中国三大自然灾害空间自相关特征
|
摘要
中国是世界上受灾最严重的少数国家之一,地震、雪灾、洪涝三大自然灾害发生频率高、分布广,研究它们的空间分布以及空间聚集性,对防灾减灾工作以及储备库救灾物资的配置有重大意义。对灾害进行空间自相关性分析可以反映灾害的空间分布和聚集的情况。该文利用震中分布图,断裂带分布图,雪灾频率图和洪涝频率图得到中国三大自然灾害的分布图,对它们进行空间自相关分析,得到三种自然灾害的空间自相关性分布图。结果表明:三种自然灾害的发生具有显著的空间自相关性,全局自相关系数(Moran’sI)的Z值都大于0.01的置信水平的2.54。局部自相关分析结果表明,三种自然灾害都主要呈现高高正相关(HH)或低低正相关(LL)的聚集方式,较少或没有高低负相关(HL)或低高负相关(LH)的聚集方式,说明三种自然灾害各自的发生区域集中,具有各自的中心。地震主要发生在我国的西南地区和台湾省,雪灾主要发生在内蒙古自治区和新疆维吾尔自治区,洪涝主要发生在我国的东南地区。
China is a country which is strongly struck by disasters,and three natural disasters occurr frequently and distribute widely.Studying their spatial distribution and spatial aggregation is significant to disaster prevention,reduction and relief supplies configuration.The spatial distribution and aggregation of disasters can be showed by spatial autocorrelation analysis on the three natural disasters.In this paper,the spatial distribution of the three natural disasters were got from epicenter distribution map,fault zone distribution map,snow and ice disasters frequency map and flooding frequency map.The spatial autocorrelation distribution maps were got from spatial autocorrelation analysis on the spatial distribution of the three natural disasters.The results showed that the three natural disasters reached significant spatial autocorrelation level because the three Z indices of the global correlation coefficient(Moran's I) were greater than 2.54 at the 0.01 confidence level.Local autocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial distributions of three natural disasters mainly showed high-high positive autocorrelation(HH) or low-low positive autocorrelation(LL) and little high-low negative autocorrelation(HL) or low-high negative autocorrelation(LH).Three natural disasters occurred in such regions and had their own centers.The earthquake occurred mainly in the southwest region of China and Taiwan Province,the snow and ice disasters mainly in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,floods mainly in the southeast region of China.
China is a country which is strongly struck by disasters,and three natural disasters occurr frequently and distribute widely.Studying their spatial distribution and spatial aggregation is significant to disaster prevention,reduction and relief supplies configuration.The spatial distribution and aggregation of disasters can be showed by spatial autocorrelation analysis on the three natural disasters.In this paper,the spatial distribution of the three natural disasters were got from epicenter distribution map,fault zone distribution map,snow and ice disasters frequency map and flooding frequency map.The spatial autocorrelation distribution maps were got from spatial autocorrelation analysis on the spatial distribution of the three natural disasters.The results showed that the three natural disasters reached significant spatial autocorrelation level because the three Z indices of the global correlation coefficient(Moran's I) were greater than 2.54 at the 0.01 confidence level.Local autocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial distributions of three natural disasters mainly showed high-high positive autocorrelation(HH) or low-low positive autocorrelation(LL) and little high-low negative autocorrelation(HL) or low-high negative autocorrelation(LH).Three natural disasters occurred in such regions and had their own centers.The earthquake occurred mainly in the southwest region of China and Taiwan Province,the snow and ice disasters mainly in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,floods mainly in the southeast region of China.
引文
[1]任燕.21世纪中国灾害警钟急鸣[J].世界科技研究与发展,2001,23(2):77-79.Ren Yan.Research on the countermeasares of fighting and defending against natural calamitics in economic development in china[J].World Sci-tech R&D,2001,23(2):77-79.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[2]朱鹏英.四川汶川地震已确认69227人遇难17923人失踪[EB/OL].http://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/news/2008/09-25/1394600.shtml,2008-09-25.
[3]杨祎.快讯:青海省政府确认玉树地震最终死亡人数[EB/OL].http://www.cnr.cn/china/gdgg/201005/t20100531_506507864.html,2010-05-31.
[4]王小军.新疆雪灾死亡人数升至二十人[EB/OL].http://www.chinatibetnews.com/shehui/2010-01/27/content_394887.htm,2010-01-27.
[5]刘晓晶.历史上重大雪灾事件[EB/OL].http://www.weather.com.cn/static/html/article/20091117/141218.shtml,2009-11-17.
[6]巫峰.洪涝灾害造成全国2亿人(次)受灾损失2751.6亿[EB/OL].http://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2010/08-06/2452702.shtml,2010-08-06.
[7]2009年中国环境状况公报(气候与自然灾害)[EB/OL].http://www.caepi.org.cn/industry-report/23080.shtml,2010-06-03.
[8]黄芸玛.雪灾的特征及其成因分析-以青南高原为例[J].陕西师范大学继续教育学报(西安),2006,23(3):119-122.Huang Yunma.Characteristics and causes of snow-study of southern qinghai[J].Journal of Further Education of Shaanxi Normal University,2006,23(3):119-122.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[9]何慧,陆虹,欧艺.1959-200年广西西江流域洪涝气候特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2005,5(3):134-138.He Hui,Lu Hong,Ou Yi.Flood characteristics of the xijiang river basin in1959-2008[J].Vances in Climate Change Research,2005,5(3):134-138.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[10]杨子生.云南省金沙江流域洪涝灾害区划研究[J].山地学报,2002,20(s1),57-62.Yang Zisheng.Study on food and water-logging disaster regionalization in jinsha river basin of yunnan province[J].Journal of Mountain Science S1,2002,20(s1),57-62.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[11]Tobler W R.A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region[J].Economic Geography,1970,46:234-240.
[12]Griffith D.Spatial Autocorrelation:A Primer[M].Association of American Geographers,1987.
[13]封磊,洪伟,吴承祯,等.福州市人口分布的空间自相关分析[J].江西农业大学学报,2008,30(3):569-574.Feng Lei,Hong Wei,Wu Cheng-zhen et al.Analysis on the spatial autocorrelation of population distribution in fuzhou city[J].Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis,2008,30(3):569-574.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[14]武继磊,王劲峰,孟斌,等.2003年北京市SARS疫情空间相关性分析[J].浙江大学学报(农业与生命科学版),2005,31(1):97-101.Wu Jilei,Wang Jinfeng,Meng Bing.Spatial association analysis on epidemic of SARS in Beijing,2003[J].Journal of Zhejiang University(Agric and Life Sci),2005,31(1):97-101.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[15]张祥松,施雅风.中国的冰雪灾害及其发展趋势[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(2):76-85.Zhang Xiangsong,Shi Yafeng.The snow and ice disasters and its tendency in future on china journal of natural disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1996,5(2):76-85.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[16]刘会玉,林振山,张明阳.建国以来中国洪涝灾害成灾面积变化的小波分析[J].地理科学,2005,25(1):43-48.Liu Huiyu,Lin Zhenshan,Zhang Mingyang.Wavelet analysis of area affected by flood disaster in china after1949[J].Scientia Geographica Sinca,2005,25(1):43-48.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[17]高祥林,马晓静,李晓丽.亚洲东部“大三角”地震构造区的周边和深部动力环境[J].地学前缘,2010,17(4):33-42.Gao Xianglin,Ma Xiaojing,Li Xiaoli.A Surrounding and deep dynamic context of the great triangle-shaped seismic region in the eastern asia continent[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2010,17(4):33-42.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[18]柳艳香,汤懋苍,魏丽,等.青藏高原腹地1985年雪灾成因分析[J].高原气象,2000,19(2):52-58.Liu Yanxiang,Tang Maocang,Wei Li,et al.The analysis of causing the snow disaster on1985over central qinghai-xizang plateau[J].Plateau Meteorology,2000,19(2):52-58.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[19]周秉荣,申双和,李凤霞.青海高原牧区雪灾逐级判识模型[J].中国农业气象,2006,27(3):210-214.Zhou Bingrong,Shen Shuanghe,Li Fengxia.Gradual differentiating model for snow calamity in qinghai-tibet plateau[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2006,27(3):210-214.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[20]郝璐,王静爱,满苏尔,等.中国雪灾时空变化及畜牧业脆弱性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2002(11):42-48.Hao Lu,Wang Jingai,Man Suer,et al.Spatio-temporal change of snow disaster and analysis of vulnerability of animal husbandry in china[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2002,11(4):42-48.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[21]Yang Hui.Anomalous atmospheric circulation,heat sources and moisture sinks in relation to great precipitation anomalies in the yangtze river valley[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2001,(5):972-983.
[2]朱鹏英.四川汶川地震已确认69227人遇难17923人失踪[EB/OL].http://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/news/2008/09-25/1394600.shtml,2008-09-25.
[3]杨祎.快讯:青海省政府确认玉树地震最终死亡人数[EB/OL].http://www.cnr.cn/china/gdgg/201005/t20100531_506507864.html,2010-05-31.
[4]王小军.新疆雪灾死亡人数升至二十人[EB/OL].http://www.chinatibetnews.com/shehui/2010-01/27/content_394887.htm,2010-01-27.
[5]刘晓晶.历史上重大雪灾事件[EB/OL].http://www.weather.com.cn/static/html/article/20091117/141218.shtml,2009-11-17.
[6]巫峰.洪涝灾害造成全国2亿人(次)受灾损失2751.6亿[EB/OL].http://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2010/08-06/2452702.shtml,2010-08-06.
[7]2009年中国环境状况公报(气候与自然灾害)[EB/OL].http://www.caepi.org.cn/industry-report/23080.shtml,2010-06-03.
[8]黄芸玛.雪灾的特征及其成因分析-以青南高原为例[J].陕西师范大学继续教育学报(西安),2006,23(3):119-122.Huang Yunma.Characteristics and causes of snow-study of southern qinghai[J].Journal of Further Education of Shaanxi Normal University,2006,23(3):119-122.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[9]何慧,陆虹,欧艺.1959-200年广西西江流域洪涝气候特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2005,5(3):134-138.He Hui,Lu Hong,Ou Yi.Flood characteristics of the xijiang river basin in1959-2008[J].Vances in Climate Change Research,2005,5(3):134-138.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[10]杨子生.云南省金沙江流域洪涝灾害区划研究[J].山地学报,2002,20(s1),57-62.Yang Zisheng.Study on food and water-logging disaster regionalization in jinsha river basin of yunnan province[J].Journal of Mountain Science S1,2002,20(s1),57-62.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[11]Tobler W R.A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region[J].Economic Geography,1970,46:234-240.
[12]Griffith D.Spatial Autocorrelation:A Primer[M].Association of American Geographers,1987.
[13]封磊,洪伟,吴承祯,等.福州市人口分布的空间自相关分析[J].江西农业大学学报,2008,30(3):569-574.Feng Lei,Hong Wei,Wu Cheng-zhen et al.Analysis on the spatial autocorrelation of population distribution in fuzhou city[J].Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis,2008,30(3):569-574.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[14]武继磊,王劲峰,孟斌,等.2003年北京市SARS疫情空间相关性分析[J].浙江大学学报(农业与生命科学版),2005,31(1):97-101.Wu Jilei,Wang Jinfeng,Meng Bing.Spatial association analysis on epidemic of SARS in Beijing,2003[J].Journal of Zhejiang University(Agric and Life Sci),2005,31(1):97-101.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[15]张祥松,施雅风.中国的冰雪灾害及其发展趋势[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(2):76-85.Zhang Xiangsong,Shi Yafeng.The snow and ice disasters and its tendency in future on china journal of natural disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1996,5(2):76-85.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[16]刘会玉,林振山,张明阳.建国以来中国洪涝灾害成灾面积变化的小波分析[J].地理科学,2005,25(1):43-48.Liu Huiyu,Lin Zhenshan,Zhang Mingyang.Wavelet analysis of area affected by flood disaster in china after1949[J].Scientia Geographica Sinca,2005,25(1):43-48.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[17]高祥林,马晓静,李晓丽.亚洲东部“大三角”地震构造区的周边和深部动力环境[J].地学前缘,2010,17(4):33-42.Gao Xianglin,Ma Xiaojing,Li Xiaoli.A Surrounding and deep dynamic context of the great triangle-shaped seismic region in the eastern asia continent[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2010,17(4):33-42.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[18]柳艳香,汤懋苍,魏丽,等.青藏高原腹地1985年雪灾成因分析[J].高原气象,2000,19(2):52-58.Liu Yanxiang,Tang Maocang,Wei Li,et al.The analysis of causing the snow disaster on1985over central qinghai-xizang plateau[J].Plateau Meteorology,2000,19(2):52-58.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[19]周秉荣,申双和,李凤霞.青海高原牧区雪灾逐级判识模型[J].中国农业气象,2006,27(3):210-214.Zhou Bingrong,Shen Shuanghe,Li Fengxia.Gradual differentiating model for snow calamity in qinghai-tibet plateau[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2006,27(3):210-214.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[20]郝璐,王静爱,满苏尔,等.中国雪灾时空变化及畜牧业脆弱性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2002(11):42-48.Hao Lu,Wang Jingai,Man Suer,et al.Spatio-temporal change of snow disaster and analysis of vulnerability of animal husbandry in china[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2002,11(4):42-48.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[21]Yang Hui.Anomalous atmospheric circulation,heat sources and moisture sinks in relation to great precipitation anomalies in the yangtze river valley[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2001,(5):972-983.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心