新疆分量式钻孔应变阶变异常的统计特征及其在地震预测中的应用研究
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摘要
新疆分量式钻孔应变异常类型有多种,阶变型异常是其中重要的异常类型之一。系统地研究了新疆地区分量式钻孔应变阶变型异常的统计特征及其和地震的关系。结果表明,阶变型异常以短临异常为主,异常持续时间小于 90 d 的占 97%,异常出现后 3 个月内发生地震的占 55%;应变阶变异常量级范围为 10-6～10-4;应变性质以塑性为主,占 77%;映震效果较好,映震率为 85%。
There are five abnormity types of component-type borehole strain in Xinjiang,among which the more important is the stepping change type. The relation is systematically studied between the statistical character of anormality of steping change and the earthquake in Xinjiang. It is shown that the anomality of steping change is of short-impending priority. The abnormality with duration less than 90 days is more than 97% of the recorded data. After three months of anomality appearance,the possibility for earthqake to occur is 55%. The magnitude of strain steping change is between 10-6 and 10-4,which consists of elastic deformation and plastic one,and plastic deformation is the main deformation taking 77% of the recorded steping change anormality. The mirror effect of steping change anormality on earthquake is quite good with mirror effect rate of 85%.
There are five abnormity types of component-type borehole strain in Xinjiang,among which the more important is the stepping change type. The relation is systematically studied between the statistical character of anormality of steping change and the earthquake in Xinjiang. It is shown that the anomality of steping change is of short-impending priority. The abnormality with duration less than 90 days is more than 97% of the recorded data. After three months of anomality appearance,the possibility for earthqake to occur is 55%. The magnitude of strain steping change is between 10-6 and 10-4,which consists of elastic deformation and plastic one,and plastic deformation is the main deformation taking 77% of the recorded steping change anormality. The mirror effect of steping change anormality on earthquake is quite good with mirror effect rate of 85%.
引文
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17梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993
2王启民,冯先水,马洪军.一种弦频式钻孔应变仪[J].地震学报,1983,5(3):370～276
3池顺良.压容式钻孔应变仪的初步试验结果[J].地震学报,1982,4(1):98～1034杨志荣.1987年1月24日新疆乌什6.
4级地震前兆异常及其预报[J].中国地震,1987,3(4):6～12
5蒋靖祥,赖爱京,胡琼.利用钻孔应变资料预报伽师强震群[J].西北地震学报,1998,20(2):16～21
6李步云.甘肃附加应力场预报研究[J].西北地震学报,1998,20(4):63～69
7朱航,李志君.利用攀枝花台压容一般应变资料预测强震[J].四川地震,2001,(3):17～19
8尹亮,李志坚,陈兰新等.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前高台钻孔应变异常特征[J].高原地震,2002,14(1):83～86
9张晓青,顾永康.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前青海省形变及地温前兆特征分析[J].高原地震,2002,14(1):70～75
10邱桂兰.攀枝花钻孔应力-应变异常与昆仑山口西8.1级地震[J].四川地震,2003,(1):42～45
11蒋靖祥,尹光华,许风柱.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前库尔勒测区相对应力场变化[J].地震,2003,25(3):89～96
12张永久,朱航,程万正.仁和台压容应变短临异常信息的提取及映震能力分析[J].内陆地震,2003,17(3):134～140
13苏凯之,李海亮,张钧等.钻孔地应变观测新进展[A].北京:地震出版社,2003
14刘辉.乌什台倾斜短临异常特征分析[J].内陆地震,1994,8(4):344～348
15基辛ИГ.地震与地下水[M].单修政译.北京:地震出版社,1986
16张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰等.地震预报引论[M].北京:地震出版社,2001
17梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993
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