地震活动性预测并划分未来地震发生的潜在区域方法研究
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摘要
采用网格地震方法,选取面积百分比(33%),确定圈闭区域的半径,统计后期地震发生在圈闭区域内的概率。在我国4个不同构造环境和地震活动水平的地区,分别统计了后期地震发生在圈闭区域内的概率。结果表明,4个地区后期地震发生在圈闭区域的概率远远大于面积百分比。说明未来地震是高度地聚集在过去地震发生的区域内,采用地震活动性预测并划分未来地震发生的潜在区域的方法是可行的。
The cellullar seismology method has been proposed. While using this method, we first select a percentage of map area (33%), and then determine the radius of trap region, and finally estimate the probability of "after" earthquake in the trap region. In four regions of different tectonic environments and seismic activity in China, we estimate the probabilities of "after" earthquake in the trap regions respectively. The results indicate that the probability of "after" earthquake in the trap region is greater than the percentage of map area, and that future earthquakes may occur more frequently where there have been earthquakes in the past. Therefore, it is feasible to use seismicity prediction to delineate potential locations of future earthquakes which varies for regions with different tectonic environments.
The cellullar seismology method has been proposed. While using this method, we first select a percentage of map area (33%), and then determine the radius of trap region, and finally estimate the probability of "after" earthquake in the trap region. In four regions of different tectonic environments and seismic activity in China, we estimate the probabilities of "after" earthquake in the trap regions respectively. The results indicate that the probability of "after" earthquake in the trap region is greater than the percentage of map area, and that future earthquakes may occur more frequently where there have been earthquakes in the past. Therefore, it is feasible to use seismicity prediction to delineate potential locations of future earthquakes which varies for regions with different tectonic environments.
引文
国家地震局分析预报中心,1970～2007,中国地震详目,北京:地震出版社。
Cao T Q,Petersen M D,Reichle M S,1996,Seismic hazard estimate from background seismicity in southern California,Bull SeisSoc Am,86(5),1372～1381.
Frankel A D,1995,Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States,Seis Res Lett,66(4),8～21.
Frankel A D,Mueller C,Barnhard T,et al,1996,National Seismic Hazard Maps:Documentation June1996.U.S.Geol SurvOpen-File Rept,96～532,U.S.Geol Surv:110.
Frankel A D,Mueller C S,Barnhard T P,et al,2000,USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps,Earthquake Spectra,16(1),1～19.
Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y,1999,Testable earthquake forecasts for1999,Seis Res Lett,70(4),393～403.
Kafka A L,2002,Statistical analysis of the hypothesis that seismicity delineats areas where future earthquakes are likely to occurin the central and eastern United States,Seis Res Lett,73(6),992～1003.
Kafka A L,2006,Does seismicity delineate zones where future large earthquakes are likely to occur in intraplate environments?Continental Intraplate Earthquakes:Science,Hazard,and Policy Issues,1～49.
Kafka A L,Levin S Z,2000,Does the spatial distribution of smaller earthquakes delineate areas where larger earthquakes arelikely to occure,Bull Seism Soc Am,90(3),724～738.
Kafka A L,Walcott J R,1998,How well does the spatial distribution of smaller earthquakes forecast the locations of largerearthquakes in the northeastern United States?Seis Res Lett,69(5),428～439.
Keilis-Borok V I,Knopoff L,1980,Bursts of aftershock of strong earthquakes,Nature,283(P5744),259～263.
Petersen M D,Frankel A D,Harmsen S C,et al,2008,Documentation for the2008update of the United States national seismichazard maps,U.S.Geol Surv Open-File Rept,2008～1128.U.S.Geol Surv:4～5.
Weiss N,Hassett M,1982,Introductory Statistics:Reading,assachusetts,651,Boston:Addison-Wesley Publishing Co.
Wheeler R L,Frankel A D,2000,Geology in the1996USGS seismic-hazard maps,Central and Eastern United States,Seism ResLett,71(2),273～282.
Cao T Q,Petersen M D,Reichle M S,1996,Seismic hazard estimate from background seismicity in southern California,Bull SeisSoc Am,86(5),1372～1381.
Frankel A D,1995,Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States,Seis Res Lett,66(4),8～21.
Frankel A D,Mueller C,Barnhard T,et al,1996,National Seismic Hazard Maps:Documentation June1996.U.S.Geol SurvOpen-File Rept,96～532,U.S.Geol Surv:110.
Frankel A D,Mueller C S,Barnhard T P,et al,2000,USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps,Earthquake Spectra,16(1),1～19.
Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y,1999,Testable earthquake forecasts for1999,Seis Res Lett,70(4),393～403.
Kafka A L,2002,Statistical analysis of the hypothesis that seismicity delineats areas where future earthquakes are likely to occurin the central and eastern United States,Seis Res Lett,73(6),992～1003.
Kafka A L,2006,Does seismicity delineate zones where future large earthquakes are likely to occur in intraplate environments?Continental Intraplate Earthquakes:Science,Hazard,and Policy Issues,1～49.
Kafka A L,Levin S Z,2000,Does the spatial distribution of smaller earthquakes delineate areas where larger earthquakes arelikely to occure,Bull Seism Soc Am,90(3),724～738.
Kafka A L,Walcott J R,1998,How well does the spatial distribution of smaller earthquakes forecast the locations of largerearthquakes in the northeastern United States?Seis Res Lett,69(5),428～439.
Keilis-Borok V I,Knopoff L,1980,Bursts of aftershock of strong earthquakes,Nature,283(P5744),259～263.
Petersen M D,Frankel A D,Harmsen S C,et al,2008,Documentation for the2008update of the United States national seismichazard maps,U.S.Geol Surv Open-File Rept,2008～1128.U.S.Geol Surv:4～5.
Weiss N,Hassett M,1982,Introductory Statistics:Reading,assachusetts,651,Boston:Addison-Wesley Publishing Co.
Wheeler R L,Frankel A D,2000,Geology in the1996USGS seismic-hazard maps,Central and Eastern United States,Seism ResLett,71(2),273～282.
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