面向突发灾害事件的应急效能评估方法
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摘要
通常在面临突发灾害情况下,难以迅速确定最佳救援方案,其中的重要原因是缺乏有效的决策支持。为此,提出了突发事件应急效能的概念,并建立了一个基于效用聚合的突发事件应急预案的效能评估方法。最后,以一个大地震灾害的想定为例,应用提出的应急灾害效能评估方法,对多个应急预案进行了评估,评估结果合理可行。
It is difficult to select an optimum rescue plan from many plans when an emergency disaster suddenly occurs.A lack of valid decision-making support is one of the most important reasons.Therefore,the conception of response effectiveness of emergency plan was put forward,and an evaluation method based on the utility cluster was set up to evaluate the response effectiveness of emergency plan.A scenario of a strong earthquake disaster is built as an example to test the evaluation method on the emergency plans.Through the evaluation of multiple emergency plans,it is found that the evaluation method is reasonable and feasible.
It is difficult to select an optimum rescue plan from many plans when an emergency disaster suddenly occurs.A lack of valid decision-making support is one of the most important reasons.Therefore,the conception of response effectiveness of emergency plan was put forward,and an evaluation method based on the utility cluster was set up to evaluate the response effectiveness of emergency plan.A scenario of a strong earthquake disaster is built as an example to test the evaluation method on the emergency plans.Through the evaluation of multiple emergency plans,it is found that the evaluation method is reasonable and feasible.
引文
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[3]缪金祥.从南方雪灾谈交通应急预案[J].交通企业管理,2008(9):6-7.MU Jinxiang.Discussion about the traffic emergency response plan from the South China snow disaster[J].Traffic Company Management,2008,(9):6-7.(in Chinese)
[4]慕艳平.从汶川大地震看应急物流体系建设[J].当代经济,2008(8):94-95.MU Yanping.View the Logistics system construction from the Wenchuan earthquake[J].Contemporary Economics,2008(8):94-95.(in Chi-nese)
[5]徐勇,钟珞,潘媛媛.基于WebGIS的防震减灾系统研究与设计[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2005,25(3):340-344.XU yong,ZHONG Luo,PAN Yuanyuan.Research and design of WebGIS based system for earthquake disaster mitigation[J].Journal of DisasterPrevention and Mitigation Engineering,2005,25(3):340-344.(in Chinese)
[6]姜振波,盛金保,李雷,等.水库突发事件应急预案研究现状与关键技术初探[J].大坝与安全,2008(3):11-14.JIANG Zhenbo,SHENG Jinbao,LI Lei,et al.Study situation and critical technology of emergency preparedness plan for unexpected events of res-ervoirs[J].Dam and Safety,2008(3):11-14.(in Chinese)
[7]Georgi Kirov,Valentin Stoyanov.Software architecture for implementation of complex simulation systems[J].Cybernetics and Information Technol-ogies,2008,8(4):57-68.
[8]王东明,张华,徐永志.地震应急处置推演训练系统研究[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(4):137-142.WANG Dongming,ZHANG hua,XU Yongzhi.Research on earthquake emergency response deduction training system[J].Journal of Natural Disas-ters,2008,17(4):137-142.(in Chinese)
[9]毛军,郗艳红,吕华.数值模拟与仿真在地铁火灾防灾减灾中的应用[J].北京交通大学学报,2008,32(4):52-57.MAO J un,XI Yanhong,LU Hua.Applications of the numerical simulation for disaster prevention and mitigation of subway fire[J].Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University,2008,32(4):52-57.(in Chinese)
[10]黄炎焱,杨峰,王维平.基于效用聚合的装甲装备作战效能评估方法研究[J].系统仿真学报,2005,17(10):2311-2331.HUANG Yanyan,YANG Feng,WANG Weiping.Research of evaluation methodology of armored equipment operational effectiveness based on u-tility fusion[J].Journal of System Simulation,2005,16(10):2311-2313.(in Chinese)
[11]李明,刘澎.武器装备发展系统论证方法与应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2000:1-477.LI Ming,LIU Peng.Theory and Practice of an Integrated and Systematic Demonstration Method for Development of Weapon and Equipment[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2000:1-477.(in Chinese)
[12]万自明,廖良才,陈英武.武器系统效能评估模式研究[J].系统工程与电子技术,2000,22(3):1-3.WAN Ziming,LIAO Liangcai,CHEN Yingwu.Research on effectiveness evaluation mode of weapon system[J].Systems Engineering and Elec-tronics,2000,22(3):1-3.(in Chinese)
[13]张恒喜,朱家元,郭基联.军用飞机型号发展工程导论[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2004:1-379.ZHANG Hengxi,ZHU Jiayuan,GUO Jilian.Introduction of Military Aircraft Engineering Development[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2004:1-379.(in Chinese)
[14]孟庆玉,张静远,宋保维.鱼雷作战效能分析[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2003:1-370.MENG Qingyu,ZHANG Jingyuan,SONG Baowei.Analysis of Operational Effectiveness for Torpedo[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2003:1-370.(in Chinese)
[15]张最良,李长生,赵文志,等.军事运筹学[M].北京:军事科学出版社,1993:1-679.ZHANG Zuiliang,LI Changsheng,ZHAO Zhiwen,et al.Military Operations Research[M].Beijing:Military Science Press,1993:1-679.(in Chinese)
[16]吴晓锋,钱东.用于系统效能分析的WSEIAC模型及其扩展[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,22(8):1-6.WU Xiaofeng,QIAN Dong.WSEIAC model and its extension for system effectiveness analysis[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2000,22(8):1-6.(in Chinese)
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