静态应力触发在应用中存在问题的讨论——以玉树地震为例
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摘要
大地震应力触发概念自提出至今被广泛应用。库仑应力与后续地震活动对应效果受到多种因素影响。其中,不同深度断层滑动量不同导致不同深度静态库仑应力图像差异,选取哪一个深度的应力图像来讨论后续地震趋势是一个重要问题。本文提出一个计算方法,首先计算不同深度静态库仑应力,然后在同一个位置取不同深度库仑应力最高值,绘制静态应力分布图像,并以2010年玉树地震为例,结合地震活动及静态库仑应力分布对这种计算方法的效果进行对比。结果显示,按照本文提出的计算方法,利用不同学者给出的玉树地震破裂模型计算均显示,玉树地震后2年内3级以上余震几乎全部发生在库仑应力增加区。
Static stress change has been widely used since the concept of earthquake triggering was proposed.Corresponding effect of Coulomb failure stress of major earthquake and its aftershocks is influenced by many factors.Among them,fault slips at different depths lead to differences of the static Coulomb stress image at depth.To select the stress image at what depth to discuss the trend of subsequent earthquakes is an important issue.This paper presents a calculation method: Firstly,we calculate static Coulomb stresses at various depths,and then take the highest stress value at different depths at the same location to draw the static stress image.We take the 2010 Yushu earthquake for an example to assess the effect of the calculation method proposed in this paper combined with the seismic activity and the static Coulomb stress distribution.The results show that,in the two years after Yushu earthquake,the aftershock with magnitude larger than 3.0 occurred almost always in the Coulomb stress increase area,using two rupture models given by different researchers.
Static stress change has been widely used since the concept of earthquake triggering was proposed.Corresponding effect of Coulomb failure stress of major earthquake and its aftershocks is influenced by many factors.Among them,fault slips at different depths lead to differences of the static Coulomb stress image at depth.To select the stress image at what depth to discuss the trend of subsequent earthquakes is an important issue.This paper presents a calculation method: Firstly,we calculate static Coulomb stresses at various depths,and then take the highest stress value at different depths at the same location to draw the static stress image.We take the 2010 Yushu earthquake for an example to assess the effect of the calculation method proposed in this paper combined with the seismic activity and the static Coulomb stress distribution.The results show that,in the two years after Yushu earthquake,the aftershock with magnitude larger than 3.0 occurred almost always in the Coulomb stress increase area,using two rupture models given by different researchers.
引文
①http://www.globalcmt.org/
①http://www.csi.ac.cn/manage/html/4028861611c5c2ba0111c5c558b00001/_content/10_05/11/1273559661789.html
①http://www.csi.ac.cn/manage/html/4028861611c5c2ba0111c5c558b00001/_content/10_05/11/1273559661789.html
[1]King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J.Static Stress Changes and the Triggering of Earthquakes[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1994,84(3):935-953.
[2]Harris R A.Introduction to special section:Stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1998,103(B10):24347-24358.
[3]Stein R S.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence[J].Nature,1999,402:605-609.
[4]石耀霖.关于应力触发和应力影概念在地震预报中应用的一些思考[J].地震,2001,21(3):1-7.
[5]Freed A M.Earthquake triggering by static,dynamic,and postseismic stress transfer[J].Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences,2005,33:335-367.
[6]Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E.Stress changes from the2008Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuan basin[J].Nature,2008:doi:10.1038/nature07177.
[7]Toda S,Lin J,Meghraoui M,et al.12May2008M=7.9Wenchuan,China,earthquake calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems[J].Gephysical Research Letters,2008,35:L17305,doi:10.1029/2008GL034903.
[8]石耀霖,曹建玲.库仑应力计算及应用过程中若干问题的讨论——以汶川地震为例[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(1):102-110.
[9]Parsons T,Ogata Y,Zhuang J,et al.Evaluation of static stress change forecasting with prospective and blind tests[J].Geophysical Journal International,2012,188:1425-1440.doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05343.x
[10]Bai D,Unsworth M J,Meju M A,et al.Crustal deformation of the eastern Tibetan plateau revealed by magnetotelluric imaging[J].Nature Geoscience,2010,3(5):358-362.
[11]Royden L H,Burchfiel B C,van der Hilst R D.The geological evolution of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Science,2008,321:1054-1058.
[12]闻学泽,徐锡伟,郑荣章,等.甘孜—玉树断裂的平均滑动速率与近代大地震破裂[J].中国科学D辑,2003,33(增刊):199-208.
[13]Zhang P Z,Shen Z,Wang M,et al.Continuous deformation of the Tibetan Plateau from Global Po-sitioning System data[J].Geology,2004,32(9):809-812.
[14]Shen Z,Lv J,Wang M,et al.Contemporary crustal deformation around the southeast borderland of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth,2005,110(B11409).
[15]Lin A,Jia D,Rao G,et al.Recurrent Morphogenic Earthquakes in the Past Millennium along the Strike-Slip Yushu Fault:Central Tibetan Plateau[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of Ameri-ca,2011,101(6):2755-2764.
[16]周荣军,闻学泽,蔡长星,等.甘孜—玉树断裂带的近代地震与未来地震趋势估计[J].地震地质,1997,19(2):115-124.
[17]张勇,许力生,陈运泰.2010年青海玉树地震震源过程[J].中国科学:地球科学,2010,40(7):819-821.
[18]Gomberg J,Ellis M,3D-DEF:A User′s Manual,in Open-File Report[M].Denver,1993.93-547.
[19]Gomberg J,Ellis M.Topography and tectonics of the central New Madrid seismic zone:Results of numerical experiments using a three-dimensional boundary element program[J].Journal of Geophys-ical Research,1994,99(B10):20299-20310.
[20]万永革,沈正康,盛书中,等.2008年汶川大地震对周围断层的影响[J].地震学报,2009,31(2):128-139.
[21]万永革,沈正康,盛书中,等.2008年新疆于田7.3级地震对周围断层的影响及其正断层机制的区域构造解释[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(2):280-289.
[22]王莹,吴小平,赵韬.震源参数因素对玉树地震库仑破裂应力图像及其与余震活动统计关系的影响[J].地震学报,2011,33(5):595-604.
[23]Parsons T,Velasco A A.Absence of remotely triggered large earthquakes beyond the mainshock re-gion[J].Nature Geoscience,2011,4:312-316.
①http://www.csi.ac.cn/manage/html/4028861611c5c2ba0111c5c558b00001/_content/10_05/11/1273559661789.html
①http://www.csi.ac.cn/manage/html/4028861611c5c2ba0111c5c558b00001/_content/10_05/11/1273559661789.html
[1]King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J.Static Stress Changes and the Triggering of Earthquakes[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1994,84(3):935-953.
[2]Harris R A.Introduction to special section:Stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1998,103(B10):24347-24358.
[3]Stein R S.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence[J].Nature,1999,402:605-609.
[4]石耀霖.关于应力触发和应力影概念在地震预报中应用的一些思考[J].地震,2001,21(3):1-7.
[5]Freed A M.Earthquake triggering by static,dynamic,and postseismic stress transfer[J].Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences,2005,33:335-367.
[6]Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E.Stress changes from the2008Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuan basin[J].Nature,2008:doi:10.1038/nature07177.
[7]Toda S,Lin J,Meghraoui M,et al.12May2008M=7.9Wenchuan,China,earthquake calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems[J].Gephysical Research Letters,2008,35:L17305,doi:10.1029/2008GL034903.
[8]石耀霖,曹建玲.库仑应力计算及应用过程中若干问题的讨论——以汶川地震为例[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(1):102-110.
[9]Parsons T,Ogata Y,Zhuang J,et al.Evaluation of static stress change forecasting with prospective and blind tests[J].Geophysical Journal International,2012,188:1425-1440.doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05343.x
[10]Bai D,Unsworth M J,Meju M A,et al.Crustal deformation of the eastern Tibetan plateau revealed by magnetotelluric imaging[J].Nature Geoscience,2010,3(5):358-362.
[11]Royden L H,Burchfiel B C,van der Hilst R D.The geological evolution of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Science,2008,321:1054-1058.
[12]闻学泽,徐锡伟,郑荣章,等.甘孜—玉树断裂的平均滑动速率与近代大地震破裂[J].中国科学D辑,2003,33(增刊):199-208.
[13]Zhang P Z,Shen Z,Wang M,et al.Continuous deformation of the Tibetan Plateau from Global Po-sitioning System data[J].Geology,2004,32(9):809-812.
[14]Shen Z,Lv J,Wang M,et al.Contemporary crustal deformation around the southeast borderland of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth,2005,110(B11409).
[15]Lin A,Jia D,Rao G,et al.Recurrent Morphogenic Earthquakes in the Past Millennium along the Strike-Slip Yushu Fault:Central Tibetan Plateau[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of Ameri-ca,2011,101(6):2755-2764.
[16]周荣军,闻学泽,蔡长星,等.甘孜—玉树断裂带的近代地震与未来地震趋势估计[J].地震地质,1997,19(2):115-124.
[17]张勇,许力生,陈运泰.2010年青海玉树地震震源过程[J].中国科学:地球科学,2010,40(7):819-821.
[18]Gomberg J,Ellis M,3D-DEF:A User′s Manual,in Open-File Report[M].Denver,1993.93-547.
[19]Gomberg J,Ellis M.Topography and tectonics of the central New Madrid seismic zone:Results of numerical experiments using a three-dimensional boundary element program[J].Journal of Geophys-ical Research,1994,99(B10):20299-20310.
[20]万永革,沈正康,盛书中,等.2008年汶川大地震对周围断层的影响[J].地震学报,2009,31(2):128-139.
[21]万永革,沈正康,盛书中,等.2008年新疆于田7.3级地震对周围断层的影响及其正断层机制的区域构造解释[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(2):280-289.
[22]王莹,吴小平,赵韬.震源参数因素对玉树地震库仑破裂应力图像及其与余震活动统计关系的影响[J].地震学报,2011,33(5):595-604.
[23]Parsons T,Velasco A A.Absence of remotely triggered large earthquakes beyond the mainshock re-gion[J].Nature Geoscience,2011,4:312-316.
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