日本福岛放射性污染物在北太平洋海水中的输运模拟与预测
摘要
针对2011年3月11日地震和海啸引发的日本福岛核电站放射性污染物泄漏事件,利用ROMS海洋模式对北太平洋海洋环流进行了模拟,并在该海洋环流数值模拟结果基础上,对核泄漏物质在海洋中的输运过程进行了10年的中长期模拟和预测.模拟结果显示:放射性污染物通过北太平洋低位涡水的输运通道到达我国近海的时间约为12年;表层放射性污染物随着海流最远输运到140°W后便分为南北两支,南支随着赤道流系向西输运,可以影响到菲律宾以东洋面,北支到达北美西海岸后随沿岸流向南北输运,北向输运可以影响到白令海峡;200m层的放射性污染物进入海洋后的输运分为3个部分:一部分沿深层海水流动向西南输运;一部分随低位涡水团输运影响台湾以东海区;还有一部分随黑潮延伸体向东输运,并分为两支,其中一支会输运到北美西海岸,另外一支向南影响到夏威夷岛周围海域.最后,结合污染物漂移扩散模型估算了放射性污染物在海洋中的浓度扩散趋势:放射性同位素137Cs的浓度高值区逐渐向东移动,2年后可达太平洋海盆中部,8年后可达北美西海岸,虽然影响范围不断扩大,但其极值浓度在不断降低.
引文
1Chino M,Nakayama H,Nagai H,et al.Preliminary estimation of release amounts of131I and137Cs accidentally discharged from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant into the atmosphere.J Nucl Sci Technol,2011,48:1129-1134
2Butler D.Radioactivity spreads in Japan.Nature,2011,471:555-556
3Yasunari T J,Stohl A,Hayano R S,et al.Cesium-137deposition and contamination of Japanese soils due to the Fukushima nuclear accident,Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,2011,108:19530-19534
4Bowyer T W,Biegalski S R,Cooper M,et al.Elevated radioxenon detected remotely following the Fukushima nuclear accident.J Environ Radioact,2011,102:681-687
5Masson O,Baeza A,Bieringer J,et al.Tracking of airborne radionuclides from the damaged Fukushima Dai-lchi nuclear reactors by European Networks.Environ Sci Technol,2011,45:7670-7677
6乔方利,王关锁,赵伟,等.2011年3月日本福岛核泄漏物质输运扩散路径的情景模拟和预测.科学通报,2011,56:964-971
7Yutaka K.Monitoring of aerosols in Tsukuba after Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant incident in2011.J Environ Radioact,2011,doi:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2011.10.011
8Stohl A,Seibert P,Wotawa G,et al.Xenon-133and caesium-137releases intothe atmosphere from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant:Determination of the source term,atmospheric dispersion,and deposition.Atmos Chem Phys,2011,11:28319-28394
9Morino Y,Ohara T,Nishizawa M.Atmospheric behavior,deposition,and budget of radioactive materials from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in March2011.Geophys Res Lett,2011,38:L00G11
10Fang G H,Wei Z X,Wang Y G,et al.An extended variable-grid global ocean circulation model and its preliminary results of the Equatorial Pavific Circulation.Acta Oceanol Sin,2004,23:23-30
11徐永福,李春阳,赵亮,等.一个太平洋海盆尺度环流模式及其模拟结果.大气科学,2006,30:927-938
12莫慧尔,俞永强,刘海龙,等.一个高分辨率太平洋-印度洋海盆环流模式的初步结果.热带海洋学报,2009,28:56-65
13Cai Y,Wang Z G.Simulation of Pacific Ocean Circulation based on Global Warming from1960to1999.Mar Sci Bull,2010,12:10-15
14Tsumune D,Tsubono T,Aoyama M,et al.Distribution of oceanic137Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant simulated numerically by a regional ocean model.J Environ Radioact,2011,doi:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2011.10.007
15Malcolm J,Roberts A,Clayton M,et al.Impact of resolution on the Tropical Circulation in a matrix of coupled models.J Cli m,2009,22:2541-2556
16Shchepetkin A F,McWilliams J C.The Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS):A split-explicit,free-surface,topography following coordinates oceanic model.Ocean Model,2005,9:347-404
17Gates W L,Mitchell J F B,Boer G J,et al.Climate modeling,climate prediction and model validation.In:Houghton J T,Canllendar B A,Varney S K,eds.Climate Change1992,The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment.Cambrige:Cambrige University Press,1992.101-134
18赵亮,徐永福.边界条件对北太平洋海盆尺度环流模式的影响.海洋科学进展,2006,24:292-300
19高松,吕咸青.HYCOM模式对赤道及北太平洋海表温度的模拟.海洋科学进展,2007,25:257-267
20Xia C S,Qiao F L,Zhang Q H,et al.Numerical modeling of the quasi-global ocean circulation base on POM.J Hydrodyn,2004,16:537-543
21Kobashi F,Kawamura H.Variation of sea surface height at periods of65-220days in the subtropical gyre of the North Pacific.J Geophys Res,2001,106:817-831
22Suga T,Kimio H.The subtropical mode water circulation in the North Pacific.J Phys Oceanogr,1995,25:958-970
23Liu Q Y,Hu H B.A subsurface pathway for low potential vorticity transport from the central North Pacific toward Taiwan Island.Geophys Res Lett,2007,34:L12710,doi:10.1029/2007/GL029510
2Butler D.Radioactivity spreads in Japan.Nature,2011,471:555-556
3Yasunari T J,Stohl A,Hayano R S,et al.Cesium-137deposition and contamination of Japanese soils due to the Fukushima nuclear accident,Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,2011,108:19530-19534
4Bowyer T W,Biegalski S R,Cooper M,et al.Elevated radioxenon detected remotely following the Fukushima nuclear accident.J Environ Radioact,2011,102:681-687
5Masson O,Baeza A,Bieringer J,et al.Tracking of airborne radionuclides from the damaged Fukushima Dai-lchi nuclear reactors by European Networks.Environ Sci Technol,2011,45:7670-7677
6乔方利,王关锁,赵伟,等.2011年3月日本福岛核泄漏物质输运扩散路径的情景模拟和预测.科学通报,2011,56:964-971
7Yutaka K.Monitoring of aerosols in Tsukuba after Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant incident in2011.J Environ Radioact,2011,doi:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2011.10.011
8Stohl A,Seibert P,Wotawa G,et al.Xenon-133and caesium-137releases intothe atmosphere from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant:Determination of the source term,atmospheric dispersion,and deposition.Atmos Chem Phys,2011,11:28319-28394
9Morino Y,Ohara T,Nishizawa M.Atmospheric behavior,deposition,and budget of radioactive materials from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in March2011.Geophys Res Lett,2011,38:L00G11
10Fang G H,Wei Z X,Wang Y G,et al.An extended variable-grid global ocean circulation model and its preliminary results of the Equatorial Pavific Circulation.Acta Oceanol Sin,2004,23:23-30
11徐永福,李春阳,赵亮,等.一个太平洋海盆尺度环流模式及其模拟结果.大气科学,2006,30:927-938
12莫慧尔,俞永强,刘海龙,等.一个高分辨率太平洋-印度洋海盆环流模式的初步结果.热带海洋学报,2009,28:56-65
13Cai Y,Wang Z G.Simulation of Pacific Ocean Circulation based on Global Warming from1960to1999.Mar Sci Bull,2010,12:10-15
14Tsumune D,Tsubono T,Aoyama M,et al.Distribution of oceanic137Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant simulated numerically by a regional ocean model.J Environ Radioact,2011,doi:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2011.10.007
15Malcolm J,Roberts A,Clayton M,et al.Impact of resolution on the Tropical Circulation in a matrix of coupled models.J Cli m,2009,22:2541-2556
16Shchepetkin A F,McWilliams J C.The Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS):A split-explicit,free-surface,topography following coordinates oceanic model.Ocean Model,2005,9:347-404
17Gates W L,Mitchell J F B,Boer G J,et al.Climate modeling,climate prediction and model validation.In:Houghton J T,Canllendar B A,Varney S K,eds.Climate Change1992,The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment.Cambrige:Cambrige University Press,1992.101-134
18赵亮,徐永福.边界条件对北太平洋海盆尺度环流模式的影响.海洋科学进展,2006,24:292-300
19高松,吕咸青.HYCOM模式对赤道及北太平洋海表温度的模拟.海洋科学进展,2007,25:257-267
20Xia C S,Qiao F L,Zhang Q H,et al.Numerical modeling of the quasi-global ocean circulation base on POM.J Hydrodyn,2004,16:537-543
21Kobashi F,Kawamura H.Variation of sea surface height at periods of65-220days in the subtropical gyre of the North Pacific.J Geophys Res,2001,106:817-831
22Suga T,Kimio H.The subtropical mode water circulation in the North Pacific.J Phys Oceanogr,1995,25:958-970
23Liu Q Y,Hu H B.A subsurface pathway for low potential vorticity transport from the central North Pacific toward Taiwan Island.Geophys Res Lett,2007,34:L12710,doi:10.1029/2007/GL029510
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