城市化过程中房屋地震灾害脆弱性和损失风险变化研究——以唐山市区及城乡过渡乡镇为例
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摘要
以1976年、1995年、2002年和2009年为代表时期,利用前期研究给出的基于高分辨率遥感的群体房屋地震灾害脆弱性和震灾损失风险分析方法,分析了唐山市区及城乡过渡乡镇群体房屋地震灾害脆弱性和震灾损失风险近30多年来的整体变化。结果表明:1976—2009年,研究区房屋暴露量显著增加、结构脆弱性逐渐降低;在设定遭受Ⅵ～Ⅺ度地震烈度条件下,房屋破坏面积和直接经济损失虽均显著增加,且随烈度增大两者增加量越来越大,但房屋破坏比例显著降低;遭受低、高不同地震烈度条件下,研究区震灾损失风险差异显著:遭受低地震烈度时,砖混和钢混房屋的增加有效降低了房屋的破坏率、破坏面积和破坏等级,利于降低震灾损失风险;但遭受高地震烈度时,这类房屋也出现了大面积和高等级的破坏,因此在某种程度上增加了震灾损失风险;若1976年唐山大地震在不同代表时期重现,房屋震灾损失风险显著增加。2009年房屋破坏面积是1976年的6倍,直接经济损失是1976年的28倍。
Based on our previous researches and taking the year 1976,1995,2002 and 2009 as the representative reference time periods,the temporal and spatial changes of vulnerabilities and loss risks of building groups from seismic disaster of the Tangshan area in the last more than thirty years have been analyzed mainly through high-resolution remote sensing-based method and scenario earthquake analytical method. The main achievements are concluded as follows: 1)The total construction area of all buildings increased four times over the period from 1976 to 2009; the increased area is distributed mainly in the western part of the study area; and the structure vulnerability of buildings reduced gradually.2)Under the earthquake scenarios of intensity Ⅵ～Ⅺ,both damaged building areas and direct economic losses increased significantly,and with the increase of intensity,the increments of both were more remarkable,but the area ratios of buildings were gradually reduced.3)Under the earthquake scenarios of low intensity and high intensity,the loss risks differed greatly. Under the low intensity,because of the increased number of brick-concrete and reinforced concrete buildings which have better anti-seismic performance,the damage ratio,damage area growth and damage degree all reduced significantly. So, buildings with good anti-seismic performance can reduce effectively the loss risk from earthquake of low intensity. Under the high intensity,however,more such buildings were damaged. In a sense,the loss risks increased. 4)If the 1976 Tangshan earthquake had occurred in 2009,the damage areas and economic losses of buildings would be six times and twenty-eight times more than that of 1976,respectively.
Based on our previous researches and taking the year 1976,1995,2002 and 2009 as the representative reference time periods,the temporal and spatial changes of vulnerabilities and loss risks of building groups from seismic disaster of the Tangshan area in the last more than thirty years have been analyzed mainly through high-resolution remote sensing-based method and scenario earthquake analytical method. The main achievements are concluded as follows: 1)The total construction area of all buildings increased four times over the period from 1976 to 2009; the increased area is distributed mainly in the western part of the study area; and the structure vulnerability of buildings reduced gradually.2)Under the earthquake scenarios of intensity Ⅵ～Ⅺ,both damaged building areas and direct economic losses increased significantly,and with the increase of intensity,the increments of both were more remarkable,but the area ratios of buildings were gradually reduced.3)Under the earthquake scenarios of low intensity and high intensity,the loss risks differed greatly. Under the low intensity,because of the increased number of brick-concrete and reinforced concrete buildings which have better anti-seismic performance,the damage ratio,damage area growth and damage degree all reduced significantly. So, buildings with good anti-seismic performance can reduce effectively the loss risk from earthquake of low intensity. Under the high intensity,however,more such buildings were damaged. In a sense,the loss risks increased. 4)If the 1976 Tangshan earthquake had occurred in 2009,the damage areas and economic losses of buildings would be six times and twenty-eight times more than that of 1976,respectively.
引文
①、②同821页①。
丛沛桐,陈存恩,薄景山.2007.大庆油田地震应急预案情景分析[J].华南地震,27(2):49—55.CONG Pei-tong,CHEN Cun-en,BO Jing-shan.2007.Scenarios analysis on earthquake emergency preparedness plans forDaqing Oilfield[J].South China Journal of Seismology,27(2):49—55(in Chinese).
贡金涛,周鹏.2011.战争游戏法、情景分析法和博弈论的比较分析[J].情报探索,(11):26—28.GONG Jin-tao,ZHOU Peng.2011.Comparative analysis of war-gaming theory,scenario analysis method and game theory[J].Information Research,(11):26—28(in Chinese).
郭星全,赵文星,雷建设.1999.设定地震的分类及其确定方法[J].西北地震学报,21(1):103—106.GUO Xing-quan,ZHAO Wen-xing,LEI Jian-she.1999.Classification and determining methods of design earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,21(1):103—106(in Chinese).
黄毅宇,李响.2011.基于情景分析的突发事件应急预案编制方法初探[J].安全与环境工程,18(2):56—59.HUANG Yi-yu,LI Xiang.2011.Preliminary exploration on scenario-based contingency planning[J].Safety and Envi-ronmental Engineering,18(2):56—59(in Chinese).
刘恢先主编.1985,1986.唐山大地震震害(一至三分册)[M].北京:地震出版社.LIU Hui-Xian.1985,1986.Seismic Damage of Tangshan Earthquake(Fascicle1to3)[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
[美]应用技术委员会编.1991.加利福尼亚未来地震的损失估计[M].曹新玲,毛国敏,金学申等译.北京:地震出版社.Applied Technology Council of US(ed).1991.Earthquake Damage Evaluation for California[M].Translated by CAOXin-ling,MAO Guo-min,JIN Xue-shen,et al.Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
倪九派,邵景安,李阳兵,等.2011.近10年重庆土地利用平衡及未来情景分析[J].资源科学,33(8):1591—1599.NI Jiu-pai,SHAO Jing-an,LI Yang-bing,et al.2011.Land-use balances over the recent10years and their future sce-narios in Chongqing[J].Resources Science,33(8):1591—1599(in Chinese).
齐文华,苏桂武,张素灵,等.2012.基于高分辨率遥感的建筑群在地震灾害中的脆弱性和风险分析方法及其应用[J].中国地震,28(1):88—99.QI Wen-hua,SU Gui-wu,ZHANG Su-ling,et al.2012.A pilot research on high-resolution remote sensing-based methodfor determining the vulnerabilities and loss risks from seismic disaster of building groups and its application:Tak-ing the buildings in Tangshan peri-urban zones as examples[J].Earthquake Research in China,28(1):88—99(in Chinese).
史培军.2002.三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,11(3):1—9.SHI Pei-jun.2002.Theory on disaster science and disaster dynamics[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,11(3):1—9(inChinese).
苏桂武,高庆华.2003.自然灾害风险的分析要素[J].地学前缘,10(特刊):272—279.SU Gui-wu,GAO Qing-hua.2003.The elements for analyzing natural disaster risk[J].Earth Science Frontiers,10(Suppl):272—279(in Chinese).
苏桂武,马宗晋,朱林,等.2008.京津唐地区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性空间分异的变化[J].地质科技情报,27(2):1—11.SU Gui-wu,MA Zong-jin,ZHU Lin,et al.2008.Spatial differentiation changes of regional scale macroscopic vulnerabili-ty to earthquake disasters of Beijing,Tianjin and Tangshan area[J].Geological Science and Technology Informa-tion,27(2):1—11(in Chinese).
苏桂武,朱林,马宗晋,等.2007.京津唐地区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性变化的初步研究:空间变化[J].地震地质,29(1):15—33.SU Gui-wu,ZHU Lin,MA Zong-jin,et al.2007.A preliminary study on the changes of the regional scale macroscopicvulnerability to earthquake disasters of Beijing,Tianjin and Tangshan area—Spatial changes[J].Seismology andGeology,29(1):15—33(in Chinese).
唐兰,周孝清.2011.广州市中长期建筑领域用能情景分析[J].建筑节能,39(7):49—53,66.TANG Lan,ZHOU Xiao-qing.2011.Energy consumption circumstance of buildings in a mid-long term for Guangzhou[J].Building Energy Efficency,39(7):49—53,66(in Chinese).
田立新,刘雅婷.2012.长三角地区节能减排演化情景分析及预测[J].管理学报,9(4):611—614.TIAN Li-xin,LIU Ya-ting.2012.The evolution scenario analysis and forecast on energy conservation and emission re-duction of Yangtze River delta[J].Chinese Journal of Management,9(4):611—614(in Chinese).
王宝,李泓泽.2011.中国石油脆弱性的测算及其情景分析[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),(1):10—13.WANG Bao,LI Hong-ze.2011.Measurement and scenario analysis of China's oil vulnerability[J].Journal of NorthChina Electric Power University(Social Sciences),(1):10—13(in Chinese).
王瑛,王阳.2009.城乡承灾体差异对地震灾情的影响:以包头地震和姚安地震为例[J].灾害学,24(1):122—126.WANG Ying,WANG Yang.2009.The effects of differences of hazard-bearing bodies on earthquake disasters—A casestudy on Baotou earthquake and Yao'an earthquake[J].Journal of Catastrophology,24(1):122—126(in Chi-nese).
王子平.1986.瞬间与十年:唐山地震始末[M].北京:地震出版社.WANG Zi-ping.1986.The Moment and Ten Years:Beginning and End of the Tangshan Earthquake[M].SeismologicalPress,Beijing(in Chinese).
吴琼.2008.家庭层次地震灾害脆弱性研究的问卷调查方法及应用[D].北京:中国地震局地质研究所.WU Qiong.2008.Techniques and application of questionnaire of the study on earthquake disaster vulnerability at thefamily level[D].Dissertation.Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing(in Chinese).
尹之潜.1991.地震灾害损失预测研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,11(4):87—96.YING Zhi-qian.1991.A study for predicting earthquake disaster loss[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vi-bration,11(4):87—96(in Chinese).
尹之潜.1994.地震灾害损失预测的动态分析模型[J].自然灾害学报,3(2):72—80.YING Zhi-qian.1994.A dynamic model for predicting earthquake disaster losses[J].Journal of Natural Disaster,3(2):72—80(in Chinese).
尹之潜.1996.结构易损性分类和未来地震灾害估计[J].中国地震,12(1):50—54.YING Zhi-qian.1996.Classification of structure vulnerability and evaluating earthquake damage from future earthquake[J].Earthquake Research in China,12(1):50—54(in Chinese).
尹之潜,李树桢,杨淑文,等.1990.震害与地震损失的估计方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,10(1):99—108.YIN Zhi-qian,LI Shu-zhen,YANG Shu-wen,et al.1990.Estimating method of seismic damage and seismic loss[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,10(1):99—108(in Chinese).
张荔,贺基瑞.2011.基于情景分析法的流域径流特性研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报:自然科学版,43(4):541—545.ZHANG Li,HE Ji-rui.2011.Study of the runoff characteristics based on a scenario analysis[J].Journal of Xi'an Uni-versity of Architecture&Technology,43(4):541—545(in Chinese).
赵思健,黄崇福,郭树军.2012.情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析[J].自然灾害学报,21(1):9—17.ZHAO Si-Jian,HUANG Chong-fu,GUO Shu-jun.2012.Scenario-driven risk analysis of regional natural disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,21(1):9—17(in Chinese).
邹其嘉,苏驼,葛治洲.1990.唐山地震的社会经济影响[M].北京:学术书刊出版社.ZOU Qi-jia,SU Tuo,GE Zhi-zhou.1990.Social and Economic Impacts of Tangshan Earthquake[M].Academic Booksand Periodicals Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
Cutter S L,Mitchell J T,Scott M S.2000.Revealing the vulnerability of people and places:A case study of GeorgetownCounty,South Carolina[J].Annals of the Association of American Geographers,90(4):713—737.
Fah D,Kind F,Lang K,et al.2001.Earthquake scenarios for the city of Basel[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engi-neering,21:405—413.
Irasema Alcntara-Ayala.2002.Geomorphology,natural hazards,vulnerability and prevention of natural disasters in de-veloping countries[J].Geomorphology,47:107—124.
Klugel J U,Mualchin L,Panza G F.2006.A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis[J].Engineering Geolo-gy,88:1—22.
UN/International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction(IDNDR)[DB/OL].2005.http:∥geohaz.org/radius/.
US/Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA)[DB/OL].2006.http:∥www.fema.gov/hazus/.
White G F,Katers R W,BurtonⅠ.2001.Knowing better and losing even more:The use of knowledge in hazards man-agement[J].Environmental Hazards,3(3,4):81—92.
丛沛桐,陈存恩,薄景山.2007.大庆油田地震应急预案情景分析[J].华南地震,27(2):49—55.CONG Pei-tong,CHEN Cun-en,BO Jing-shan.2007.Scenarios analysis on earthquake emergency preparedness plans forDaqing Oilfield[J].South China Journal of Seismology,27(2):49—55(in Chinese).
贡金涛,周鹏.2011.战争游戏法、情景分析法和博弈论的比较分析[J].情报探索,(11):26—28.GONG Jin-tao,ZHOU Peng.2011.Comparative analysis of war-gaming theory,scenario analysis method and game theory[J].Information Research,(11):26—28(in Chinese).
郭星全,赵文星,雷建设.1999.设定地震的分类及其确定方法[J].西北地震学报,21(1):103—106.GUO Xing-quan,ZHAO Wen-xing,LEI Jian-she.1999.Classification and determining methods of design earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,21(1):103—106(in Chinese).
黄毅宇,李响.2011.基于情景分析的突发事件应急预案编制方法初探[J].安全与环境工程,18(2):56—59.HUANG Yi-yu,LI Xiang.2011.Preliminary exploration on scenario-based contingency planning[J].Safety and Envi-ronmental Engineering,18(2):56—59(in Chinese).
刘恢先主编.1985,1986.唐山大地震震害(一至三分册)[M].北京:地震出版社.LIU Hui-Xian.1985,1986.Seismic Damage of Tangshan Earthquake(Fascicle1to3)[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
[美]应用技术委员会编.1991.加利福尼亚未来地震的损失估计[M].曹新玲,毛国敏,金学申等译.北京:地震出版社.Applied Technology Council of US(ed).1991.Earthquake Damage Evaluation for California[M].Translated by CAOXin-ling,MAO Guo-min,JIN Xue-shen,et al.Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
倪九派,邵景安,李阳兵,等.2011.近10年重庆土地利用平衡及未来情景分析[J].资源科学,33(8):1591—1599.NI Jiu-pai,SHAO Jing-an,LI Yang-bing,et al.2011.Land-use balances over the recent10years and their future sce-narios in Chongqing[J].Resources Science,33(8):1591—1599(in Chinese).
齐文华,苏桂武,张素灵,等.2012.基于高分辨率遥感的建筑群在地震灾害中的脆弱性和风险分析方法及其应用[J].中国地震,28(1):88—99.QI Wen-hua,SU Gui-wu,ZHANG Su-ling,et al.2012.A pilot research on high-resolution remote sensing-based methodfor determining the vulnerabilities and loss risks from seismic disaster of building groups and its application:Tak-ing the buildings in Tangshan peri-urban zones as examples[J].Earthquake Research in China,28(1):88—99(in Chinese).
史培军.2002.三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,11(3):1—9.SHI Pei-jun.2002.Theory on disaster science and disaster dynamics[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,11(3):1—9(inChinese).
苏桂武,高庆华.2003.自然灾害风险的分析要素[J].地学前缘,10(特刊):272—279.SU Gui-wu,GAO Qing-hua.2003.The elements for analyzing natural disaster risk[J].Earth Science Frontiers,10(Suppl):272—279(in Chinese).
苏桂武,马宗晋,朱林,等.2008.京津唐地区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性空间分异的变化[J].地质科技情报,27(2):1—11.SU Gui-wu,MA Zong-jin,ZHU Lin,et al.2008.Spatial differentiation changes of regional scale macroscopic vulnerabili-ty to earthquake disasters of Beijing,Tianjin and Tangshan area[J].Geological Science and Technology Informa-tion,27(2):1—11(in Chinese).
苏桂武,朱林,马宗晋,等.2007.京津唐地区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性变化的初步研究:空间变化[J].地震地质,29(1):15—33.SU Gui-wu,ZHU Lin,MA Zong-jin,et al.2007.A preliminary study on the changes of the regional scale macroscopicvulnerability to earthquake disasters of Beijing,Tianjin and Tangshan area—Spatial changes[J].Seismology andGeology,29(1):15—33(in Chinese).
唐兰,周孝清.2011.广州市中长期建筑领域用能情景分析[J].建筑节能,39(7):49—53,66.TANG Lan,ZHOU Xiao-qing.2011.Energy consumption circumstance of buildings in a mid-long term for Guangzhou[J].Building Energy Efficency,39(7):49—53,66(in Chinese).
田立新,刘雅婷.2012.长三角地区节能减排演化情景分析及预测[J].管理学报,9(4):611—614.TIAN Li-xin,LIU Ya-ting.2012.The evolution scenario analysis and forecast on energy conservation and emission re-duction of Yangtze River delta[J].Chinese Journal of Management,9(4):611—614(in Chinese).
王宝,李泓泽.2011.中国石油脆弱性的测算及其情景分析[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),(1):10—13.WANG Bao,LI Hong-ze.2011.Measurement and scenario analysis of China's oil vulnerability[J].Journal of NorthChina Electric Power University(Social Sciences),(1):10—13(in Chinese).
王瑛,王阳.2009.城乡承灾体差异对地震灾情的影响:以包头地震和姚安地震为例[J].灾害学,24(1):122—126.WANG Ying,WANG Yang.2009.The effects of differences of hazard-bearing bodies on earthquake disasters—A casestudy on Baotou earthquake and Yao'an earthquake[J].Journal of Catastrophology,24(1):122—126(in Chi-nese).
王子平.1986.瞬间与十年:唐山地震始末[M].北京:地震出版社.WANG Zi-ping.1986.The Moment and Ten Years:Beginning and End of the Tangshan Earthquake[M].SeismologicalPress,Beijing(in Chinese).
吴琼.2008.家庭层次地震灾害脆弱性研究的问卷调查方法及应用[D].北京:中国地震局地质研究所.WU Qiong.2008.Techniques and application of questionnaire of the study on earthquake disaster vulnerability at thefamily level[D].Dissertation.Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing(in Chinese).
尹之潜.1991.地震灾害损失预测研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,11(4):87—96.YING Zhi-qian.1991.A study for predicting earthquake disaster loss[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vi-bration,11(4):87—96(in Chinese).
尹之潜.1994.地震灾害损失预测的动态分析模型[J].自然灾害学报,3(2):72—80.YING Zhi-qian.1994.A dynamic model for predicting earthquake disaster losses[J].Journal of Natural Disaster,3(2):72—80(in Chinese).
尹之潜.1996.结构易损性分类和未来地震灾害估计[J].中国地震,12(1):50—54.YING Zhi-qian.1996.Classification of structure vulnerability and evaluating earthquake damage from future earthquake[J].Earthquake Research in China,12(1):50—54(in Chinese).
尹之潜,李树桢,杨淑文,等.1990.震害与地震损失的估计方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,10(1):99—108.YIN Zhi-qian,LI Shu-zhen,YANG Shu-wen,et al.1990.Estimating method of seismic damage and seismic loss[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,10(1):99—108(in Chinese).
张荔,贺基瑞.2011.基于情景分析法的流域径流特性研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报:自然科学版,43(4):541—545.ZHANG Li,HE Ji-rui.2011.Study of the runoff characteristics based on a scenario analysis[J].Journal of Xi'an Uni-versity of Architecture&Technology,43(4):541—545(in Chinese).
赵思健,黄崇福,郭树军.2012.情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析[J].自然灾害学报,21(1):9—17.ZHAO Si-Jian,HUANG Chong-fu,GUO Shu-jun.2012.Scenario-driven risk analysis of regional natural disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,21(1):9—17(in Chinese).
邹其嘉,苏驼,葛治洲.1990.唐山地震的社会经济影响[M].北京:学术书刊出版社.ZOU Qi-jia,SU Tuo,GE Zhi-zhou.1990.Social and Economic Impacts of Tangshan Earthquake[M].Academic Booksand Periodicals Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
Cutter S L,Mitchell J T,Scott M S.2000.Revealing the vulnerability of people and places:A case study of GeorgetownCounty,South Carolina[J].Annals of the Association of American Geographers,90(4):713—737.
Fah D,Kind F,Lang K,et al.2001.Earthquake scenarios for the city of Basel[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engi-neering,21:405—413.
Irasema Alcntara-Ayala.2002.Geomorphology,natural hazards,vulnerability and prevention of natural disasters in de-veloping countries[J].Geomorphology,47:107—124.
Klugel J U,Mualchin L,Panza G F.2006.A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis[J].Engineering Geolo-gy,88:1—22.
UN/International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction(IDNDR)[DB/OL].2005.http:∥geohaz.org/radius/.
US/Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA)[DB/OL].2006.http:∥www.fema.gov/hazus/.
White G F,Katers R W,BurtonⅠ.2001.Knowing better and losing even more:The use of knowledge in hazards man-agement[J].Environmental Hazards,3(3,4):81—92.
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