1997—2004年伽师地区6级地震序列特征研究
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摘要
在对各类有关基础资料对比分析的基础上,得到了较为可靠完整的1997—2004年伽师地震目录,并以此为准进一步分析了各次6级地震序列相关参数。结果表明:(1)伽师地震序列可分为3个活动阶段,第一活动阶段又可分为3个活动过程;(2)伽师地震序列中孤立型地震b值高、k值低、能量比大于99.9%,震后3天余震即为序列中最大余震。双震型地震b值低、k值为0.1,能量比介于99.0%—99.4%之间。主余型地震b值介于孤立型和双震型之间、k值为0.02—0.05、能量比小于99.4%;(3)以3级地震为研究对象,6级地震发生前3天3级地震以平静居多,且存在20天左右的相对平静期,这种现象与新疆6级地震前地震活动平静现象相一致。(4)在伽师序列中可以各次6级地震序列前3天估算的最大余震作为该序列的后续预测震级,其平均误差为0.3级。
Based on comparison analyzing for all kinds of basic data, we have gotten the relative dependable and integral earthquake catalogue in Jiashi area from 1997 to 2004. Based on it, we analyzed further the relevant parameters of every earthquake sequence with more than M_S6. The result shows as followed. (1) The Jiashi earthquake sequence may be devided into 3 stages of seismic activity. Then the first activity stage may be devided into 3 process of seismic activity; (2) For the earthquake with the isolated type in Jiashi earthquake sequence, the value of b is high, the value of k is low, and the energy rate of them is more than (99.9)%. After the main earthquake, the aftershock of the third day is the biggest earthquake of sequence. For the earthquake with the double earthquake type in Jiashi earthquake sequence, the value of b is low, the value of k is 0.1, and the energy rate of them is in (99.0)%—(99.4)%. For the earthquake with the main-aftershock type, the value of b is between the b value of the isolated type and the b value of the double earthquake type, the value of k is in (0.02)—(0.05), and the energy rate of them is less than 99.4%; (3) Used some earthquakes with M_S3 as the research object, the quietude of earthquakes with M_S3 is main in 3 days before the earthquake with M_S6, and exits the quietude of 20 days or so. This phenomenon is in accord with the quietude of seismic activity before earthquakes with M_S6 in Xinjiang. (4) In Jiashi earthquake sequence, we may use the estimated biggest aftershock in 3 days before the earthquake sequence with M_S6 as the predict magnitude of the earthquake sequence. The average error of magnitude is 0.3.
Based on comparison analyzing for all kinds of basic data, we have gotten the relative dependable and integral earthquake catalogue in Jiashi area from 1997 to 2004. Based on it, we analyzed further the relevant parameters of every earthquake sequence with more than M_S6. The result shows as followed. (1) The Jiashi earthquake sequence may be devided into 3 stages of seismic activity. Then the first activity stage may be devided into 3 process of seismic activity; (2) For the earthquake with the isolated type in Jiashi earthquake sequence, the value of b is high, the value of k is low, and the energy rate of them is more than (99.9)%. After the main earthquake, the aftershock of the third day is the biggest earthquake of sequence. For the earthquake with the double earthquake type in Jiashi earthquake sequence, the value of b is low, the value of k is 0.1, and the energy rate of them is in (99.0)%—(99.4)%. For the earthquake with the main-aftershock type, the value of b is between the b value of the isolated type and the b value of the double earthquake type, the value of k is in (0.02)—(0.05), and the energy rate of them is less than 99.4%; (3) Used some earthquakes with M_S3 as the research object, the quietude of earthquakes with M_S3 is main in 3 days before the earthquake with M_S6, and exits the quietude of 20 days or so. This phenomenon is in accord with the quietude of seismic activity before earthquakes with M_S6 in Xinjiang. (4) In Jiashi earthquake sequence, we may use the estimated biggest aftershock in 3 days before the earthquake sequence with M_S6 as the predict magnitude of the earthquake sequence. The average error of magnitude is 0.3.
引文
[1]苏乃秦,王海涛.1997年1月21日至1998年8月27日新疆维吾尔自治区伽师强震群[A].中国震例(1997—1999)[M].北京:地震出版社,2003.
[2]焦远碧.地震序列类型、地震序列b值与地震大形势关系初探[J].地震,1998,18(1):33—40.
[3]刘正荣,孔绍麟.地震频度衰减与地震预报[J].地震研究,1985,9(1):1—5.
[4]王筱荣.地震平静特征与新疆的强震[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(3):246—252.
[5]陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉,等.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1985.15
1张先康,新疆伽师地震的深部构造背景.2003年3月3日新疆伽师地震趋势研讨会2003.
[2]焦远碧.地震序列类型、地震序列b值与地震大形势关系初探[J].地震,1998,18(1):33—40.
[3]刘正荣,孔绍麟.地震频度衰减与地震预报[J].地震研究,1985,9(1):1—5.
[4]王筱荣.地震平静特征与新疆的强震[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(3):246—252.
[5]陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉,等.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1985.15
1张先康,新疆伽师地震的深部构造背景.2003年3月3日新疆伽师地震趋势研讨会2003.
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