自然灾害链的场效机理与区链观
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摘要
在分析2004年12月、2005年3月印尼苏门答腊9.0、8.7级巨震和2005年6月17—23日西江大洪水前后数千张卫星遥感图像,以及其他资料的基础上,提出了灾害链的场效机理与区链观。认为相邻异域链事件间不具备直接的传承关系。链事件的发生是由所在区域场的动力学环境、介质结构及诸多物理、化学因素组合的不均衡性与连续的、自然的系统演化过程决定的。前发链事件具有即时场效应和后期调整场效应,这些效应会以包含隐性、较小尺度事件的区域链接的方式向后传送。场中每点的动变皆有后效,且体现在或作用于过程、区域上,而非个别点上;或者说,作用于时空邻点上而非远程点上。各类动变效应在场与过程上的叠加与演化,会在条件"成熟"时导致较大链事件的发生。具有一定的内在联系,其结构特征、运动方式、动力环境、演化过程具有相对整体性的区域与其边界,是自然灾害链的发生背景,也是判定两事件间是否相关的重要判据。
On the basis of analyzing thousands satellite remote sensing images in 2004 and 2005 and plenty of other data,the concept of the field effect mechanism and region conversion of natural hazard chain are presented in this paper.There is no direct transferring relation among adjacent chain events in different places,and occurrence of the events in a chain is decided by the disproportion of the dynamic surroundings,the medium structure,the combination of physical and chemical factors,and the consecutive natural developing process.The foregoing event in a chain possesses the instantaneous effect and the latter adjustment effect,which will transfer in a form of region conversion,including incalculable recessive or smaller events.Each change has aftereffect which acts on the process and the region instead of the individual points,or acts on adjacent space-time points instead of long-range ones.Accumulation and development of all effects in the field and the process will cause larger chain events.The region with some inner relation,whose structure characteristic,movement mode,dynamic environment and developing process seem to be a whole,and their borders are the setting of natural hazard chains.Whether two events occur in such a region is an important criterion judging whether they possess chain correlation.
On the basis of analyzing thousands satellite remote sensing images in 2004 and 2005 and plenty of other data,the concept of the field effect mechanism and region conversion of natural hazard chain are presented in this paper.There is no direct transferring relation among adjacent chain events in different places,and occurrence of the events in a chain is decided by the disproportion of the dynamic surroundings,the medium structure,the combination of physical and chemical factors,and the consecutive natural developing process.The foregoing event in a chain possesses the instantaneous effect and the latter adjustment effect,which will transfer in a form of region conversion,including incalculable recessive or smaller events.Each change has aftereffect which acts on the process and the region instead of the individual points,or acts on adjacent space-time points instead of long-range ones.Accumulation and development of all effects in the field and the process will cause larger chain events.The region with some inner relation,whose structure characteristic,movement mode,dynamic environment and developing process seem to be a whole,and their borders are the setting of natural hazard chains.Whether two events occur in such a region is an important criterion judging whether they possess chain correlation.
引文
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[9]Sigurjón Jónsson,Paul Segall,Rikke Pedersen,et al.震后地形变与孔隙压力瞬态变化的相互关系[J].曹玲玲,译.国际地震动态,2006,(7):102-106.
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[11]薄万举,刘广余,郭良迁.印度洋8.7级特大地震后川滇地区地震活动趋势判定[J].地震研究,2006,29(1):1-6.
[12]王双绪,张希,张晓亮,等.8.1级震后青藏块体东北部水平形变态势与地震有序活动研究[J].高原地震,2004,16(1):1-8.
[13]陈启林,王皓,毛华锋,等.印尼8.7级和8.5级强震后江苏体应变同震效应分析[J].防灾技术高等专科学校学报,2005,7(2):47-49.
[14]姚清林,强祖基.大地震前地表温度场的演化特征[J].科学研究月刊,2006,(3):6-8.
[2]高建国,姚清林,强祖基,等.印尼苏门答腊大地震和珠江大洪水的关系研究[J].气象与减灾研究,2006,29(2):8-17.
[3]高建国,郭增建,王涌泉,等.苏门答腊大地震印度洋震区放气现象研究[J].气象与减灾研究,2007,30(2):28-32.
[4]姚清林,强祖基,王弋平.青藏高原地震前CO的排放与卫星热红外增温异常[J].地球科学进展,2005,20(5):506-510.
[5]强祖基,孔令昌,李玲芝,等.气热说——卫星热红外增温异常[C]∥北京大学国际地质科学学术研讨会论文集.北京:地震出版社.1998:176-188.
[6]姚清林,强祖基.震前云下增温异常及其时段特征[J].地震,2004,24(3):79-86.
[7]郭铁栓,刘杰,郑大林,等.印尼8.7级巨震后云南地震活动的频度变化[J].中国地震,2006,22(2):204-208.
[8]郭安宁,张惠芳.地球物理灾害链有关物理问题的讨论[J].气象与减灾研究,2006,29(4):40-43.
[9]Sigurjón Jónsson,Paul Segall,Rikke Pedersen,et al.震后地形变与孔隙压力瞬态变化的相互关系[J].曹玲玲,译.国际地震动态,2006,(7):102-106.
[10]谭凯,王琪,王晓强,等.震后形变的解析模型和时空分布特征[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2005,25(4):23-26.
[11]薄万举,刘广余,郭良迁.印度洋8.7级特大地震后川滇地区地震活动趋势判定[J].地震研究,2006,29(1):1-6.
[12]王双绪,张希,张晓亮,等.8.1级震后青藏块体东北部水平形变态势与地震有序活动研究[J].高原地震,2004,16(1):1-8.
[13]陈启林,王皓,毛华锋,等.印尼8.7级和8.5级强震后江苏体应变同震效应分析[J].防灾技术高等专科学校学报,2005,7(2):47-49.
[14]姚清林,强祖基.大地震前地表温度场的演化特征[J].科学研究月刊,2006,(3):6-8.
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