汶川特大地震中心暴雨预报指标研究
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摘要
利用L波段探空资料、常规观测资料和物理量资料对阿坝州汶川、茂县地区49次暴雨过程进行了统计分析,结果表明:在出现暴雨前,中低层风向呈现顺转结构,比湿和θse明显增加并较多月平均明显偏高,盆地西北部有明显水汽辐合,甘肃南部有偏北风、盆地南部附近有≥10m/s的偏南风,依据上述指标建立了7~8月暴雨概念模型,拟合率达到60%。
Based on the L- wave band sounding data conventional observation data and physical quantity,the paper carries out statistical analysis on the 49 rainstorms at the Wenchuan area and Maoxian area in Aba prefecture. The study results show that before the heavy rain comes,the lower the direction of the wind at the middle and lower level presented veering structure,the specific humidity and θse had been significantly increased and were higher than monthly average,there was obvious water vapor convergence existing in the northwest of the basin,northerly wind prevailed in the southern Gansu province,and there was northerly wind more than 10 m / s or higher in the southern basin. Based on the above indicators,the concept model of the rainstorms during July and August is established with a the fitting rate reaching 60%.
Based on the L- wave band sounding data conventional observation data and physical quantity,the paper carries out statistical analysis on the 49 rainstorms at the Wenchuan area and Maoxian area in Aba prefecture. The study results show that before the heavy rain comes,the lower the direction of the wind at the middle and lower level presented veering structure,the specific humidity and θse had been significantly increased and were higher than monthly average,there was obvious water vapor convergence existing in the northwest of the basin,northerly wind prevailed in the southern Gansu province,and there was northerly wind more than 10 m / s or higher in the southern basin. Based on the above indicators,the concept model of the rainstorms during July and August is established with a the fitting rate reaching 60%.
引文
[1]蒋兴文,李跃清.四川汶川特大地震灾区基本气候特征分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(2):27-41
[2]郁淑华,高文良.“5.12”汶川特大地震重灾区泥石流滑坡气候特征分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(2):62-67
[3]梁钰,布亚林,王蕊,等.致洪暴雨预报模型应用研究[J].气象科技,2005,33(4):305-310
[4]施望芝,金琪,刘静,等.湖北省春季暴雨落区数值预报模型和指标[J].气象科技,2005,04:300-304
[5]黄永玉,谢水兰,李霖.单站暴雨客观预报的一种适用模型[J].气象科技,2005,33(3):204-208
[6]邹海波,单九生,吴珊珊,等.江西持续性暴雨的典型大尺度环流模型[J].暴雨灾害,2013,02:126-131
[7]杨仁勇,陈有龙,符式红.用T213产品动力过程相似释用法制作暴雨预报[J].气象科技,2012,03:401-405
[8]赵玉春,许小峰,崔春光.川西高原东坡地形对流暴雨的研究[J].气候与环境研究,2012,05:607-616
[9]宋清翠,王丽,李俊.武汉市灾害性暴雨的天气特征及其预报模型[J].湖北气象,1998,03:12-14
[10]刘国忠,黄开刚,罗建英,等.基于概念模型及配料法的持续性暴雨短期预报技术探究[J].气象,2013,01:20-27
[11]刘爱鸣,潘宁,邹燕,等.福建前汛期区域暴雨客观预报模型研究[J].应用气象学报,2003,04:419-429
[12]卢萍,宇如聪,周天军.四川盆地西部暴雨对初始水汽条件敏感性的模拟研究[J].大气科学,2009,02:241-250
[13]徐琳娜,康岚.基于两次副高边缘川西暴雨的预报思考[J].高原山地气象研究,2011,31(1):35-41
[14]刘琼,武敬峰,周永明.汶川特大地震中心“8.13”连续性暴雨天气分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2013,33(2):30-35
[15]陈忠明,闵文彬,崔春光.暴雨中尺度涡旋系统发生发展的诊断[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(1):29-34
[16]李跃清,蒋兴文.1998年夏季长江上游暴雨过程的水汽输送特征[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(1):36-39
[17]宋春远,熊传辉,陈亮,等.2005年7月清江流域一次连续暴雨的中尺度分析[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(1):63-67
[2]郁淑华,高文良.“5.12”汶川特大地震重灾区泥石流滑坡气候特征分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(2):62-67
[3]梁钰,布亚林,王蕊,等.致洪暴雨预报模型应用研究[J].气象科技,2005,33(4):305-310
[4]施望芝,金琪,刘静,等.湖北省春季暴雨落区数值预报模型和指标[J].气象科技,2005,04:300-304
[5]黄永玉,谢水兰,李霖.单站暴雨客观预报的一种适用模型[J].气象科技,2005,33(3):204-208
[6]邹海波,单九生,吴珊珊,等.江西持续性暴雨的典型大尺度环流模型[J].暴雨灾害,2013,02:126-131
[7]杨仁勇,陈有龙,符式红.用T213产品动力过程相似释用法制作暴雨预报[J].气象科技,2012,03:401-405
[8]赵玉春,许小峰,崔春光.川西高原东坡地形对流暴雨的研究[J].气候与环境研究,2012,05:607-616
[9]宋清翠,王丽,李俊.武汉市灾害性暴雨的天气特征及其预报模型[J].湖北气象,1998,03:12-14
[10]刘国忠,黄开刚,罗建英,等.基于概念模型及配料法的持续性暴雨短期预报技术探究[J].气象,2013,01:20-27
[11]刘爱鸣,潘宁,邹燕,等.福建前汛期区域暴雨客观预报模型研究[J].应用气象学报,2003,04:419-429
[12]卢萍,宇如聪,周天军.四川盆地西部暴雨对初始水汽条件敏感性的模拟研究[J].大气科学,2009,02:241-250
[13]徐琳娜,康岚.基于两次副高边缘川西暴雨的预报思考[J].高原山地气象研究,2011,31(1):35-41
[14]刘琼,武敬峰,周永明.汶川特大地震中心“8.13”连续性暴雨天气分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2013,33(2):30-35
[15]陈忠明,闵文彬,崔春光.暴雨中尺度涡旋系统发生发展的诊断[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(1):29-34
[16]李跃清,蒋兴文.1998年夏季长江上游暴雨过程的水汽输送特征[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(1):36-39
[17]宋春远,熊传辉,陈亮,等.2005年7月清江流域一次连续暴雨的中尺度分析[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(1):63-67
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