云南景谷M_s6.6级地震前瞻性预测回顾及其震后趋势分析
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摘要
基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,作者曾对普洱地震区未来震情进行前瞻性预测分析,给出了该地震区强震震级、震中经纬度、震源深度以及临界Benioff应变值四要素预测结果.将上述预测结果与2014年10月7日云南景谷MS6.6级地震参数进行比较,表明:四要素预测值与实际值相差不大,对普洱地震区的前瞻性中期预测结果可信.研究表明:2007年普洱ML6.4级震群事件是2014年景谷MS6.6级地震的直接导火索,2014年云南景谷MS6.6级地震并非主震事件,该地震区未来还将发生MS6.4~6.8级地震.预计在向临界状态演化过程中,该地震区还将发生不超过MS6.0级的preshock事件.
Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and associated prediction method developed by us,the prediction results,including the magnitude,place,critical strain,and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for the Pu'er seismic zone have been published in advance.In comparison with the Jinggu MS6.6 earthquake in Yunnan province occurred on 7 October 2014,they are almost identical, which indicates that our prospective prediction results are credible.Moreover,it is shown that the most immediate cause leading to the Jinggu MS 6.6 earthquake in Yunnan province in 2014 is attributed to the ML6.4 earthquake swarm events in 2007.Moreover,it is found that the Jinggu MS6.6 earthquake in Yunnan province is not a main shock and an earthquake of MS 6.4~6.8 will occur in the Pu'er seismic zone with some preshock events that are less than MS6.0.
Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and associated prediction method developed by us,the prediction results,including the magnitude,place,critical strain,and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for the Pu'er seismic zone have been published in advance.In comparison with the Jinggu MS6.6 earthquake in Yunnan province occurred on 7 October 2014,they are almost identical, which indicates that our prospective prediction results are credible.Moreover,it is shown that the most immediate cause leading to the Jinggu MS 6.6 earthquake in Yunnan province in 2014 is attributed to the ML6.4 earthquake swarm events in 2007.Moreover,it is found that the Jinggu MS6.6 earthquake in Yunnan province is not a main shock and an earthquake of MS 6.4~6.8 will occur in the Pu'er seismic zone with some preshock events that are less than MS6.0.
引文
Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L,et al.2014d.Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the northeastChina,north China and Taiwan.Progress in Geophys.(inChinese),29(2):535-554,doi:10.6038/pg20140210.
Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L,et al.2014c.Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the northwestChina and Tibet.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(3):1046-1067,doi:10.6038/pg20140308.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2014b.Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the east China,south China and southwest China.Progress in Geophys.(inChinese),29(3):1033-1045,doi:10.6038/pg20140307.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2014a.The definition of seismogenic period of strong earthquakes for some seismic zones insouthwest China.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(4):1526-1540,doi:10.6038/pg20140407.
Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,et al.2010a.Brittle failure mechanism of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system andexploration on a new way for earthquake prediction.ChineseJ.Geophys.(in Chinese),53(4):1001-1014,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.04.025.
Qin S Q,Xue L.2011.A summary of prediction for the Yingjiang MS 5.8 earthquake in Yunnan and the Burma MS7.2earthquakeas well as the analysis on the earthquake situation after theearthquake.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),26(2):462-468,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2011.02.010.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Li G L,et al.2012.The verification of prospective prediction for the ZhaoTong earthquakes on 7September 2012.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),27(5):1837-1840,doi:10.6038/j.issn.1004-2903.2012.05.001.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Li G L,et al.2013.The verification of prospective prediction for the Minxian-Zhangxian MS 6.6earthquake in Gansu province and an analysis on the futureearthquake situation.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),28(4):1860-1868,doi:10.6038/pg20130427.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Li G l,et al.2014f.The verification of prospectiveprediction for the Lushan MS7.0earthquake on 20 April 2013and an analysis on future earthquake situation.Progress inGeophys.(in Chinese),29(1):141-147,doi:10.6038/pg20140118.
Qin S Q,Xue L,LI P,et al.2014e.A review of prospective prediction for the Yutian 7.3earthquake in Xinjiang provinceand an analysis on future earthquake situation.ChineseJ.Geophys.(in Chinese),57(2):679-684,doi:10.6038/cjg20140231.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Wang Y Y,et al.2010b.Further verifications on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches along aseismogenic fault systemand discussions on some science issues.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),25(3):749-758,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2010.03.002.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Xu X W,et al.2010c.A prediction of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions and analysis ofthe seismogenic process of the Wenchuan MW 7.9earthquake.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),53(11):2639-2650,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.11.012.
秦四清,李培,薛雷,等.2014a.中国西南地区某些地震区强震孕育周期界定.地球物理学进展,29(4):1526-1540,doi:10.6038/pg20140407.
秦四清,李培,薛雷,等.2014b.华东、华南与西南地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(3):1033-1045,doi:10.6038/pg20140307.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷,等.2014c.西北与西藏地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(3):1046-1067,doi:10.6038/pg20140308.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷,等.2014d.东北、华北与台湾地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(2):535-554,doi:10.6038/pg20140210.
秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.2010a.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索.地球物理学报,53(4):1001-1014,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.04.025.
秦四清,薛雷.2011.云南盈江MS5.8级地震和缅甸MS7.2级地震预测总结及震后趋势分析.地球物理学进展,26(2):462-468,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2011.02.010.
秦四清,薛雷,王媛媛,等.2010b.对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论的进一步验证及有关科学问题的讨论.地球物理学进展,25(3):749-758,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2010.03.002.
秦四清,薛雷,李培,等.2014e.新疆于田7.3级地震前瞻性预测回顾及其震后趋势分析.地球物理学报,57(2):679-684,doi:10.6038/cjg20140231.
秦四清,薛雷,李国梁,等.2012.云南昭通“9·7地震”的前瞻性预测验证.地球物理学进展,27(5):1837-1840,doi:10.6038/j.issn.1004-2903.2012.05.001.
秦四清,薛雷,李国梁,等.2013.甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震的前瞻性预测验证及震后趋势分析.地球物理学进展,28(4):1860-1868,doi:10.6038/pg20130427.
秦四清,薛雷,李国梁,等.2014f.四川省芦山“4·20”7.0级地震的前瞻性预测验证及震后趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(1):141-147,doi:10.6038/pg20140118.
秦四清,薛雷,徐锡伟,等.2010c.川滇地区未来强震预测与汶川MW7.9级地震孕震过程分析.地球物理学报,53(11):2639-2650doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.11.012.
Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L,et al.2014c.Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the northwestChina and Tibet.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(3):1046-1067,doi:10.6038/pg20140308.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2014b.Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the east China,south China and southwest China.Progress in Geophys.(inChinese),29(3):1033-1045,doi:10.6038/pg20140307.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2014a.The definition of seismogenic period of strong earthquakes for some seismic zones insouthwest China.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(4):1526-1540,doi:10.6038/pg20140407.
Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,et al.2010a.Brittle failure mechanism of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system andexploration on a new way for earthquake prediction.ChineseJ.Geophys.(in Chinese),53(4):1001-1014,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.04.025.
Qin S Q,Xue L.2011.A summary of prediction for the Yingjiang MS 5.8 earthquake in Yunnan and the Burma MS7.2earthquakeas well as the analysis on the earthquake situation after theearthquake.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),26(2):462-468,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2011.02.010.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Li G L,et al.2012.The verification of prospective prediction for the ZhaoTong earthquakes on 7September 2012.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),27(5):1837-1840,doi:10.6038/j.issn.1004-2903.2012.05.001.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Li G L,et al.2013.The verification of prospective prediction for the Minxian-Zhangxian MS 6.6earthquake in Gansu province and an analysis on the futureearthquake situation.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),28(4):1860-1868,doi:10.6038/pg20130427.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Li G l,et al.2014f.The verification of prospectiveprediction for the Lushan MS7.0earthquake on 20 April 2013and an analysis on future earthquake situation.Progress inGeophys.(in Chinese),29(1):141-147,doi:10.6038/pg20140118.
Qin S Q,Xue L,LI P,et al.2014e.A review of prospective prediction for the Yutian 7.3earthquake in Xinjiang provinceand an analysis on future earthquake situation.ChineseJ.Geophys.(in Chinese),57(2):679-684,doi:10.6038/cjg20140231.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Wang Y Y,et al.2010b.Further verifications on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches along aseismogenic fault systemand discussions on some science issues.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),25(3):749-758,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2010.03.002.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Xu X W,et al.2010c.A prediction of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions and analysis ofthe seismogenic process of the Wenchuan MW 7.9earthquake.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),53(11):2639-2650,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.11.012.
秦四清,李培,薛雷,等.2014a.中国西南地区某些地震区强震孕育周期界定.地球物理学进展,29(4):1526-1540,doi:10.6038/pg20140407.
秦四清,李培,薛雷,等.2014b.华东、华南与西南地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(3):1033-1045,doi:10.6038/pg20140307.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷,等.2014c.西北与西藏地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(3):1046-1067,doi:10.6038/pg20140308.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷,等.2014d.东北、华北与台湾地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(2):535-554,doi:10.6038/pg20140210.
秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.2010a.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索.地球物理学报,53(4):1001-1014,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.04.025.
秦四清,薛雷.2011.云南盈江MS5.8级地震和缅甸MS7.2级地震预测总结及震后趋势分析.地球物理学进展,26(2):462-468,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2011.02.010.
秦四清,薛雷,王媛媛,等.2010b.对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论的进一步验证及有关科学问题的讨论.地球物理学进展,25(3):749-758,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2010.03.002.
秦四清,薛雷,李培,等.2014e.新疆于田7.3级地震前瞻性预测回顾及其震后趋势分析.地球物理学报,57(2):679-684,doi:10.6038/cjg20140231.
秦四清,薛雷,李国梁,等.2012.云南昭通“9·7地震”的前瞻性预测验证.地球物理学进展,27(5):1837-1840,doi:10.6038/j.issn.1004-2903.2012.05.001.
秦四清,薛雷,李国梁,等.2013.甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震的前瞻性预测验证及震后趋势分析.地球物理学进展,28(4):1860-1868,doi:10.6038/pg20130427.
秦四清,薛雷,李国梁,等.2014f.四川省芦山“4·20”7.0级地震的前瞻性预测验证及震后趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(1):141-147,doi:10.6038/pg20140118.
秦四清,薛雷,徐锡伟,等.2010c.川滇地区未来强震预测与汶川MW7.9级地震孕震过程分析.地球物理学报,53(11):2639-2650doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.11.012.
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