基于自然和社会属性的堰塞湖风险评估
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摘要
为完善堰塞湖应急处置和恢复重建工作内容,综合考虑堰塞湖风险的自然属性和社会属性,选择堰塞湖规模、堰塞体物质组成、堰塞体高度、集雨面积、人口密度、经济密度和心理恐慌度等7个指标构成堰塞湖风险评估指标体系。运用广义熵值法,以"5.12"汶川地震形成的9个堰塞湖为样本进行风险评估。评估结果显示,人口密度、心理恐慌度等指标在风险评估中所占权重较大,说明社会属性指标对堰塞湖风险的影响较为明显,在堰塞湖应急处置和恢复重建工作中应该对社会属性的风险因素提高重视。
To perfect the emergency disposal and post-disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction of the landslide lake,based on the natural and social property,seven indexes were chosen to constitute the risk evaluation system of landslide lake,which included landslide lake scale,composition makeup of landslide dam,landslide dam height,rainwater-collecting area,population density,economy density and psychology panic degrees.Then the risk evaluation of nine landslide lakes reduced by Wenchuan Earthquake was made based on generalized entropy method.The result showed that the social property indexes have an obvious effect on landslide lake risk,so the social property risk factor should be paid more attention in the emergency disposal and the post-disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction.
To perfect the emergency disposal and post-disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction of the landslide lake,based on the natural and social property,seven indexes were chosen to constitute the risk evaluation system of landslide lake,which included landslide lake scale,composition makeup of landslide dam,landslide dam height,rainwater-collecting area,population density,economy density and psychology panic degrees.Then the risk evaluation of nine landslide lakes reduced by Wenchuan Earthquake was made based on generalized entropy method.The result showed that the social property indexes have an obvious effect on landslide lake risk,so the social property risk factor should be paid more attention in the emergency disposal and the post-disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction.
引文
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[2]Chang Dongshenng,Zhang Limin.Analysis of overtoppingfailure of Hong Shihe Landslide Dam after Wenchuan Earth-quake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2009,17(1):50-55.[常东升,张利民.红石河堰塞湖漫顶溃坝风险评估[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):50-55.]
[3]Cui Peng,Han Yongshun,Chen Xiaoqing.Distribution andrisk analysis of dammed lakes reduced by Wenchuan Earth-quake[J].Journal of Sichuan University:Engineering Sci-ence Edition,2009,41(3):35-42.[崔鹏,韩用顺,陈晓清.汶川地震堰塞湖分布规律与风险评估[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2009,41(3):35-42.]
[4]Kuang Shangfu,Wang Xiaogang,Huang Jinchi,et al.Risk a-nalysis and impact assessment of dam-break inbarrier lake[J].China Water Resources,2008(16):17-21.[匡尚富,汪小刚,黄金池,等.堰塞湖溃坝风险及其影响分析评估[J].中国水利,2008(16):17-21.]
[5]Liang Jun.Formation and management methods of earth-quake lake[C]//Wenchuan earthquake engineering earth-quake investigation analysis and research.Beijing:SciencePress,2009:1056-1061.[梁军.地震堰塞湖的形成及其治理方法[C]//汶川大地震工程震害调查分析与研究.北京:科学出版社,2009:1056-1061.]
[6]Sun Dandan,He Xiaoyan,Huang Jinchi,et al.The riskgrade determination model and parameter sensitivity analysisof Barrier Lakes[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2010(12):97-99.[孙丹丹,何晓燕,黄金池,等.堰塞湖风险等级判定模型及其参数敏感分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2010(12):97-99.]
[7]Guan Shiting.Psychosocial factors analysis of our groupcontradictions high-risk[J].Journal of Hubei AdministrationInstitute,2010(1):73-77.[管仕廷.我国群体性矛盾高发的社会心理因素分析[J].湖北行政学院学报,2010(1):73-77.]
[8]中华人民共和国水利部.SL450—2009堰塞湖风险等级划分标准[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2009.
[9]Tao Xiaoyan.Urban competitiveness research based on im-proved generalized entropy method[J].Science&Technol-ogy Progress and Policy,2009,26(14):131-133.[陶晓燕.基于改进广义熵值法的城市竞争力研究[J].科技进步与对策,2009,26(14):131-133.]
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