对昭通6.5级地震的事前预测和事后分析
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摘要
依据卫星热异常和仪器观测数据异常,于2013年11月做出东经102°~104°,北纬25°~27°附近将发生6~7级地震,时间在3个月内的预测.2014年4月根据卫星热异常和云异常,继续确认了震级和地点,但是对地震的时间预测上不好把握.2014年8月3日昭通市鲁甸县发生6.5级地震,证实我们预测的震级和地点准确,时间在上年度正确,短期月份错误.通过分析地震日期,发现鲁甸地震和汶川地震有一定的相似性.
According to satellite thermal anomaly and instrument data anomaly,we make a prediction in November 2013 that there will be a M6 ~ 7 earthquake in the area around longitude 102° ~ 104°,latitude 25° ~ 27° in3 months. According to the satellite thermal anomaly and cloud anomaly,we verify this prediction again in April2014,while the quake time is difficult to estimate. On 2014 August 3 a M6. 5 earthquake hit Zhaotong area.This quake shows that our prediction about location and magnitude is good,in terms of the time,the yearly prediction is right,while the short term prediction is wrong. Through the analysis about the quake date,we find that there exists similarity between Wenchuan earthquake and Zhaotong earthquake.
According to satellite thermal anomaly and instrument data anomaly,we make a prediction in November 2013 that there will be a M6 ~ 7 earthquake in the area around longitude 102° ~ 104°,latitude 25° ~ 27° in3 months. According to the satellite thermal anomaly and cloud anomaly,we verify this prediction again in April2014,while the quake time is difficult to estimate. On 2014 August 3 a M6. 5 earthquake hit Zhaotong area.This quake shows that our prediction about location and magnitude is good,in terms of the time,the yearly prediction is right,while the short term prediction is wrong. Through the analysis about the quake date,we find that there exists similarity between Wenchuan earthquake and Zhaotong earthquake.
引文
[1]耿庆国.中国旱震关系研究[M].北京:海洋出版社,1985.
[2]孙宗强.白赤交角的周期在川滇地区M≥6.7级地震预测中的应用[J].防灾科技学院学报,2012,14(3):32-36.
[3]刘金江,赵全发,郭广猛.对雅安7.0级地震的事前预测和事后分析[J].南阳师范学院学报,2014,13(3):29-33.
[2]孙宗强.白赤交角的周期在川滇地区M≥6.7级地震预测中的应用[J].防灾科技学院学报,2012,14(3):32-36.
[3]刘金江,赵全发,郭广猛.对雅安7.0级地震的事前预测和事后分析[J].南阳师范学院学报,2014,13(3):29-33.
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