朱诺-温哥华-旧金山-墨西哥城地震区未来震情研判
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摘要
基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,划定了朱诺-温哥华-旧金山-墨西哥城地震区,分析了其历史巨震孕育过程和未来震情.研究表明:1964年阿拉斯加MW9.2级地震并非该地震区当前孕育周期的主震事件,未来该区将发生MW9.2~9.6级地震.预计向临界状态演化过程中,该地震区还将发生不超过MW8.8级的preshock事件.
Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and associated prediction method developed by us,the Juneau-Vancouver-San FranciscoMexico City seismic zone is divided and the seismogenic process of great earthquakes and the future earthquake situation are also analyzed.The study indicated that the Alaska MW 9.2earthquake in 1964 is not the main shock event in the current seismogenic period and a great earthquake of MW9.2~9.6will occur in the future with some preshock events whose magnitude is less than or equal to MW8.8.
Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and associated prediction method developed by us,the Juneau-Vancouver-San FranciscoMexico City seismic zone is divided and the seismogenic process of great earthquakes and the future earthquake situation are also analyzed.The study indicated that the Alaska MW 9.2earthquake in 1964 is not the main shock event in the current seismogenic period and a great earthquake of MW9.2~9.6will occur in the future with some preshock events whose magnitude is less than or equal to MW8.8.
引文
Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L,et al.2014a.Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the northeast China,north China and Taiwan.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(2):535-554,doi:10.6038/pg20140210.
Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L,et al.2014b.Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the northwest China and Tibet.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(3):1046-1067,doi:10.6038/pg20140308.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2014c.Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the east China,south China and southwest China.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(3):1033-1045,doi:10.6038/pg20140307.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2014d.The definition of seismogenic period of strong earthquakes for some seismic zones in southwest China.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(4):1526-1540,doi:10.6038/pg20140407.
Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,et al.2010.Brittle failure mechanism of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and exploration on a new way for earthquake prediction.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),53(4):1001-1014,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.04.025.
Qin S Q,Xue L,LI P,et al.2014e.Analysis on the seismogenic processes of large or great earthquakes for some seismic zones abroad based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches(I).Chinese Journal of Geophysics,29(4):1541-1554,doi:10.6038/pg20140408.
Straser V.2008.300-day seismic cycles in the southern segment of the San Andreas fault,California.New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter,(49):30-53.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷,等.2014a.东北、华北与台湾地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(2):535-554,doi:10.6038/pg20140210.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷,等.2014b.西北与西藏地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(3):1046-1067,doi:10.6038/pg20140308.
秦四清,李培,薛雷,等.2014c.华东、华南与西南地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(3):1033-1045,doi:10.6038/pg20140307.
秦四清,李培,薛雷,等.2014d.中国西南地区某些地震区强震孕育周期界定.地球物理学进展,29(4):1526-1540,doi:10.6038/pg20140407.
秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.2010.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索.地球物理学报,53(4):1001-1014,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.04.025.
秦四清,薛雷,李培,等.2014e.国外某些地震区大地震孕育过程分析(I).地球物理学进展,29(4):1541-1554,doi:10.6038/pg20140408.
Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L,et al.2014b.Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the northwest China and Tibet.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(3):1046-1067,doi:10.6038/pg20140308.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2014c.Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the east China,south China and southwest China.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(3):1033-1045,doi:10.6038/pg20140307.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2014d.The definition of seismogenic period of strong earthquakes for some seismic zones in southwest China.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(4):1526-1540,doi:10.6038/pg20140407.
Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,et al.2010.Brittle failure mechanism of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and exploration on a new way for earthquake prediction.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),53(4):1001-1014,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.04.025.
Qin S Q,Xue L,LI P,et al.2014e.Analysis on the seismogenic processes of large or great earthquakes for some seismic zones abroad based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches(I).Chinese Journal of Geophysics,29(4):1541-1554,doi:10.6038/pg20140408.
Straser V.2008.300-day seismic cycles in the southern segment of the San Andreas fault,California.New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter,(49):30-53.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷,等.2014a.东北、华北与台湾地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(2):535-554,doi:10.6038/pg20140210.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷,等.2014b.西北与西藏地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(3):1046-1067,doi:10.6038/pg20140308.
秦四清,李培,薛雷,等.2014c.华东、华南与西南地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(3):1033-1045,doi:10.6038/pg20140307.
秦四清,李培,薛雷,等.2014d.中国西南地区某些地震区强震孕育周期界定.地球物理学进展,29(4):1526-1540,doi:10.6038/pg20140407.
秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.2010.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索.地球物理学报,53(4):1001-1014,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.04.025.
秦四清,薛雷,李培,等.2014e.国外某些地震区大地震孕育过程分析(I).地球物理学进展,29(4):1541-1554,doi:10.6038/pg20140408.
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