极值理论在台湾地区地震趋势预测中的应用
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摘要
利用陈培善等人对极值理论修改后的极值分布函数模型对1971-01～2012-06台湾地区的地震资料进行统计分析。根据地震活动和地震地质构造特征划分区域、确定边界,单位时间的选取由其地震发生的频度和能量来确定,单位时间内最小与最大地震的确定分别考虑相关区域内台网的监控能力以及删除余震后的实际情况,根据修正后的极值理论统计计算出相应地震的复发周期及在未来一定时间内可能发生相应地震的次数与发震概率,并对有关结果进行模型检验和映震能力分析,同时与利用M-T图及震级与G-R关系获取的M≥7.0级地震的复发周期进行比较。
A statistical study is made by the data of earthquakes in Taiwan from Jan.1971 to Jun.2012 which using the distribution function of extreme values modified by Peishan Chen et al.Zoning by the earthquake activity and the characteristics of geological structural,the unit time is determined by the frequency and energy of earthquake,then minimum earthquake magnitude and maximum in unit time is determined by considering the regional earthquake network monitoring ability and the earthquake catalogue deleted aftershocks,based on the modified extreme values theory,the recurrence period in the region was calculated,and the theoretical frequencies and the probability of various earthquakes in the future was estimated.Then,checking the model and analyzing the capability reflecting earthquake.The result was compared to the recurrence periods of M≥7.0 earthquake which were acquired by M-T diagram and G-R relationship.
A statistical study is made by the data of earthquakes in Taiwan from Jan.1971 to Jun.2012 which using the distribution function of extreme values modified by Peishan Chen et al.Zoning by the earthquake activity and the characteristics of geological structural,the unit time is determined by the frequency and energy of earthquake,then minimum earthquake magnitude and maximum in unit time is determined by considering the regional earthquake network monitoring ability and the earthquake catalogue deleted aftershocks,based on the modified extreme values theory,the recurrence period in the region was calculated,and the theoretical frequencies and the probability of various earthquakes in the future was estimated.Then,checking the model and analyzing the capability reflecting earthquake.The result was compared to the recurrence periods of M≥7.0 earthquake which were acquired by M-T diagram and G-R relationship.
引文
[1]陈培善,林邦慧.极值理论在中长期地震预报中的应用[J].地球物理学报,1973,16(1):6-24.
[2]林晨.基于极值理论地震预测系统的分析与设计[D].安徽:安徽大学,2011.
[3]张卫东,李茂林,张秀梅,等.极值理论在地震危险性分析中的应用与研究[J].东北地震研究,2005,21(1):24-30.
[4]郭绍忠,马殿军.极值理论在滇西北强震预报中的作用[M]//董国胜,张朝方主编,多震区地震研究.昆明:云南科技出版社,1994.
[2]林晨.基于极值理论地震预测系统的分析与设计[D].安徽:安徽大学,2011.
[3]张卫东,李茂林,张秀梅,等.极值理论在地震危险性分析中的应用与研究[J].东北地震研究,2005,21(1):24-30.
[4]郭绍忠,马殿军.极值理论在滇西北强震预报中的作用[M]//董国胜,张朝方主编,多震区地震研究.昆明:云南科技出版社,1994.
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