鲁东—黄海地块与日本南部地震活动相关性分析及因果关系检验
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摘要
对我国华北地区次级构造单元鲁东—黄海活动地块与日本南部地区的地震活动进行了对比分析和相关性检验,并利用随机变量时间序列的协整分析和Granger因果关系检验方法,研究了鲁东-黄海地块与日本南部地区地震能量释放过程之间的关系.结果表明,鲁东—黄海地块4级以上地震活动与日本南部5级以上地震具有相关性和同步性,它们的应变能累积释放序列之间存在较好的同期相关关系.两个区域的应变能累积释放序列都属于一阶单整序列,即它们的一阶差分都是平稳序列,二者之间存在长期稳定的协整关系.进行Granger因果关系检验和基于向量误差修正模型的因果关系检验结果表明,二者之间存在具有一定置信度的单向因果关系.
In this paper, we make a comparative analysis and correlation test for the seismic activities in the South Japan and the Ludong-Huanghai block (a secondary tectonic unit in the North China) and approach the relationship between the energy release processes of these two areas by using co-integration analysis and Granger causality test for the time series of random variables. The results show that the seismic activities in these two areas are correlative and synchronous to a certain extent, and their release series of cumulative strain energy are contemporaneously correlative. Both energy series are first-order difference stationary processes and there is secular and steady co-integration between them. We make a positive analysis on the first-order difference energy series through Granger causality test based on vector error correction (VEC) model and find there is unilateral Granger causality and prominent co-integration between the two energy release processes.
In this paper, we make a comparative analysis and correlation test for the seismic activities in the South Japan and the Ludong-Huanghai block (a secondary tectonic unit in the North China) and approach the relationship between the energy release processes of these two areas by using co-integration analysis and Granger causality test for the time series of random variables. The results show that the seismic activities in these two areas are correlative and synchronous to a certain extent, and their release series of cumulative strain energy are contemporaneously correlative. Both energy series are first-order difference stationary processes and there is secular and steady co-integration between them. We make a positive analysis on the first-order difference energy series through Granger causality test based on vector error correction (VEC) model and find there is unilateral Granger causality and prominent co-integration between the two energy release processes.
引文
李文英,王秀英.1996.华北地区与日本海沟地震的相关性分析[J].地震,16(3):219-224.
马宏生,张国民,刘杰,等.2003.中国大陆及其邻区强震活动与活动地块关系研究[J].地学前缘,10(增刊):74-80.
吴佳翼,郁曙君,何淑韵.1978.华北地震同日本地震的相关性[J].地球物理学报,22(4):415-438.
虞雪君,冯德益,蒋淳,等.1994.中国东部地区中强以上地震与日本海域地区强震的相关性研究[J].中国地震,10(1):38-46.
张国民.1989.关于我国大陆地区地震大形势的研究[M].北京:地震出版社:1-263.
张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.2004.中国大陆活动地块与强震活动关系[J].中国科学(D辑),34(7):1-12.
张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学(D辑),33(增刊):12-20.
池田安隆,島崎邦彦,山崎晴雄.1996.活断層とは何か[M].東京:東京大学出版会:1-240.
地震防災研究課.2004.日本の地震防災:活断層[M].東京:文部科学省:4-27.
茂木清夫.1976.巨大地震论[J].数理科学,158:16-23.
佐藤比呂志,平田直.2000.内陸大規模地震の震源断層を探る[J].科学,70(1):58-65.
#12
Hamilton J D.1994.刘明志译.1999.时间序列分析(Ti me Series Analysis)[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社:1-998.
Dickey D A,Fuller WA.1979.Distribution of the esti mationfor autoregressionti me series with a unit root[J].Journalof American Statistical Association,74(336):427-432.
Engle R F,Granger C.1987.Co-integration and error correction:Representation,esti mation,andtesting[J].Econi me-trica,55(2):251-276.
Granger C WJ.1969.Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods[J].Econometrica,37(3):424-438.
Johansen S,Juselius K.1990.Maxi mumlikelihood esti mation andinferences on cointegration-with applications to the de-mand for money[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,52(2):169-210.
Johansen S.1995.Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models[M].Oxford:Oxford Uni-versity Press:1-278.
马宏生,张国民,刘杰,等.2003.中国大陆及其邻区强震活动与活动地块关系研究[J].地学前缘,10(增刊):74-80.
吴佳翼,郁曙君,何淑韵.1978.华北地震同日本地震的相关性[J].地球物理学报,22(4):415-438.
虞雪君,冯德益,蒋淳,等.1994.中国东部地区中强以上地震与日本海域地区强震的相关性研究[J].中国地震,10(1):38-46.
张国民.1989.关于我国大陆地区地震大形势的研究[M].北京:地震出版社:1-263.
张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.2004.中国大陆活动地块与强震活动关系[J].中国科学(D辑),34(7):1-12.
张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学(D辑),33(增刊):12-20.
池田安隆,島崎邦彦,山崎晴雄.1996.活断層とは何か[M].東京:東京大学出版会:1-240.
地震防災研究課.2004.日本の地震防災:活断層[M].東京:文部科学省:4-27.
茂木清夫.1976.巨大地震论[J].数理科学,158:16-23.
佐藤比呂志,平田直.2000.内陸大規模地震の震源断層を探る[J].科学,70(1):58-65.
#12
Hamilton J D.1994.刘明志译.1999.时间序列分析(Ti me Series Analysis)[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社:1-998.
Dickey D A,Fuller WA.1979.Distribution of the esti mationfor autoregressionti me series with a unit root[J].Journalof American Statistical Association,74(336):427-432.
Engle R F,Granger C.1987.Co-integration and error correction:Representation,esti mation,andtesting[J].Econi me-trica,55(2):251-276.
Granger C WJ.1969.Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods[J].Econometrica,37(3):424-438.
Johansen S,Juselius K.1990.Maxi mumlikelihood esti mation andinferences on cointegration-with applications to the de-mand for money[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,52(2):169-210.
Johansen S.1995.Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models[M].Oxford:Oxford Uni-versity Press:1-278.
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