2008年5月12日M_w7.9汶川地震导致的周边断层应力变化
摘要
2008年5月12日,四川龙门山断裂发生Mw7.9强烈地震,导致重大的人员伤亡和经济损失.据预测,汶川地震余震将持续至少1年,并且不排除发生强余震可能.因此,判断余震可能发生区域,圈定震区周边未来可能发生地震活动的范围,对灾区人员安置、灾后恢复重建以及加强震灾及次生灾害防御具有重要的参考价值.同时,汶川地震及邻区地震活动性为将来研究板内逆冲型地震的同震应力变化,并检验地震的应力触发作用提供了一个非常难得的机会.根据地震的静态触发原理,利用弹性位错理论和分层地壳模型计算了汶川地震引起的周边断层同震应力变化,分析了汶川地震对龙门山及周边各主要活动断层地震活动性的作用和影响.结果表明,汶川地震增加了鲜水河断裂(道孚-康定段)、东昆仑断裂(玛曲-南坪段)、青川断裂、岷江断裂南端以及彭县-灌县断裂、江油-广元断裂、江油-灌县断裂上库仑应力的积累,将提升这些断层上地震发生的概率.由于这些地区人口密集,应加强这些地区的地震监测和灾害预警.青川断裂上记录到的余震表明主震已经触发了该断层的地震活动,余震有向该区迁移的趋势,应密切关注地震向北迁移的态势.彭县-灌县断裂、北川-映秀断裂南段目前发生的余震很少,所积累的构造应力未充分释放,同震库仑应力的加载有可能在今后触发该区较强余震,应对该区实施重点监测.汶川地震有效降低了抚边河断裂、虎牙断裂、哈南-青山湾断裂、龙泉山断裂以及迭部-白龙江断裂上库仑应力的积累,这些区域的地震发生概率将因库仑应力减小而降低.汉中一带、西秦岭北缘断裂上库仑应力变化微小,汶川地震的静态触发效应不足波及此处.
引文
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34周荣军,何玉林,马声浩,等.四川小金抚边河断裂的晚第四纪活动特征.地震研究,1999,22(4):376—381
35He J K,Chery J.Slip rates of the Altyn Tagh,Kunlun and Karakorum faults(Tibet)from3D mechanical modeling.Earth Planet Sci Lett,2008,274:50—58
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37李勇,周荣军,董顺利,等.汶川地震的地表破裂与逆冲走滑作用.成都理工大学学报(自然科学版),2008,35(4):404—413
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39Harris R A,Simpson R W.Suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows:a comparison of Coulomb and rate-and-state failure.J Geophys Res,1998,103:24439—24451
40Freed A M.Earthquake triggering by static,dynamic,and postseismic stress transfer.Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci,2005,33:335—367
41王卫民,赵连锋,李娟,等.四川汶川8.0级地震震源过程.地球物理学报,2008,51(5):1403—1410
2Stein R S.Earthquake conversations.Sci Am,2003,288:72—79
3King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J.Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes.Bull Seismol Soc Am,1994,84:935—953
4Stein R S.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence.Nature,1999,402:605—609
5Deng J,Sykes L R.Evolution of the stress field in southern California and triggering of moderate-size earthquakes:a200-year perspec-tive.J Geophys Res,1997,102:9859—9886
6Deng J,Sykes L R.Stress evolution in southern California and triggering of moderate-,small-,and micro-size earthquakes.J Geophys Res,1997,102:24411—24435
7Geller R J,Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y,et al.Earthquake cannot be predicted.Science,1997,275:1616
8Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.Progressive failure on the Northern Anatolian fault since1939by earthquake stress triggering.Geophys J Int,1997,128:594—604
9Barka A.The17august1999Izmit earthquake.Science,1999,285:1858—1859
10徐锡伟,于贵华,马文涛,等.中国大陆中轴构造带地壳最新构造变动样式及其动力学内涵.地学前缘,2003,10(特刊):160—167
11韩渭宾,蒋国芳.川滇地区强震活动分布特征及其与地壳块体构造背景关系的研究.地震学报,2004,26(2):211—222
12Kirby E,Whipple K X,Burchfiel B C,et al.Neotectonics of the Min Shan,China:implications for mechanisms driving Quaternary de-formation along the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau.Geol Soc Am Bull,2000,112:375—393
13Kirby E,Harkins N,Wang E,et al.Slip rate gradients along the eastern Kunlun fault.Tectonics,2007,26,doi:10.1029/2006TC002033
14Allen C R,Luo Z,Qian H,et al.Field study of a highly active fault zone:the Xianshuihe fault of southwestern China.Geol Soc Am Bull,1991,103:1178—1199
15张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽,等.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑移速率、复发周期和构造成因.地球物理学报,2008,51(4):1066—1073
16Okada Y.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space.Bull Seismol Soc Am,1992,82:1018—1040
17Parsons T,Chen J,Kirby E.Stress changes from the2008Wenchuan earthquake and increase hazard in the Sichuan basin.Nature,2008,454:509—510
18Wang R,Kuempel H J.Poroelasticity:efficient modeling of strongly coupled,slow deformation processes in a multi-layered half-space.Geophysics,2003,68(2):705—717
19Wang R,Lorenzo F,Roth F.Computation of deformation induced by earthquakes in a multi-layered elastic crust—FORTRAN pro-grams EDGRN/EDCMP.Comput Geosci-UK,2003,29:195—207
20Jaeger J C,Cook N G.Fundamentals of Rock Mechanics.3rd ed.London:Chapman&Hall,1979
21Scholz C H.The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting.New York:Cambridge University Press,1990.439
22Parsons T,Stein R S,Simpson R W,et al.Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity:a comparison between limited-offset oblique and major strike-slip faults.J Geophys Res,1999,104:20183—20202
23王阎昭,王恩宁,沈王康,等.其于GPS资料约束反演川滇区主要断裂现今活动速率.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2008.38(5):582—597
24Ji C,Hayes G.Preliminary result of the May12,2008Mw7.9eastern Sichuan.2008,http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2008/us2008ryan/finite_fault.php
25Ji C,Wald D J,Helmberger D V.Source description of the1999Hector Mine,California earthquake.Part I:wavelet domain inversion theory and resolution analysis.Bull Seism Soc Am,2002,92(4):1192—1207
26Bassin C,Laske G,Masters G.The current limits of resolution for surface wave tomography in North America.EOS Trans AGU,2000,81:897
27Nishimura N,Yagi Y.Rupture process for May12,2008Sichuan earthquake(Ver.2).2008,http://www.geol.tsukuba.ac.jp/~nisimura/20080512/
28Akaike H.Likelihood and the Bayes Procedure,in Bayesian Statistics.Valencia:University Press,1980.143—166
29Wang R.A simple orthonormalization method for the stable and efficient computation of Green's functions.Bull Seism Soc Am,1999,89:733—741
30Wang R,Lorenzo F,Roth F.PSGRN/PSCMP—a new code for calculating co-and post-seismic deformation,geoid and gravity changes based on the viscoelastic-gravitational dislocation theory.Comput Geosci-UK,2006,32(4):527—541
31Lin J,Stein R S.Stress triggering in thrust and subduction earthquakes and stress interaction between the southern San Andreas and thrust and strike-slip faults.J Geophys Res,2004,109(10):1029—1047
32邓启东,张培震,冉勇,等.中国活动构造基本特征.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2002,33(12):1020—1031
33张培震,邓启东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2003,33(增刊Ⅱ):12—20
34周荣军,何玉林,马声浩,等.四川小金抚边河断裂的晚第四纪活动特征.地震研究,1999,22(4):376—381
35He J K,Chery J.Slip rates of the Altyn Tagh,Kunlun and Karakorum faults(Tibet)from3D mechanical modeling.Earth Planet Sci Lett,2008,274:50—58
36郑勇,马宏生,吕坚,等.汶川地震大余震的震源机制解及其与发震构造的关系.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2009,39(4):413—426
37李勇,周荣军,董顺利,等.汶川地震的地表破裂与逆冲走滑作用.成都理工大学学报(自然科学版),2008,35(4):404—413
38Burchifiel B C,Royden L H,van de Hilst R D,et al.A geological and geophysical context for the Wenchuan earthquake of12May2008,Sichuan,People’s Republic of China.GSA Today,2008,18(7):10.1130/GSATG18A.1
39Harris R A,Simpson R W.Suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows:a comparison of Coulomb and rate-and-state failure.J Geophys Res,1998,103:24439—24451
40Freed A M.Earthquake triggering by static,dynamic,and postseismic stress transfer.Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci,2005,33:335—367
41王卫民,赵连锋,李娟,等.四川汶川8.0级地震震源过程.地球物理学报,2008,51(5):1403—1410
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