中国城市主要自然灾害风险评价研究(英文)
摘要
本文依据灾害系统理论和中国自然灾害数据库,构建了反映城市承灾体的综合城市化水平(CL)指标,并在此基础上得到城市脆弱性水平指数。考虑对城市具有结构性破坏和易于造成交通灾情的主要灾种,即水灾、地震、滑坡—泥石流、台风、沙尘暴,构建了反映城市主要致灾因子的综合自然灾害强度(QC)指标,并得到城市综合自然灾害强度指数。据此,在定性分析的基础上,通过半定量计算,将中国城市主要自然灾害风险划分为高风险、较高风险、中等风险、较低风险、低风险5个等级,编制了中国城市自然灾害风险评价图,并对灾害链的综合风险评价作了进一步的探讨。
According to disaster system theory and the natural disaster database of China,this paperbuilds the urban vulnerability indexon the basis of the integrated urbanization level index(CL) of hazard-affected bodies;and considering the structural damage and the influence on traffic of different naturaldisasters,this paper chooses five major disaster types(including flood,earthquake,debris flow-rockslide,typhoon and dust storm) to build and compute the integrated intensity index of major natural haz-ards(QC).Then through qualitative analysis and semi-quantitative calculation,the integrated urban riskof major natural disasters in china is divided into five grades,namely very high,high,medium,lowandvery lowgrades,and the corresponding assessment map is worked out.At last,some further discussion isdone about the integrated risk assessment of natural disaster chains.
According to disaster system theory and the natural disaster database of China,this paperbuilds the urban vulnerability indexon the basis of the integrated urbanization level index(CL) of hazard-affected bodies;and considering the structural damage and the influence on traffic of different naturaldisasters,this paper chooses five major disaster types(including flood,earthquake,debris flow-rockslide,typhoon and dust storm) to build and compute the integrated intensity index of major natural haz-ards(QC).Then through qualitative analysis and semi-quantitative calculation,the integrated urban riskof major natural disasters in china is divided into five grades,namely very high,high,medium,lowandvery lowgrades,and the corresponding assessment map is worked out.At last,some further discussion isdone about the integrated risk assessment of natural disaster chains.
引文
[1]中国新闻网:中国城市化率进入快速增长期[EB/OL].http://www.chinanews.com.cn/news/2005/2005-06-02/26/581726.shtml.
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[3]Wang Jing’ai,Wang Jue,Ye Tao.Hazard assessment of urbanflood disaster and sustainable development in China[J].JournalofBeijing Normal University(Social Science),2004,(3):138-143.[王静爱,王珏,叶涛.中国城市水灾危险性与可持续发展[J].北京师范大学学报:人文社会科学版,2004,(3):138-143.]
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[9]Wang Jing’ai,Shi Peijun,Wang Ying,et al.Urban natural dis-aster regionalization of China[J].Journal ofNatural Disasters,2005,14(6):42-46.[王静爱,史培军,王瑛,等.中国城市自然灾害区划编制[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):42-46]
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[12]Zhou Li,Shi Peijun,Chenjin,et al.Application of compoundnight light index derived from DMSP/OLS data to urbanization a-nalysis in china in the 1990s[J].Journal ofGeography,2003,58(6):901-902.[卓莉,史培军,陈晋,等.20世纪90年代中国城市时空变化特征———基于灯光指数CNLI方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2003,58(6):901-902.]
[13]Ben Wisner,Piers Blaikie,Terry Cannon,et al.At Risk SecondEdiction[M].New York:Routledge,2003.
[14]Shi Peijun.The theory of disaster research and its practice[J].Journal ofNanjing University(Natural Science),1991,(11):37-42.[史培军.灾害研究的理论与实践[J].南京大学学报:自然科学版,1991,自然灾害研究专辑(11):37-42.]
[2]Editor group of“Urban Development Report of China”,ChineseMayor Association.2003-2004 Urban Development Report of Chi-na[M].Beijing:Electronic Industry Press,2005.[中国市长协会《中国城市发展报告》编委会.2003—2004中国城市发展报告[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2005.]
[3]Wang Jing’ai,Wang Jue,Ye Tao.Hazard assessment of urbanflood disaster and sustainable development in China[J].JournalofBeijing Normal University(Social Science),2004,(3):138-143.[王静爱,王珏,叶涛.中国城市水灾危险性与可持续发展[J].北京师范大学学报:人文社会科学版,2004,(3):138-143.]
[4]Xu Wei,Wang Jing’ai,Shi Peijun,et al.Hazard degree assess-ment of urban earthquake disaster in China[J].Journal ofNatu-ral Disasters,2004,13(1):9-15.[徐伟,王静爱,史培军,等.中国城市地震危险度评价[J].自然灾害学报,2004,13(1):9-15.]
[5]Huang Chongfu.Theory and Practice of Natural Disaster Risk As-sessment[M].Beijing:Science Press,2004.[黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.]
[6]Arthue Lerner-Lam.Global natural disaster risk hotspots:Transi-tion to a regional approach[C]∥Shi Peijunet al,eds.Proceed-ings of the Fifth Annual ILASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated DisasterRisk Management.Beijing:Beijing Normal University,2005.
[7]Liu Xilin.Risk regionalization research of rock slide[J].JournalofGeologic Mechanics,2000,6(4):37-42.[刘希林.泥石流风险区划研究[J].地质力学学报,2000,6(4):37-42.]
[8]Ding Yan,Shi Peijun.Fuzzy risk assessment model of typhoonhazard[J].Journal ofNatural Disasters,2002,11(1):34-43.[丁燕,史培军.台风灾害的模糊风险评估模型[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(1):34-43.]
[9]Wang Jing’ai,Shi Peijun,Wang Ying,et al.Urban natural dis-aster regionalization of China[J].Journal ofNatural Disasters,2005,14(6):42-46.[王静爱,史培军,王瑛,等.中国城市自然灾害区划编制[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):42-46]
[10]Cutter S.Vulnerability to environmental hazards[J].Progress inHuman Geography,1996,20(4):529-539.
[11]Hossain S MN.Assessing Human Vulnerability due to Environ-mental Change:Concepts and Assessment Methodologies[D].Stockholm:Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringRoyal Institute of Technology,2001.
[12]Zhou Li,Shi Peijun,Chenjin,et al.Application of compoundnight light index derived from DMSP/OLS data to urbanization a-nalysis in china in the 1990s[J].Journal ofGeography,2003,58(6):901-902.[卓莉,史培军,陈晋,等.20世纪90年代中国城市时空变化特征———基于灯光指数CNLI方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2003,58(6):901-902.]
[13]Ben Wisner,Piers Blaikie,Terry Cannon,et al.At Risk SecondEdiction[M].New York:Routledge,2003.
[14]Shi Peijun.The theory of disaster research and its practice[J].Journal ofNanjing University(Natural Science),1991,(11):37-42.[史培军.灾害研究的理论与实践[J].南京大学学报:自然科学版,1991,自然灾害研究专辑(11):37-42.]
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