城市地震灾害风险区划的研究
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摘要
为了研究城市面临的地震灾害风险,笔者在充分考虑地震灾害风险在空间上分布不均的基础上,提出城市地震灾害风险区划网格的划分原则,分析并总结与地震灾害风险评价相关的工程易损性分析方法,并在上述研究的基础上,探讨基于人员死亡数量和经济损失为标度的地震灾害风险计算方法,为城市抗震防灾规划编制提供依据。以厦门市地震灾害风险区划分为例进行了风险区划网格划分,并计算了不同网格的地震灾害风险,找出了厦门市地震风险严重的区域,为今后有针对性地进行抗震防灾工作提供有益的借鉴。
To study the seismic disaster risks that cities face,the grid-division principle for risk zoning of urban seismic disasters was put forth with consideration on the asymmetric distribution of seismic disaster risks in space.Meanwhile,the engineering vulnerability analysis method related to risk assessment of seismic disasters was analyzed and summarized.On the basis of the above study,the seismic risk calculating method with the mortality and economic loss as the indicator was explored.This study provides foundations for the compilation of urban earthquake resistance and prevention.By taking Xiamen city as an example,the seismic risk of this city was zoned with grids,the seismic risks for each grid were calculated out,and the high risk zone was found out,which provides references for the earthquake resistance and prevention of Xiamen city.
To study the seismic disaster risks that cities face,the grid-division principle for risk zoning of urban seismic disasters was put forth with consideration on the asymmetric distribution of seismic disaster risks in space.Meanwhile,the engineering vulnerability analysis method related to risk assessment of seismic disasters was analyzed and summarized.On the basis of the above study,the seismic risk calculating method with the mortality and economic loss as the indicator was explored.This study provides foundations for the compilation of urban earthquake resistance and prevention.By taking Xiamen city as an example,the seismic risk of this city was zoned with grids,the seismic risks for each grid were calculated out,and the high risk zone was found out,which provides references for the earthquake resistance and prevention of Xiamen city.
引文
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[2]李彤.论城市公共安全的风险管理[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(3):65～72
[3]丁绍祥.中国抗震防灾事业的三十年[J].工程建设与设计,2004(8):3～4
[4]戴树和.工程风险分析技术[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2007
[5]胡聿贤.地震工程学[M].北京:地震出版社,1988
[6]张风华,谢礼立.城市防震减灾能力研究[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(4):57～64
[7]王志涛.城市一般建筑物快速震害预测方法的研究[D].唐山:河北理工大学[硕士论文],2005
[8]李杰.生命线工程抗震-基础理论与应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2005
[9]余世周.地震次生灾害的数值模拟[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所[硕士论文],2004
[10]尹之潜.地震灾害及损失预测方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1996
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