基于投入-产出模型的灾害经济影响评价方法
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摘要
在前人研究的基础上,对灾害经济影响进行了分析,并介绍了ARIO(adaptive regional input-output)模型,最终提出了一种考虑产品供需平衡和灾后生产能力限制的灾害经济影响评价投入-产出模型,并利用该模型对汶川地震经济影响做了尝试性的计算。该模型克服了传统投入-产出模型生产结构不变的约束,同时也避免了可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型过度优化社会资源的现象。
This paper analyzes economic impact of disasters based on previous studies on the disaster economy,briefly introduces the ARIO model and finally,gives an input-output model which considers constraints of production capacity and a balance between supply and demand to evaluate the economic impact of disasters.Then this model was used to evaluate the economic impact of Wenchuan earthquake.This model overcomes the constraint of the constant production structure assumption in traditional input-output model,and avoids over-optimization of social resources in the computable general equilibrium(CGE) model
This paper analyzes economic impact of disasters based on previous studies on the disaster economy,briefly introduces the ARIO model and finally,gives an input-output model which considers constraints of production capacity and a balance between supply and demand to evaluate the economic impact of disasters.Then this model was used to evaluate the economic impact of Wenchuan earthquake.This model overcomes the constraint of the constant production structure assumption in traditional input-output model,and avoids over-optimization of social resources in the computable general equilibrium(CGE) model
引文
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[3]王宝华,付强,谢永刚,冯艳.国内外洪水灾害经济损失评估方法综述[J].灾害学,2007,22(3):95-99.
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[8]Rose A,Benavides J,Chang S E,Szczesniak P&Lim.The Regional Economic Impact of an Earthquake:Direct and Indirect Effects of ElectricityLifeline Disruptions.Journal of Regional[J].Science,2007,37(3):437-458.
[9]路琮,魏一鸣,范英,许伟宣.灾害对国民经济影响的定量分析模型及其应用.自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):15-20.
[10]Christopher W.Anderson,Joost R.Santos and Yacov Y.Haimes.ARisk-based Input?Output Methodology for Measuring the Effects of the Au-gust 2003 Northeast Blackout[J].Economic Systems Research,2007,19(2):183-204.
[11]Albert E.Steenge,Marija Boc Karjova.Thinking about Imbalances in Post-catastrophe Economies:An Input?Output based Proposition[J].E-conomic Systems Research,2007,19(2):205?223.
[12]Stephane Hallegatte.An Adaptive Regional Input-Output Model and its Application to the Assessment of the Economic Cost of Katrina[J].RiskAnalysis,2008,28(3):779-799.
[13]张显东,沈荣芳.灾害与经济增长关系的定量分析[J].自然灾害学报,1995,4(4):23-26.
[14]张显东,广清.二要素多部门CGE模型的灾害经济研究[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(1):9-15.
[15]Satoshi Tsuchiya,Hirokazu Tatano and Norio Okada.Economic Loss Assessment due to Railroad and Highway Disruptions[J].Economic SystemsResearch,2007,19(2):147?162
[16]Rose A.Economic principles,issues,and research priorities in hazard loss estimation[M]//Y.Okuyama and S.E.Chang(Eds).ModelingSpatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters.New York:Springer,2004.
[17]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴2008[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2008.
[18]国家统计局.中国工业统计年鉴2007[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
[2]季运文,施其洲,叶玉玲,吴峰,刘晓佳,李友好.城市轨道交通灾害性天气的定义、分类及研究方向[J].百家论坛,2005,7(6):23-27.
[3]王宝华,付强,谢永刚,冯艳.国内外洪水灾害经济损失评估方法综述[J].灾害学,2007,22(3):95-99.
[4]王海滋,黄渝祥.地震灾害间接经济损失的概念及分类[J].自然灾害学报,1997,6(2):11-16.
[5]冯志泽,王宝银,于善清.地震灾害间接经济损失估计[J].灾害学,1998,13(4):23-27.
[6]黄渝祥,杨宗跃,邵颖红.灾害间接经济损失的计量[J].灾害学,1994,9(3):7-11.
[7]徐嵩龄.灾害经济损失概念及产业关联型间接经济损失计量[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(4):7-15.
[8]Rose A,Benavides J,Chang S E,Szczesniak P&Lim.The Regional Economic Impact of an Earthquake:Direct and Indirect Effects of ElectricityLifeline Disruptions.Journal of Regional[J].Science,2007,37(3):437-458.
[9]路琮,魏一鸣,范英,许伟宣.灾害对国民经济影响的定量分析模型及其应用.自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):15-20.
[10]Christopher W.Anderson,Joost R.Santos and Yacov Y.Haimes.ARisk-based Input?Output Methodology for Measuring the Effects of the Au-gust 2003 Northeast Blackout[J].Economic Systems Research,2007,19(2):183-204.
[11]Albert E.Steenge,Marija Boc Karjova.Thinking about Imbalances in Post-catastrophe Economies:An Input?Output based Proposition[J].E-conomic Systems Research,2007,19(2):205?223.
[12]Stephane Hallegatte.An Adaptive Regional Input-Output Model and its Application to the Assessment of the Economic Cost of Katrina[J].RiskAnalysis,2008,28(3):779-799.
[13]张显东,沈荣芳.灾害与经济增长关系的定量分析[J].自然灾害学报,1995,4(4):23-26.
[14]张显东,广清.二要素多部门CGE模型的灾害经济研究[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(1):9-15.
[15]Satoshi Tsuchiya,Hirokazu Tatano and Norio Okada.Economic Loss Assessment due to Railroad and Highway Disruptions[J].Economic SystemsResearch,2007,19(2):147?162
[16]Rose A.Economic principles,issues,and research priorities in hazard loss estimation[M]//Y.Okuyama and S.E.Chang(Eds).ModelingSpatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters.New York:Springer,2004.
[17]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴2008[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2008.
[18]国家统计局.中国工业统计年鉴2007[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007.
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