1995,构造块体的成组孕震模型和前兆场某些特征的分析,地震学报,17(1),1～10。
张昱、陈瑶,2005,昆仑山口西8.1级地震与甘肃水氡异常的关系探讨,华南地震,25(4),49～55。
② 地震大形势研究项目组,2005,中国大陆地震大形势跟踪研究报告
B N米亚奇金、W F布霍斯,国家地震局地球物理研究所三室译,1979,地震理论与实验译文集,北京:地震出版社。
陈文德,1997,中国南北地震带1900年以来强震的时空分布特征及其预报意义,四川地震,(3),17～22。
车用太、刘五洲、鱼金子等,2000,板内强震的中地壳硬夹层孕震与流体促震假设,地震学报,22(1),93～101。
陈玉华、董治平、王培玲等,2009,昆仑山口西8.1级地震的远场前兆异常特征,中国地震,25(1),62～72。
杜方、吴江,2008,昆仑山口西8.1级地震引起的地下流体远场响应研究,地震研究,31(3),197～202。
陆明勇、刘耀炜、范雪芳等,2009,地下流体长趋势异常变化与强震预测的初步研究,地震研究,32(4),323～332。
梅世蓉、冯德益、张国民等,1993,中国地震预报概论,北京:地震出版社。
苏琴、杨永林、张永久等,2009,昆仑山口西8.1级地震对鲜水河断裂带断层活动的影响,地震研究,32(2),169～174。
张国民、耿鲁明、张永仙等,1995,构造块体的成组孕震模型和前兆场某些特征的分析,地震学报,17(1),1～10。
张昱、陈瑶,2005,昆仑山口西8.1级地震与甘肃水氡异常的关系探讨,华南地震,25(4),49～55。
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