汶川“5.12”地震序列余震时空分布的研究
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摘要
2008年5月12日汶川8.0级大地震发生后,余震成为了社会各界关注的焦点之一。利用中国地震台网发布的余震资料,通过GIS空间分析的准确定位和SPSS的统计分析研究了余震活动的空间、时间和强度的特点和规律,制作了强余震分布图、余震频度图;用回归分析和最小二乘法拟合了强余震发生与主震相隔时间的关系。研究结果表明:余震震中沿着龙门山断裂带呈带状分布,主要发生在汶川与青川之间断层的拐点、端点和交叉点上;余震的次数随主震后的时间推移"先快后慢"逐渐衰减,并将会持续一段时间;余震的震级与时间基本上没有相关性;抛物线模型拟合出相隔天数与强震序数的回归方程可供余震预测参考。
Aftershock became one of the focuses to all the society gradually after Wenchuan Earthquake (Ms=8.0 ) on May 12, 2008. Supported with the statistical data of these aftershocks issued by China Seismic Network and the advantage of GIS and SPSS soft- wares, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the aftershockes were analyzed and the space distribution map and the frequency graph of strong aftershockes were compiled. The relationship between strong aftershocks and the days after the main earthquake was discussed based on the method of least square. The result showed that the aftershocks formed a zonal distribution along the Faults of Longmenshan, including the inflectionpoints, endpoints and crossingpoints of the faults between Wenchuan and Qingchuan; the times were damping with‘‘ fast followed by slow’’ and it would last for some time; the aftershock magnitude and time had no correlation; the regression equation of the relation with the aftershock events and the interval established by the Quad- ratic Model can be prediction reference.
Aftershock became one of the focuses to all the society gradually after Wenchuan Earthquake (Ms=8.0 ) on May 12, 2008. Supported with the statistical data of these aftershocks issued by China Seismic Network and the advantage of GIS and SPSS soft- wares, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the aftershockes were analyzed and the space distribution map and the frequency graph of strong aftershockes were compiled. The relationship between strong aftershocks and the days after the main earthquake was discussed based on the method of least square. The result showed that the aftershocks formed a zonal distribution along the Faults of Longmenshan, including the inflectionpoints, endpoints and crossingpoints of the faults between Wenchuan and Qingchuan; the times were damping with‘‘ fast followed by slow’’ and it would last for some time; the aftershock magnitude and time had no correlation; the regression equation of the relation with the aftershock events and the interval established by the Quad- ratic Model can be prediction reference.
引文
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[4]姜立新,帅向华,张建福,等.地震应急指挥管理信息系统的探讨[J].地震,2003,23(2):116-120.Jiang Lixin,Shuai Xianghua,Zhang Jianfu,et al.Study of earthquake emergency command system[J].Earthquake,2003,23(2):116-120.
[5]魏群.地震序列[J].地震战线,1977,1:16-18.Wei Qun.Earthquake Sequence[J].Earthquake battlefront,1977,1:16-18.
[6]林茂炳,俞广.茂汶韧性断裂带(耿达-汶川段)的基本特征[J].成都理工学院学报,1997,24(2):40-47.Lin Maobing,Yu Guang.Principal features of Maowen ductile fault zone(Wenchuan-Gengda section)[J].Journal of Chengdu university of technology,1997,24(2):40-47.
[7]地震问答编写组.地震问答[M].北京:地质出版社,1975:16.Editorial group of earthquake knowledge.Earthquake question an-swering[M].Beijing:Geological Press,1975:16.
[8]四川地震资料汇编[M].成都:四川人民出版社,1981:70.The compilation of Sichuan seismic data[M].Chengdu:Sichuan Peo-ple Press,1981:70.
[9](日本)宇津德治.地震学[M].北京:地震出版社,1981.(Japan)Yujindezhi.Seismology[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1981.
[10]季爱东,赵英萍,郑建常,等.山东及邻近地区中小地震震源参数的测定[J].灾害学,2008,23(1):113-117.Ji Aidong,Zhao Yingping,Zheng Jianchang,et al.Determination of the Focus Parameters of the Moderate and Small Earthquakes in Shandong and Its Adjacent Areas[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2008,23(1):113-117.
[11]董国胜.强余震预报规律的探讨及其应用[J].四川地震,1991,4:30-33.Dong Guosheng.A study of strong post-earthquake prediction law and its application[J].Earthquake Research in Sichuan,1991,4:30-33.
[12]平建军,刘荣环,贾炯,等.地震序列较强余震灰色及最小二乘拟合预测方法的应用研究[J].华北地震科学,2005(1):8-15.Ping Jianjun,Liu Ronghuan,Jia Jiong,et al.The application study of the predict method of the gray and the method of least square in the earthquake array strong aftershock[J].North China Earthquake Sci-ences,2005(1):8-15.
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