深井水位记震能力与地震预报
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摘要
深井水位测得震级M t与地震台网震级M s的差值为记震能力M st(M st=M s-M t),它能反映地下应力场状况。3口井1 559次记震能力与实际发生地震的检验结果,用R值法评分得0.50,具97.5%置信水平;用W allen法评分得0.54。3口井623个记震能力月度极大值与实际发生地震的检验结果,用R值法评分得0.42具97.5%置信水平;用W allen法评分得0.42。用深井水位记震能力预报地震的实践证明,深井水位记震能力是一种有用的地震前兆预报方法。
The recording earthquake ability Mst of the water level of a deep well can flect the state of underground stress field,which is the magnitude difference between Mt and Ms,where Ms is determined by a regional seismostation network,Mt is the magnitude of a coming earthquake from the level data of a deep well.1 559 water level data related to earthquake of three deep wells is used to calculate the earthquake magnitudes and then these Mt are compared with the earthquake magnitudes Ms.These results show that these Mt are with the confidence level of 97.5%,the R-value is 0.5 and the Wallen-value is 0.54.623 maximum values of each month is used and these Mt are with confidence level of 97.5%,the Rvalue is 0.42 and the Wallen-value is 0.42.In the 16 years period past,the practice shows that the water level observation data analysis is a helpful method for earthquake prediction.
The recording earthquake ability Mst of the water level of a deep well can flect the state of underground stress field,which is the magnitude difference between Mt and Ms,where Ms is determined by a regional seismostation network,Mt is the magnitude of a coming earthquake from the level data of a deep well.1 559 water level data related to earthquake of three deep wells is used to calculate the earthquake magnitudes and then these Mt are compared with the earthquake magnitudes Ms.These results show that these Mt are with the confidence level of 97.5%,the R-value is 0.5 and the Wallen-value is 0.54.623 maximum values of each month is used and these Mt are with confidence level of 97.5%,the Rvalue is 0.42 and the Wallen-value is 0.42.In the 16 years period past,the practice shows that the water level observation data analysis is a helpful method for earthquake prediction.
引文
1汪成民,等编著.地下水微动态研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1988.
2汪成民主编.中国地震地下水动态观测网[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.
3孙其政主编.地震地下流体观测技术[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.
4刘澜波,郑香媛译.地下水动态译文集[M].北京:北京科学技术出版社,1987.
5丁仁杰,黄才中.用苏03井水震图测定全球大地震震级的初步研究[J].地震学刊,1985,3:43~48.
6丁仁杰,等.深井水位记震特征研究[J].地震学刊,1988,
4:36~46.7万迪堃,等编著.地下水动态异常与地震短临预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.
8 Liu L B,Evelyn Roeloff and Zheng X Y.Seismically inducedweter level fluctuation in the Wali well[J].Jourual of Geo-physical Research,1989,94(B7):9 453-9 462.
9张昭栋,等.水井的频率特性及其对地震波的响应[J].中国地震,1991,7(1):53~57.
10胡先明.四川03井水震图测定震级及记震能力初探[J].四川地震,1990,1:59~63.
11胡先明,等.深井水位记震能力用于地震预报的研究[J].四川地震,1995,4:48~54.
12胡先明.用有序度研究深井水位记震能力[J].四川地震,1997,3:40~44.
2汪成民主编.中国地震地下水动态观测网[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.
3孙其政主编.地震地下流体观测技术[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.
4刘澜波,郑香媛译.地下水动态译文集[M].北京:北京科学技术出版社,1987.
5丁仁杰,黄才中.用苏03井水震图测定全球大地震震级的初步研究[J].地震学刊,1985,3:43~48.
6丁仁杰,等.深井水位记震特征研究[J].地震学刊,1988,
4:36~46.7万迪堃,等编著.地下水动态异常与地震短临预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.
8 Liu L B,Evelyn Roeloff and Zheng X Y.Seismically inducedweter level fluctuation in the Wali well[J].Jourual of Geo-physical Research,1989,94(B7):9 453-9 462.
9张昭栋,等.水井的频率特性及其对地震波的响应[J].中国地震,1991,7(1):53~57.
10胡先明.四川03井水震图测定震级及记震能力初探[J].四川地震,1990,1:59~63.
11胡先明,等.深井水位记震能力用于地震预报的研究[J].四川地震,1995,4:48~54.
12胡先明.用有序度研究深井水位记震能力[J].四川地震,1997,3:40~44.
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