日本大震与中国及邻区中强地震的遥相关
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摘要
将日本从北至南划分为5个区,分析1900—2011年3月共110a期间发生的67个Ms=6.9~9.0大震事件,与其后4a在中国及邻区发生的Ms≥6.0(极个别为Ms=5.5~5.8)共569个中强地震的对应比较.得出结论:(1)日本大震和中国及邻区中强震二者有很好的遥相关关系;(2)分析了日本各区与中国及邻区地震相对应的特点;(3)中国地区地震的滞后时间多为0.5~2.0a,最长4a;(4)用"遥相关法"预测2011—2013年期间,中国及邻区的中强地震危险区.年度预测与实际发生地震检验结果显示:预测的34个次地震危险区中,"报对"28个次,约占总预测个次的82%,"虚报"6个次,约占18%,显示"遥相关法"对年度地震预测有一定效果;(5)提出"蜘蛛网"逆反应模型解释中国及邻区对日本大震的响应现象.
We quoted total 67 seismic events of Ms=6.9-9.0in past 110years(during 1900 to March 2011)in five divided regions from north to south in Japan and total 569moderate-strong earthquakes of Ms≥6.0in China and its vicinity to study their correlativity.The corresponding comparison was carried out to compare each Japanese earthquake and earthquakes occurred in China and its vicinity within 4years(predominantly,Ms≥6.0).It is found that there are good correlations between great earthquakes in Japan and moderate-strong earthquakes in China and its vicinity.By studying the correlation characteristics,there are lag intervals,mostly from 6months to 2years but no more than 4years,when earthquakes occurred in China after earthquakes in Japan.The"teleconnection prediction method"to predict the moderate-strong seismic risk regions in China and its vicinity is applied and positive results of 82%correctness(6false predictions in 34 earthquake regions)are obtained.We try to use a"spider web"model of reverse reaction to explain the correlativity of earthquakes which we studied.
We quoted total 67 seismic events of Ms=6.9-9.0in past 110years(during 1900 to March 2011)in five divided regions from north to south in Japan and total 569moderate-strong earthquakes of Ms≥6.0in China and its vicinity to study their correlativity.The corresponding comparison was carried out to compare each Japanese earthquake and earthquakes occurred in China and its vicinity within 4years(predominantly,Ms≥6.0).It is found that there are good correlations between great earthquakes in Japan and moderate-strong earthquakes in China and its vicinity.By studying the correlation characteristics,there are lag intervals,mostly from 6months to 2years but no more than 4years,when earthquakes occurred in China after earthquakes in Japan.The"teleconnection prediction method"to predict the moderate-strong seismic risk regions in China and its vicinity is applied and positive results of 82%correctness(6false predictions in 34 earthquake regions)are obtained.We try to use a"spider web"model of reverse reaction to explain the correlativity of earthquakes which we studied.
引文
Dunbar,P.K.,Lockridge,P.A.,Whiteside,L.S.,1992.Catalogof Significant Earthquakes,2150B.C.-1991A.D.Including Quantitative Casualties and Damage.NOAA National Geophysical Data Center Report SE-49,Boulder,Colorado(in Chinese).
Parsons,T.,Velasco,A.A.,2011.Absence of Remotely Triggered Large Earthquakes beyond the Mainshock Region.Nature Geoscience,(4):312-316.doi:10.1038/ngeo1110
Wu,J.Y.,Yu,S.J.,He,S.Y.,1979.The Correlation of Earthquake Occurrence between Northeastern China andJapan.Acta Geophysica Sinica,22(4):415-438(inChinese with English abstract).
Dunbar,P.K.,Whiteside,L.S.,1996.全球重大灾害性地震目录(2150BC~1991AD).国家地震局震害防御司译.北京:地震出版社.
吴佳翼,郁曙君,何淑韵,1979.华北地震同日本地震的相关性.地球物理学报,22(4):415-438.
Parsons,T.,Velasco,A.A.,2011.Absence of Remotely Triggered Large Earthquakes beyond the Mainshock Region.Nature Geoscience,(4):312-316.doi:10.1038/ngeo1110
Wu,J.Y.,Yu,S.J.,He,S.Y.,1979.The Correlation of Earthquake Occurrence between Northeastern China andJapan.Acta Geophysica Sinica,22(4):415-438(inChinese with English abstract).
Dunbar,P.K.,Whiteside,L.S.,1996.全球重大灾害性地震目录(2150BC~1991AD).国家地震局震害防御司译.北京:地震出版社.
吴佳翼,郁曙君,何淑韵,1979.华北地震同日本地震的相关性.地球物理学报,22(4):415-438.
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