内蒙古雪灾保险费率的厘定——基于自然灾害系统理论的研究
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摘要
中国巨灾保险赔款占直接经济损失的比率比国际平均水平低的多,2008年初南方雨雪冰冻灾害和"5.12"汶川地震两次巨灾过后,国家加紧推进巨灾保险体系的建立。其中,巨灾保险费率厘定是基础。基于自然灾害系统理论,构建了以危险性曲线和脆弱性曲线为核心的巨灾风险保险费率厘定方法体系,改进了以往农业保险仅从致灾因子角度厘定费率的片面性。最后,借鉴美国洪水保险、日本地震保险以灾种为对象(而非承灾体种类为对象)构建巨灾保险体系的优势,以雪灾保险为例,厘定了内蒙古12盟市雪灾保险费率。结果显示,位于中部地区的锡林郭勒盟雪灾保险费率最高,为3.10%;位于西部地区的阿拉善盟、乌海市雪灾保险费率最低,为1.09%。
In view of the fact that the ratio of insurance indemnity to direct losses caused by catastrophe in China is far lower than the international average level,China currently promotes establishment of catastrophe insurance system after the freezing rain and snowstorm disaster and the May 12th Wenchuan earthquake in 2008.Estimation of premium rate is the foundation of the system.In this paper,the author designed a method to calculate the disaster premium rate based on the risk curve and vulnerability curve in the natural disaster system theory,improved the recent estimation technique of crop premium rate,which only considers hazard factors.Then,noticing that Federal flood insurance and Japanese earthquake insurance are propitious to risk management,because their classification is based on the disaster type other than the insured objectives,we take heavy snow disaster as an case study and calculate premium rate of snow disaster risk in 12 cities of Inner Mongolia.The result shows that snow disaster premium rate in Xilinguole League is the highest(3.10%),while that in Alashan League and Wuhai League is the lowest(1.09%).
In view of the fact that the ratio of insurance indemnity to direct losses caused by catastrophe in China is far lower than the international average level,China currently promotes establishment of catastrophe insurance system after the freezing rain and snowstorm disaster and the May 12th Wenchuan earthquake in 2008.Estimation of premium rate is the foundation of the system.In this paper,the author designed a method to calculate the disaster premium rate based on the risk curve and vulnerability curve in the natural disaster system theory,improved the recent estimation technique of crop premium rate,which only considers hazard factors.Then,noticing that Federal flood insurance and Japanese earthquake insurance are propitious to risk management,because their classification is based on the disaster type other than the insured objectives,we take heavy snow disaster as an case study and calculate premium rate of snow disaster risk in 12 cities of Inner Mongolia.The result shows that snow disaster premium rate in Xilinguole League is the highest(3.10%),while that in Alashan League and Wuhai League is the lowest(1.09%).
引文
[1]中华人民共和国民政部.王振耀司长在线谈做好雨雪冰冻灾害倒房恢复重建工作[EB/OL].(2008-02-27)[2010-01-10].http://www.mca.gov.cn.Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People's Republic of China.Director Wang Zhenyao talked online about restoration and reconstruction project of the great2008Chinese ice storm[EB/OL].(2008-02-27)[2010-01-10].http://www.mca.gov.cn.(in Chinese)
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[8]刘丽,代宏霞.中国自然灾害保险风险度综合评判与区划[J].山地学报,2004,22(4):477-482.LIU Li,DAI Hongxia.The comprehensive assessment and regionalization of natural disaster insurance risk in China[J].Journal of Mountain Sci-ence,2004,22(4):477-482.(in Chinese)
[9]刘丽.自然灾害保险风险分析的数学模型与改进[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2004(增刊):258-262.LIU Li.The mathematical risk analysis models for the natural disaster's insurance and their improvement[J].Journal of Basic Science and Engi-neering,2004(S):258-262.(in Chinese)
[10]王丽红、杨汭华、田志宏,等.非参数核密度法厘定玉米区域产量保险费率研究:以河北安国市为例[J].中国农业大学学报,2007,12(1):90-94.WANG Lihong,YANG Ruihua,TIAN Zhihong,et al.Maize GRP rate of premium deciding by nonprarametric kernel density:a case study on Anguo city,Hebei Province[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2007,12(1):90-94.(in Chinese)
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[12]张峭,王克.农作物生产风险分析的方法和模型[J].农业展望,2007,3(8):7-10.ZHANG Qiao,WANG Ke.The analysis method and model for crop production risk[J].Agricultural Outlook,2007,3(8):7-10.(in Chi-nese)
[13]史培军.灾害研究的理论与实践[J].南京大学学报,1991,27(专刊):37-42.SHI Peijun.On the theory of disaster research and its practice[J].Journal of Nanjing University,1991,27(Special Edition):37-42.(in Chi-nese)
[14]中国市场学会.中国市场学会学会标准--风险组织的风险管理技术规范(讨论稿)[EB/OL].(2008-12-28)[2010-01-10].China Marketing Association.Standard compiled by China Marketing Association:risk management criterion of risk organization[EB/OL].(2008-12-28)[2010-01-10].(in Chinese)
[15]Goodwin K,Ker A P.Nonparametric estimation of crop yield distributions:implications for rating group-risk crop insurance contracts[J].Ameri-can Journal of Agricultural Economics,1998,80:139-153.
[16]Goodwin B K,Ker A P.Nonparametric estimation of crop insurance rates revisited[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics.2000,83:463-478.
[17]沈建国.中国气象灾害大典[M].内蒙古卷.北京:气象出版社,2008:177-189.SHEN Jianguo.Chinese Climate Disasters Collections[M].Volume of inner Mongolia.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2008:177-189.(in Chinese)
[18]茆诗松.统计手册[M].北京:科学出版社,2003:168-169.MAO Shisong.Statistical Handbook[M].Beijing:Science Press,2003:168-169.(in Chinese)
[19]内蒙古自治区人民政府.内蒙古自治区人民政府下发2009年农业保险保费补贴实施方案[EB/OL].(2009-06-08)[2010-01-10]http://www.circ.gov.cn/web/site0/tab3591/i102531.htm INNER Mongolia Government.Inner Mongolia government published subsidy measures of agricultural insurance premium in2009[EB/OL].(2009-06-08)[2010-01-10].http://www.circ.gov.cn/web/site0/tab3591/i102531.htm(in Chinese)
[2]中华人民共和国保险监督管理委员会.南方雪灾保险赔付超40亿[EB/OL].(2009-4-24)[2010-01-10].http://www.circ.gov.cn.China Insurance Regulatory Commission.Insurance loss caused by the great2008Chinese ice storm totted up to CNY4billion[EB/OL].(2009-4-24)[2010-01-10].http://www.circ.gov.cn.(in Chinese)
[3]中华人民共和国民政部.汶川地震造成直接经济损失8451亿元[EB/OL].(2008-09-05)[2010-01-10].http://www.mca.gov.cn.Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People's Republic of China.Direct economic loss caused by Wenchuan earthquake totted up to CNY845.1billion[EB/OL].(2008-09-05)[2010-01-10].http://www.mca.gov.cn.(in Chinese)
[4]中华人民共和国保险监督管理委员会.汶川地震保险合计赔付16.6亿元[EB/OL].(2009-5-11)[2010-01-10].http://www.circ.gov.cn.China Insurance Regulatory Commission.Insurance loss caused by Wenchuan earthquake totted up to CNY1.66billion[EB/OL].(2009-5-11)[2010-01-10].http://www.circ.gov.cn.(in Chinese)
[5]新浪财经.地震保险应扩展为巨灾保险[EB/OL].(2008-12-24)[2010-01-10].http://finance.sina.com.cn.Sina.Earthquake insurance was advised to be enlarged to catastrophe insurance[EB/OL].(2008-12-24)[2010-01-10].http://finance.sina.com.cn.(in Chinese)
[6]史培军.中国自然灾害系统地图集(中英文对照)[M].北京:科学出版社,2003.SHI Peijun.Atlas of Natural Disaster System of China[M].Beijing:Science Press,2003.(in Chinese)
[7]黄崇福.综合风险评估的一个基本模式[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2008,16(3):371-381HUANG Chongfu.A basic model for assessing integrated risk[J].Journal of Basic Science and Engineering,2008,16(3):371-381.(in Chi-nese)
[8]刘丽,代宏霞.中国自然灾害保险风险度综合评判与区划[J].山地学报,2004,22(4):477-482.LIU Li,DAI Hongxia.The comprehensive assessment and regionalization of natural disaster insurance risk in China[J].Journal of Mountain Sci-ence,2004,22(4):477-482.(in Chinese)
[9]刘丽.自然灾害保险风险分析的数学模型与改进[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2004(增刊):258-262.LIU Li.The mathematical risk analysis models for the natural disaster's insurance and their improvement[J].Journal of Basic Science and Engi-neering,2004(S):258-262.(in Chinese)
[10]王丽红、杨汭华、田志宏,等.非参数核密度法厘定玉米区域产量保险费率研究:以河北安国市为例[J].中国农业大学学报,2007,12(1):90-94.WANG Lihong,YANG Ruihua,TIAN Zhihong,et al.Maize GRP rate of premium deciding by nonprarametric kernel density:a case study on Anguo city,Hebei Province[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2007,12(1):90-94.(in Chinese)
[11]陈新建,陶建平.基于风险区划的水稻区域产量保险费率研究[J].华中农业大学学报:社会科学版,2008(4):14-17.CHEN Xinjian,TAO Jianping.Study on GRP rate of rice production based on risk zoning[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University:So-cial Sciences Edition,2008(4):14-17.(in Chinese)
[12]张峭,王克.农作物生产风险分析的方法和模型[J].农业展望,2007,3(8):7-10.ZHANG Qiao,WANG Ke.The analysis method and model for crop production risk[J].Agricultural Outlook,2007,3(8):7-10.(in Chi-nese)
[13]史培军.灾害研究的理论与实践[J].南京大学学报,1991,27(专刊):37-42.SHI Peijun.On the theory of disaster research and its practice[J].Journal of Nanjing University,1991,27(Special Edition):37-42.(in Chi-nese)
[14]中国市场学会.中国市场学会学会标准--风险组织的风险管理技术规范(讨论稿)[EB/OL].(2008-12-28)[2010-01-10].China Marketing Association.Standard compiled by China Marketing Association:risk management criterion of risk organization[EB/OL].(2008-12-28)[2010-01-10].(in Chinese)
[15]Goodwin K,Ker A P.Nonparametric estimation of crop yield distributions:implications for rating group-risk crop insurance contracts[J].Ameri-can Journal of Agricultural Economics,1998,80:139-153.
[16]Goodwin B K,Ker A P.Nonparametric estimation of crop insurance rates revisited[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics.2000,83:463-478.
[17]沈建国.中国气象灾害大典[M].内蒙古卷.北京:气象出版社,2008:177-189.SHEN Jianguo.Chinese Climate Disasters Collections[M].Volume of inner Mongolia.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2008:177-189.(in Chinese)
[18]茆诗松.统计手册[M].北京:科学出版社,2003:168-169.MAO Shisong.Statistical Handbook[M].Beijing:Science Press,2003:168-169.(in Chinese)
[19]内蒙古自治区人民政府.内蒙古自治区人民政府下发2009年农业保险保费补贴实施方案[EB/OL].(2009-06-08)[2010-01-10]http://www.circ.gov.cn/web/site0/tab3591/i102531.htm INNER Mongolia Government.Inner Mongolia government published subsidy measures of agricultural insurance premium in2009[EB/OL].(2009-06-08)[2010-01-10].http://www.circ.gov.cn/web/site0/tab3591/i102531.htm(in Chinese)
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