长江三角洲地区人类生命体多自然灾害综合风险度评估
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摘要
自然灾害综合风险评估是当前灾害研究领域的主要难点之一。以经济发达、灾害频繁的长三角地区为研究区,选取县级行政区域为基本分析单元,以人类生命体作为受灾对象,尝试进行了区域多灾种综合风险度分析。致灾因子方面选取地震、台风、洪水;选择性别比例、年龄结构、交通状况、通信设施和医疗状况等构建脆弱性评价指标,以人口密度作为承灾体暴露性指标。以历史上各致灾因子造成的年均死亡人数为权重依据,将各致灾因子进行加和得到多致灾因子的危险度指数;使用熵值法对脆弱性的各相关指标进行分析计算,得出脆弱性指数。将得到的多致灾因子危险度指数、承灾体脆弱性指数和暴露性指数合并,得出各县的人类生命多灾种综合风险度指数。结果表明:高风险度地区主要分布在上海市中心区域、台州市的南部。所得风险度指数反映了长三角区域内各县区人口受到多灾种综合影响的相对强度。
Multi-risk assessment is one of the major difficulties in natural hazards research area.In this paper,the multi-risk of natural hazards to human life was assessed at county level in the Yangtze River Delta area,where is densely populated and economically developed,and highly prone to natural hazards.Three types of hazards including earthquakes,typhoons and floods were mainly focused.The multi-hazard index is the sum of each hazard factor multiplied by its weight,which is calculated according to the historical yearly average death caused by this hazard.Gender ratio,age structure,traffic condition,telecommunication facilities and medical condition were selected to establish the vulnerability index with the help of entropy method,and the exposure index was represented by the population density.Then,the multi-risk of natural hazards to human life was calculated by aggregating the multi-hazard index,the vulnerability index and the exposure index.In the end,the multi-risk map of natural hazards to human life was obtained.Multi-risk index indicates the total risk of multi-hazard to the human life in counties of the Yangtze River Delta.The results show that central Shanghai,north Taizhou and southwest Hangzhou are high risky areas.
Multi-risk assessment is one of the major difficulties in natural hazards research area.In this paper,the multi-risk of natural hazards to human life was assessed at county level in the Yangtze River Delta area,where is densely populated and economically developed,and highly prone to natural hazards.Three types of hazards including earthquakes,typhoons and floods were mainly focused.The multi-hazard index is the sum of each hazard factor multiplied by its weight,which is calculated according to the historical yearly average death caused by this hazard.Gender ratio,age structure,traffic condition,telecommunication facilities and medical condition were selected to establish the vulnerability index with the help of entropy method,and the exposure index was represented by the population density.Then,the multi-risk of natural hazards to human life was calculated by aggregating the multi-hazard index,the vulnerability index and the exposure index.In the end,the multi-risk map of natural hazards to human life was obtained.Multi-risk index indicates the total risk of multi-hazard to the human life in counties of the Yangtze River Delta.The results show that central Shanghai,north Taizhou and southwest Hangzhou are high risky areas.
引文
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[2]史培军.三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):1-9.SHI Peijun.Third discussion of theory and practice for systematic studies on disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2002,11(3):1–9.(inChinese)
[3]史培军.四论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):1-7.SHI Peijun.Theory and practice on disaster system research in a fourth time[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2005,14(6):1-7.(in Chinese)
[4]Schmidt-ThoméP.The Spatial Effects and Management of Natural and Technological Hazards in Europe[R].Luxembourg:European SpatialPlanning and Observation Network(ESPON)Project 1.3.1,Geological Survey of Finland,2005.
[5]Fleischhauer M,Greiving S,Schlusemann B,et al.Multi-risk Assessment of Spatially Relevant Hazards in Europe[R].Nürnberg:ESMG Sym-posium,11-13,October,2005.
[6]Munich Reinsurance Company.Topics-Annual Review:Natural Catastrophes 2002[R].Munich:Munich Re Group,2003.
[7]South Carolina Emergency Management Division Office of the Adjutant General.State of South Carolina Hazards Assessment 2005[R].SouthCarolina:University of South Carolina,2006.
[8]Bell R,Glade T.Multi-hazard analysis in natural risk assessments[C]//In:Brebbia C A(ed):International Conference on Computer Simula-tion in Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation.Rhodes:WIT Press,2004,197-206.
[9]ARMONIA-Applied Multi-Risk Mapping of Natural Hazards for Impact Assessment[R].Report on New Methodology for Multi-risk Assess-ment and the Harmonization of Different Natural Risk Maps.Genova:European Community,2006.
[10]FEMA.FEMA’s software for estimating potential losses from disasters[EB/OL].Washington,D.C.:Federal Emergency Management Agency,[2009-06-15].URL:http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/
[11]Dilley M,Chen R S,Deichmann U,et al.Natural Disaster Hotspots.A Global Risk Analysis[M].Washington,D.C.:World Bank,2005.
[12]Arnold M,Chen R S,Deichmann U,et al.Natural Disaster Hotspots Case Studies[M].Washington,D.C.:World Bank,2006.
[13]Wood M,Vetere A L,Mushtaq F.Management of Natural and Technological Hazards in Central and Eastern European Candidate countries(PE-CO)[R].Brussels:Joint Research Centre,2003.
[14]Jaime S,Maureen W,Robert J.Risk Mapping of Industrial Hazards in New Member States[R].Brussels:Joint Research Centre,2007.
[15]十年尺度中国地震灾害损失预测研究组.中国地震灾害损失预测图集[M].北京:科学出版社,1995.The Research Group on Prediction of Chinese Earthquake Losses With Scale of Ten Years.Atlas of Earthquake Risk Prediction in China[M].Beijing:Science Press,1995.(in Chinese)
[16]Blaikie P,Cannon T,Davis I,et al.At Risk:Natural Hazards,People’s Vulnerability and Disasters[M].London:Routledge,1994.
[17]J C Villagrán De León.Vulnerability-A Conceptual and Methodological Review[M].Bonn:UNU-EHS Publications,2006.
[18]高庆华,马宗晋,聂高忠.地质科学在自然灾害综合研究中的作用[J].地球学报,1996,17(3):241-248.GAO Qinghua,MA Zongjin,NIE Gaozhong.Applications of geosciences in the comprehensive studies on natural disasters[J].Acta GeosientiaSinica,1996,17(3):241-248.(in Chinese)
[19]国家科委国家计委国家经贸委自然灾害综合研究组.中国自然灾害区划研究进展[M].北京:海洋出版社,1998.Natural Disaster Research Group of the State Science and Technology Commission,the State Planning Commission,and the State Economic andTrade Commission.Recent Progress on Natural Disaster Zonation in China[M].Beijing:Ocean Press,1998.(in Chinese)
[20]林齐宁.决策分析[M].北京:北京邮电大学出版社,2003.LIN Jining.Decision Analysis[M].Beijing:Beijing University of Posts and Telecomunications Press,2003.(in Chinese)
[21]乔家君.改进的熵值法在河南省可持续发展能力评估中的应用[J].资源科学,2004,26(1):113-119.QIAO Jiajun.Application of improved entropy method in Henan sustainable development evaluation[J].Resources Science,2004,26(1):113-119.(in Chinese)
[22]薛丽芳,欧向军,谭海樵.基于熵值法的淮海经济区城市中心性评价[J].地理与地理信息科学,2009,25(3):63-66.XUE Lifang,OU Xiangjun,TAN Haiqiao.Evaluation of urban centricity based on entropy method:a case study of Huaihai Economic Zone[J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,2009,25(3):63-66.(in Chinese)
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