基于Logistic模型的地震次生崩滑危险性评价——以汶川县为例
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摘要
地震次生崩滑是震后较长时间内严重危害人们生活的地质灾害之一,对其展开危险性评价具有重要意义。本文选取2008年汶川地震的重灾区汶川县为研究区,基于遥感数据,利用GIS技术手段,结合研究区地质环境背景进行地震次生崩滑危险性评价。选取逻辑回归模型,将研究区划分为不危险、轻微危险、较危险、危险和极危险5个等级,实现了基于Logistic模型的区域内地震次生崩滑地质环境危险性评价。
Earthquake-induced collapses and slides are one of the geological disasters that can seriously endanger human life after earthquakes.In this article we select as study area the heavily devastated area Wenchuan county in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.Risk assessment of earthquake-induced collapses and slides is based on remote sensing data and GIS method,combined with the geological environment background of the study area.Logistic regression model was selected and the study area is ultimately categorized into five classes,namely,not dangerous,slightly dangerous,dangerous,more dangerous,extremely dangerous.
Earthquake-induced collapses and slides are one of the geological disasters that can seriously endanger human life after earthquakes.In this article we select as study area the heavily devastated area Wenchuan county in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.Risk assessment of earthquake-induced collapses and slides is based on remote sensing data and GIS method,combined with the geological environment background of the study area.Logistic regression model was selected and the study area is ultimately categorized into five classes,namely,not dangerous,slightly dangerous,dangerous,more dangerous,extremely dangerous.
引文
[1]李强.基于GIS的重庆市北培区滑坡灾害危险性评价[D].西南大学,2008.
[2]李光,姚大全,张有林.汶川8.0级地震崩塌、滑坡的发育特点[J].防灾科技学院学报,2008,10(3):131-134.
[3]邢秋菊,赵纯勇,高克昌,等.基于GIS的滑坡危险性逻辑回归评价研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2004,20(3):49-51.
[4]王亚强,王兰民,张小曳,等.GIS支持下的黄土高原地震滑坡区划研究[J].地理科学,2004,24(2):170-176.
[5]胡德勇,李京,陈云浩,等.GIS支持下滑坡灾害空间预测方法研究[J].遥感学报,2007,11(6):852-859.
[6]王萌,乔建平.基于GIS的沐川县滑坡危险度区划[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(1):174-179.
[7]张国平,徐晶,毕宝贵.滑坡和泥石流灾害与环境因子的关系[J].应用生态学报,2009,20(3):653-65.
[8]Yang Hong,Robert F.ADLER.Predicting global landslide spatiotemporal distribution:Integratinglandslide susceptibility zoning techniques and real-time satellite rainfall estimates[J].InternationalJournal of Sediment Research,2008,vlo23,pp.249-257.
[9]兰恒星,伍法权,周成虎,等.GIS支持下的降雨型滑坡危险性空间分析预测[J].科学通报,2003,48(5):507-512.
[10]许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.基于GIS的汶川地震滑坡灾害影响因子确定性系数分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(1):2792-2981.
[11]SU Fenghuan,CUI Peng,ZHANG Jianqiang.Susceptibility Assessment of Landslides Caused bythe Wenchuan Earthquake Using a Logistic Regression Model[J].J.Mt.Sci,2010,7(10):234-245.
[12]严满存,王光谦.基于GIS的澜沧江下游区滑坡灾害危险性分析[J].地理科学,2007,27(3):365-370.
[13]丛威青,潘懋,李铁峰,等.基于GIS的滑坡,泥石流灾害危险性区划划分关键问题研究[J].地学前缘,2006,13(1):185-190.
[2]李光,姚大全,张有林.汶川8.0级地震崩塌、滑坡的发育特点[J].防灾科技学院学报,2008,10(3):131-134.
[3]邢秋菊,赵纯勇,高克昌,等.基于GIS的滑坡危险性逻辑回归评价研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2004,20(3):49-51.
[4]王亚强,王兰民,张小曳,等.GIS支持下的黄土高原地震滑坡区划研究[J].地理科学,2004,24(2):170-176.
[5]胡德勇,李京,陈云浩,等.GIS支持下滑坡灾害空间预测方法研究[J].遥感学报,2007,11(6):852-859.
[6]王萌,乔建平.基于GIS的沐川县滑坡危险度区划[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(1):174-179.
[7]张国平,徐晶,毕宝贵.滑坡和泥石流灾害与环境因子的关系[J].应用生态学报,2009,20(3):653-65.
[8]Yang Hong,Robert F.ADLER.Predicting global landslide spatiotemporal distribution:Integratinglandslide susceptibility zoning techniques and real-time satellite rainfall estimates[J].InternationalJournal of Sediment Research,2008,vlo23,pp.249-257.
[9]兰恒星,伍法权,周成虎,等.GIS支持下的降雨型滑坡危险性空间分析预测[J].科学通报,2003,48(5):507-512.
[10]许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.基于GIS的汶川地震滑坡灾害影响因子确定性系数分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(1):2792-2981.
[11]SU Fenghuan,CUI Peng,ZHANG Jianqiang.Susceptibility Assessment of Landslides Caused bythe Wenchuan Earthquake Using a Logistic Regression Model[J].J.Mt.Sci,2010,7(10):234-245.
[12]严满存,王光谦.基于GIS的澜沧江下游区滑坡灾害危险性分析[J].地理科学,2007,27(3):365-370.
[13]丛威青,潘懋,李铁峰,等.基于GIS的滑坡,泥石流灾害危险性区划划分关键问题研究[J].地学前缘,2006,13(1):185-190.
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