重庆羊头铺水库诱发地震分析研究
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摘要
通过实地调查并结合前人研究成果,综合分析了羊头铺水库区的地质构造背景、地震活动性及水文地质条件等。在此基础上,应用构造类比法和概率预测法对羊头铺水库诱发地震的可能性进行了分析。结果表明,库区南段有发生水库诱发地震的可能性,发生MS1.0～3.0地震的概率约为0.19,诱发最大地震强度为MS3.0左右。而库区北段有发生MS1.0地震的可能性,发震概率仅为0.03。
On the basis of field investigation and previous research,we comprehensively analyzed the tectonic background,seismic activity and hydrogeology condition of the Yangtoupu reservoir.Then we discussed the probability of the earthquake induced by Yangtoupu reservoir using structural-analogy method and probabilistic statistic method.The results show that there is possibility for the southern region of the Yangtoupu reservoir to induce earthquake and the probability of reservoir induced earthquake from M1.0 to M3.0 is about 0.19.The biggest magnitude of the induced earthquake is about M3.0.The northern region of it has little possibility to induce M1.0 earthquake and the probability is only 0.03.
On the basis of field investigation and previous research,we comprehensively analyzed the tectonic background,seismic activity and hydrogeology condition of the Yangtoupu reservoir.Then we discussed the probability of the earthquake induced by Yangtoupu reservoir using structural-analogy method and probabilistic statistic method.The results show that there is possibility for the southern region of the Yangtoupu reservoir to induce earthquake and the probability of reservoir induced earthquake from M1.0 to M3.0 is about 0.19.The biggest magnitude of the induced earthquake is about M3.0.The northern region of it has little possibility to induce M1.0 earthquake and the probability is only 0.03.
引文
①国家电力公司西北勘测设计研究院.2000.重庆市澎水县羊头铺水利枢纽工程初步设计报告.
②武汉地震工程研究院.2008.重庆市彭水县羊头铺水电站,三江口水利枢纽工程水库诱发地震危险性评价报告.
陈蜀俊,姚运生,曾佐勋,等.2005.三峡库首区蓄水前后构造应力场三维数值模拟研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报.4(2):5612-5617.
陈蜀俊.2005.三峡库首区蓄水前后构造应力场数值模拟及地震危险性研究[D].武汉:中国地质大学.
秦嘉政,刘丽芳,钱晓东.2009.水库诱发地震活动特征及其预测方法研究[J].地震研究,32(2):105-113.
王建平.2010.孔梁水库诱发地震预测研究[J].地震研究.33(1):19-25.
王秋良,姚运生,夏金梧,等.2009.统计预测模型对三峡库区诱发地震预测的应用[J].地震地质,32(1):287-294.
吴建超,陈蜀俊,陈俊华.2009.三峡水库蓄水后全位移场变化的数值模拟[J].大地测量与地球动力学.29(6):52-55.
杨清源,胡毓良.1996.国内外水库诱发地震目录[J].地震地质.18(4):453-461.
叶友权,王遹琪,张艺峰,闫培,薛蕾.2010厦门莲花水库诱发地震可能行性分析[J].工程地球物理学报.7(5):644-649.
张林洪,刘荣佩,周建芬,等.2004.库水压力作用下不同类型断层诱发水库地震的可能性分析[J].地震研究,27(3):241-245.
张琦伟,宋刚,刘志英,徐树涛,郭文生.2005.红吉水库诱发地震分析研究[J].自然灾害学报.14(2):126-131.
张秋文,王乘,李峰.2005.长江三峡工程库首及周缘地区水库诱发地震危险性定量预测与评估研究[J].水电能源科学.23(4):21-26.
Beacher G B.1979.Reservoir induced seismicity,Ⅱ:Probability of risk atdeep and/or very large reservoirs[J],G S A,11(7):3-9.
Gupta H K.2002.A review of recent studies of triggered earthquakes byartificial water reservoirs with special emphasis on earthquakes inKoyna,India[J].Earth-Science Reviews,58(3/4):279-310.
Packer D R.1979.Reservoir induced seismicity,Ⅱ:Summary and impli-cations for occurrence of risk[J],G S A,11(7):12-18.
②武汉地震工程研究院.2008.重庆市彭水县羊头铺水电站,三江口水利枢纽工程水库诱发地震危险性评价报告.
陈蜀俊,姚运生,曾佐勋,等.2005.三峡库首区蓄水前后构造应力场三维数值模拟研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报.4(2):5612-5617.
陈蜀俊.2005.三峡库首区蓄水前后构造应力场数值模拟及地震危险性研究[D].武汉:中国地质大学.
秦嘉政,刘丽芳,钱晓东.2009.水库诱发地震活动特征及其预测方法研究[J].地震研究,32(2):105-113.
王建平.2010.孔梁水库诱发地震预测研究[J].地震研究.33(1):19-25.
王秋良,姚运生,夏金梧,等.2009.统计预测模型对三峡库区诱发地震预测的应用[J].地震地质,32(1):287-294.
吴建超,陈蜀俊,陈俊华.2009.三峡水库蓄水后全位移场变化的数值模拟[J].大地测量与地球动力学.29(6):52-55.
杨清源,胡毓良.1996.国内外水库诱发地震目录[J].地震地质.18(4):453-461.
叶友权,王遹琪,张艺峰,闫培,薛蕾.2010厦门莲花水库诱发地震可能行性分析[J].工程地球物理学报.7(5):644-649.
张林洪,刘荣佩,周建芬,等.2004.库水压力作用下不同类型断层诱发水库地震的可能性分析[J].地震研究,27(3):241-245.
张琦伟,宋刚,刘志英,徐树涛,郭文生.2005.红吉水库诱发地震分析研究[J].自然灾害学报.14(2):126-131.
张秋文,王乘,李峰.2005.长江三峡工程库首及周缘地区水库诱发地震危险性定量预测与评估研究[J].水电能源科学.23(4):21-26.
Beacher G B.1979.Reservoir induced seismicity,Ⅱ:Probability of risk atdeep and/or very large reservoirs[J],G S A,11(7):3-9.
Gupta H K.2002.A review of recent studies of triggered earthquakes byartificial water reservoirs with special emphasis on earthquakes inKoyna,India[J].Earth-Science Reviews,58(3/4):279-310.
Packer D R.1979.Reservoir induced seismicity,Ⅱ:Summary and impli-cations for occurrence of risk[J],G S A,11(7):12-18.
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