基于专家方法的县级救灾物资库存研究:以滇西北地震灾害为例
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摘要
以救灾储备系统建设相对完善的云南省为例,对近年地震频发的滇西北地区部分县进行实地调研,提出了基于专家方法的县级救灾物资库存量估算模式,即依托于当地灾害应急预案中的灾害等级,设计相应的量表,向专家组调查,对不同灾级下的物资需求量进行估算.运用该模式进行了大姚县救灾物资储备库存研究,得到救灾物资库存量需求图,在预知需救助人口数后,即可由图对应得到物资需求量,从而辅助当地救助物资储备量的决策.同时不同物资的库存量需求图呈现较大差异,单位救助能力强的救灾物资,需求量呈分级跳跃性,储备物资时,应充分考虑其特性,优化库存,合理储备.
County storage is a basic part of Chinese inventory system for disaster relief materials.This paper illustrates a new mode based on expert method to estimate county inventory: first,survey a group of inventory experts with questionnaires;second,based on survey result,estimate demands of local disaster relief materials at different damage levels.Northwest Yunnan suffers frequency earthquakes and owns a better local storage system for disaster relief materials.For Dayao county in Northwest Yunnan,inventory demand figure of the number of need-help persons and relative demand are obtained,such figures can assist local governmental decision on disaster relief materials inventory.The demand characters of different materials vary,the stronger per-help ability is,the more obviously demand curve skips.It is better to consider this demand character to make the storage plan and program the inventory.
County storage is a basic part of Chinese inventory system for disaster relief materials.This paper illustrates a new mode based on expert method to estimate county inventory: first,survey a group of inventory experts with questionnaires;second,based on survey result,estimate demands of local disaster relief materials at different damage levels.Northwest Yunnan suffers frequency earthquakes and owns a better local storage system for disaster relief materials.For Dayao county in Northwest Yunnan,inventory demand figure of the number of need-help persons and relative demand are obtained,such figures can assist local governmental decision on disaster relief materials inventory.The demand characters of different materials vary,the stronger per-help ability is,the more obviously demand curve skips.It is better to consider this demand character to make the storage plan and program the inventory.
引文
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[2]邹铭.区域自然灾害救助的理论与实践[D].北京:北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院,2004
[3]张红.我国应急储备制度的完善[J].中国行政管理,2009(3):44
[4]建标121-2009.救灾物资储备库建设标准[S].北京:中华人民共和国民政部,2009
[5]李保俊,冀萌新,吕红峰,等.中国自然灾害备灾能力评价与地域划分[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):83
[6]赵黎明,邱佩华,石江波.灾害物资储备模型探讨[J].华侨大学学报:自然科学版.1997,1(18):107
[7]唐伟.论管理活动中的定性预测方法[J].北京师范大学学报:社会科学版.1991,4:91
[8]孙明贵.库存物流管理[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2005
[9]云南省民政厅.提升应急物资保障能力[J].中国减灾,2008(10):12
[10]手册编委会.民政救灾物资储备库规范化建设与管理实用手册[M].北京:当代中国出版社,2005
[11]韦保新.提高救灾物资储备应急保障能力的思考[J].中国减灾,2006(12):38
[12]杨子健,李威.发挥国家储备优势参与救灾物资储备[J].宏观经济管理,2007(9):20
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