地震预测:从芦山地震到大陆地震
详细信息 本馆镜像全文    |  推荐本文 | | 获取馆网全文
摘要
自从1990年以来,通过对青藏高原的调查和研究,认识到下地壳流动同步形成盆地和造山带,并受控于相关洋盆地幔软流圈向大陆的顺层流动和底辟作用。下地壳不均匀流动通过韧脆性中地壳热能-应变能转换孕育地震,部分发震能量通过上地壳脆性断层释放。在地震孕育过程中通常会伴生跨年度干旱和异常降雨,构成热灾害链。近5年内青藏高原东部连续发生汶川、玉树、芦山大地震,形成于从亚东流经羊八井、安多、玉树并分支流向汶川和芦山—康定的下地壳"热河"的仰冲式和侧冲式撞击作用。从2008年9月以来连续发表5篇论文,根据地壳热构造和热灾害链的时空结构对芦山地震的三要素进行了长期和中期预测。2008年9月预测从2013年开始可能发生大地震,2012年9月将鲜水河—安宁河—小江异常热流构造带5年内将发生多个7级地震的首个大震锁定在芦山或西昌。芦山地震只释放了亚东—羊八井—安多—玉树—鲜水河—安宁河—小江"热河"剩余热能中的一小部分,在西昌—会理—昭通地区、道孚—康定地区、通海—石屏地区近5年内很可能发生4个7级左右的地震。此外,华北典型的热灾害链结构表明震情严峻,环渤海地区近3年内很可能发生大地震。从地震热流体撞击机理与地震异常之间的关联性出发,提出了动态立体监测及短临预测地震的思路和方法。
It has been recognized that basin and orogenic belt were simultaneously formed by lower crustal flow,which controlled by the laminar flow and diapir of the mantle asthenosphere from the relational ocean by the survey and study of the Tibetan Plateau since 1990.Unsteady lower crustal flow bred earthquakes on ductile-brittle middle crust by thermal energy-strain energy conversion,and released some seismogenic energy by brittle faulting of the upper crust.The associated across-the-year drought and abnormal rainfall during the breeding process of an earthquake constitute a thermal disaster chain.The Wenchuan,Yushu and Lushan earthquakes happened in the eastern Tibetan Plateau in recent five years,which are the results of obduction and lateral impact of "thermal river" in the ductile lower crust from Yadong flowing through Yangbajing,Amdo,and Yushu,then becoming branches toward Wenchuan and Lushan-Kangding.Five papers have been published since September,2008 involving the long-term,and medium-term forecasts for the three elements of Lushan earthquake according to the crustal thermal structure and temporal-spatial structure of the thermal disaster chain.A major earthquake may occur since 2013 according to the forecast of September 2008,and the first one of several about MS 7 earthquakes along the Xianshuihe-Anninghe-Xiaojiang abnormal thermal tectonic belt will occur in Lushan or Xichang in recent five years according to the forecast of September 2012.The Lushan earthquake has only released a small part of the residual energy in the Xianshuihe-Anninghe-Xiaojiang "thermal river",and therefore four about MS 7.0 earthquakes are likely to occur in Xichang-Huili-Zhaotong,Daofu-Kangding,and Tonghai-Shiping in next five years.In addition,the classic thermal disaster chain structure in the North China indicates a severe earthquake situation,and in the surrounding areas of the Bohai Sea,major earthquakes are likely to occur in the next three years.The ideas and methods of three-dimensional dynamic monitoring and short-impending earthquake prediction are proposed in the light of relevance between the thermal fluid impacting mechanism and anomalies of earthquakes.
引文
[1]费琪.壳幔物质流变的底辟作用孕育大地震:卫星重力资料的证据[J].地学前缘,2009,16(3):282-293.
    [2]李德威.喜马拉雅造山带的构造不对称演化[J].地球科学:中国地质大学学报,1992,17(5):539-545.
    [3]李德威.大陆构造样式及大陆动力学模式初探[J].地球科学进展,1993,8(5):88-93.
    [4]李德威.再论大陆构造与动力学[J].地球科学:中国地质大学学报,1995,20(1):19-26.
    [5]李德威.关于大陆构造的思考[J].地球科学:中国地质大学学报,1995,20(1):10-18.
    [6]李德威,夏义平,徐礼贵.大陆板内盆山耦合及盆山成因:以青藏高原及周边盆地为例[J].地学前缘,2009,16(3):110-119.
    [7]李德威.东昆仑、玉树、汶川地震的发生规律和形成机理:兼论大陆地震成因与预测[J].地学前缘,2010,17(5):179-192.
    [8]周伏洪,姚正煦,刘振军,等.青藏高原中部北北东向深部负磁异常带的成因及其意义[J].物探与化探,2002,26(1):15-19.
    [9]Bai D H,Martyn J,Unsworth M A,et al.Crustal deforma-tion of the eastern Tibetan plateau revealed by magnetotellu-ric imaging[J].Nature Geoscience,2010,3:358-362.
    [10]Wang C Y,Lou H,Silver P G,et al.Crustal structure vari-ation along 30°N in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and its tec-tonic implications[J].Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2010,289:367-376.
    [11]李德威.地球系统动力学纲要[J].大地构造与成矿学,2005,29(3):285-294.
    [12]李德威.大陆板内地震的发震机理与地震预报:以汶川地震为例[J].地质科技情报,2008,27(5):1-6.
    [13]李德威.地球系统动力学与地震成因及其四维预测[C]∥香山科学会议编:科学前沿与未来(2009—2011).北京:科学出版社,2011:184-195.
    [14]李德威.初论地球自然灾害系统[J].地质科技情报,2012,31(5):69-75.
    [15]李德威.取热减灾减排圆梦美丽地球[N].中国科学报,2013-03-11(6).
    [16]李德威.大陆下地壳流动:渠流还是层流[J]?地学前缘,2008,15(3):130-139.
    [17]李德威.青藏高原及邻区三阶段构造演化与成矿演化[J].地球科学:中国地质大学学报,2008,33(6):723-742.
    [18]Li D W.Temporal-spatial structure of intraplate uplift in theQinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Acta Geologica Sinica,2010,84(1):105-134.
    [19]耿庆国.旱震关系与大地震中期预报[J].中国科学,1984,27(B7):658-665.
    [20]杨巍然,曾佐勋,李德威,等.板内地震过程的三层次构造模式[J].地学前缘,2009,16(1):206-217.

版权所有:© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心