多灾种综合风险评估软层次模型
|
摘要
在复杂的灾害风险系统中,风险并非简单相加,但目前的研究成果基本是单一灾种简单相加得到的综合风险,缺乏可靠性。因此,此研究基于灾害风险系统理论,引入模糊信息粒化方法和模糊转化函数,利用模糊近似推理理论和方法,建立一个多灾种综合风险评估软层次模型。研究表明该模型的优势:1)不仅考虑了灾害风险系统中的确定性,而且还包括了随机不确定性和模糊不确定性;2)利用模糊信息粒化方法不仅减少了数据的不确定性,而且还包括了一些主观信息,使得评估结果更加接近实际,理论与实际紧密结合,更有利于风险管理者和决策者为减少损失规避风险提供依据;3)通过模糊转化函数将不同灾种得到的不同量纲的量转化同一量纲的量,以便于综合分析和模糊近似推理,获得多灾种综合风险。以云南省丽江地区(市)的地震-洪水灾害为例,验证多灾种综合风险评估软层次模型的实用性,并将其结果与世界银行灾害管理中心和哥伦比亚大学灾害和风险研究中心所建议的风险评估模型(HMU-CHRR模型)的结果进行比较分析,讨论了本研究所建模型在多灾种综合风险评估中的特点。
Integrated risk assessment is one of the important parts of integrated risk management,which can help governments to take maeasures on preventing and mitigating the losses of disasters.What's more,multi-hazards integrated risk assessment is currently very important and difficult in the field of disaster reduction at home and abroad,with the systematic theory and methodology not yet obtained.Based on the system theory of disaster risk,this study has introduced the methods of fuzzy information granulation and fuzzy transformation function,and built a soft hierarchical model of integrated risk assessment for multi-hazards,which is characterized by the following aspects.1) Not only the certainty of disaster risk,but also the random uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty are considered.2) The approach of fuzzy information granulation can reduce the uncertainty of data,and it includes some subjective information so as to make the results of assessment more realistic,theory and practice more tightly combined,and thus,it is more conducive to risk managers and decision makers to provide the basis of loss reduction and risk aversion.3) Fuzzy transformation function transforms different types of quantity into the same type of quantity in order to comprehensively analyze and obtain the assessment result of multi-hazards integrated risk.Using earthquake-flood disaster risk as a case study,the demonstration analysis of soft hierarchical model of integrated risk assessment for earthquake-flood disaster illustrates that this soft hierarchical model suggested in this study holds the ability of synthetically assessing multiple disasters.
Integrated risk assessment is one of the important parts of integrated risk management,which can help governments to take maeasures on preventing and mitigating the losses of disasters.What's more,multi-hazards integrated risk assessment is currently very important and difficult in the field of disaster reduction at home and abroad,with the systematic theory and methodology not yet obtained.Based on the system theory of disaster risk,this study has introduced the methods of fuzzy information granulation and fuzzy transformation function,and built a soft hierarchical model of integrated risk assessment for multi-hazards,which is characterized by the following aspects.1) Not only the certainty of disaster risk,but also the random uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty are considered.2) The approach of fuzzy information granulation can reduce the uncertainty of data,and it includes some subjective information so as to make the results of assessment more realistic,theory and practice more tightly combined,and thus,it is more conducive to risk managers and decision makers to provide the basis of loss reduction and risk aversion.3) Fuzzy transformation function transforms different types of quantity into the same type of quantity in order to comprehensively analyze and obtain the assessment result of multi-hazards integrated risk.Using earthquake-flood disaster risk as a case study,the demonstration analysis of soft hierarchical model of integrated risk assessment for earthquake-flood disaster illustrates that this soft hierarchical model suggested in this study holds the ability of synthetically assessing multiple disasters.
引文
[1]Fikse J,Rosenfield D B.Probabilistic methods for risk as-sessment.Risk Analysis,1982,2(1):1-8.
[2]Dilley M,Chen R S,Deichmann U,et al.Natural Disas-ter Hotspots:A Global Risk Analysis.Washington DC:Hazard Management Unit,World Bank,2005:1-132.
[3]Dilley M,Chen R S,Deichmann U,et al.Natural Disas-ter Hotspots:A Global Risk Analysis Synthesis Report.Washington D C:Hazard Management Unit,World Bank,2005:1-29.
[4]Pelling M,Maskrey A,Ruiz P,et al.United Nations De-velopment Programme.A global report reducing disaster risk:A challenge for development.New York:UNDP,2004:1-146.
[5]Pelling M.Visions of Risk:A Review of International In-dicators of Disaster Risk and its Management.ISDR/UN-DP:Kingps College,University of London,2004:1-56.
[6]Cardona O D,Hurtado J E,Chardon A C,et al.Indicators of disaster risk and risk management Summary report for WCDR.Program for Latin America and the Caribbean IADB-UNC/IDEA,2005:1-47.
[7]Cardona O D,Hurtado J E,Chardon A C,et al.Indicators of disaster risk and risk management main technical re-port.Program for Latin America and the Caribbean IADB-UNC/IDEA,World Bank,2005:1-216.
[8]Mosquera-Machado S,Dilley M.A comparison of select-ed global disaster risk assessment results.Natural Haz-ards,2009,48(3):439-456.
[9]Chen Y M,Fan K S,Chen L C.Requirements and Func-tional Analysis of a Multi-Hazard Disaster-Risk Analysis System.Human and Ecological Risk Assessment.2010,16(2):413-428.
[10]Thierry P,Stieltjes L,Kouokam E,et al.Multi-hazard risk mapping and assessment on an active volcano:theGRINP project at Mount Cameroon.Natural Hazards.2008,45(3):429-456.
[11]颜兆林,龚时雨,周经纶.概率风险评价系统.计算机应用研究,2001:40-42..
[12]陈报章,仲崇庆.自然灾害风险损失等级评估的初步研究.灾害学,2010,25(3):1-5.
[13]尹占娥,许世远,殷杰,等.基于小尺度的城市暴雨内涝灾害情景模拟与风险评估.地理学报,2010,65(5):553-562.
[14]殷杰,尹占娥,许世远.上海市灾害综合风险定量评估研究.地理科学,2009,29(3):450-454.
[15]葛全胜,邹铭.中国自然灾害风险综合评估初步研究.北京:科学出版社,2008.
[16]Bedford T,Cooke R.Probabilistic Risk Analysis:Founda-tions and Methods.Beijing:World Publishing Corpora-tion,2003.
[17]Adrian V G,Mock R.Risk Engingeering.Switzerland:Kluwer Academic Publishers,2003.
[18]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价:理论与实践.北京:科学出版社,2005.
[19]Huang CF,Shi Y.Towards Efficient Fuzzy Information Processing:Using the Principle of Information Diffusion.Heidelberg,Germany:Physica-Verlag(Springer),2002.
[20]任鲁川.区域自然灾害风险分析研究进展.地球科学进展,1999,14(3):242-246.
[21]史培军,李宁,叶谦,等.全球环境变化与综合灾害风险防范研究.地球科学进展,2009,24(4):428-434.
[22]史培军.四论灾害系统研究的理论与实践.自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):1-10.
[23]史培军.五论灾害系统研究的理论与实践.自然灾害学报,2009,18(5):1-9.
[24]Xue Y,Huang C F,Wang X Z.A new method and its ap-plication of handling fuzzy uncertainty of data in disaster risk assessment.Global Congress on Intelligent Systems.2009:431-434.
[25]Zadeh L A.Fuzzy sets.Information and Control,1965,(8):338-353.
[26]毛玉平,韩新民.云南地区强震(M≥6)研究.昆明:云南科技出版社,2004.
[27]魏一鸣,金菊良,杨存建,等.洪水灾害风险管理理论.北京:科学出版社,2002.
[2]Dilley M,Chen R S,Deichmann U,et al.Natural Disas-ter Hotspots:A Global Risk Analysis.Washington DC:Hazard Management Unit,World Bank,2005:1-132.
[3]Dilley M,Chen R S,Deichmann U,et al.Natural Disas-ter Hotspots:A Global Risk Analysis Synthesis Report.Washington D C:Hazard Management Unit,World Bank,2005:1-29.
[4]Pelling M,Maskrey A,Ruiz P,et al.United Nations De-velopment Programme.A global report reducing disaster risk:A challenge for development.New York:UNDP,2004:1-146.
[5]Pelling M.Visions of Risk:A Review of International In-dicators of Disaster Risk and its Management.ISDR/UN-DP:Kingps College,University of London,2004:1-56.
[6]Cardona O D,Hurtado J E,Chardon A C,et al.Indicators of disaster risk and risk management Summary report for WCDR.Program for Latin America and the Caribbean IADB-UNC/IDEA,2005:1-47.
[7]Cardona O D,Hurtado J E,Chardon A C,et al.Indicators of disaster risk and risk management main technical re-port.Program for Latin America and the Caribbean IADB-UNC/IDEA,World Bank,2005:1-216.
[8]Mosquera-Machado S,Dilley M.A comparison of select-ed global disaster risk assessment results.Natural Haz-ards,2009,48(3):439-456.
[9]Chen Y M,Fan K S,Chen L C.Requirements and Func-tional Analysis of a Multi-Hazard Disaster-Risk Analysis System.Human and Ecological Risk Assessment.2010,16(2):413-428.
[10]Thierry P,Stieltjes L,Kouokam E,et al.Multi-hazard risk mapping and assessment on an active volcano:theGRINP project at Mount Cameroon.Natural Hazards.2008,45(3):429-456.
[11]颜兆林,龚时雨,周经纶.概率风险评价系统.计算机应用研究,2001:40-42..
[12]陈报章,仲崇庆.自然灾害风险损失等级评估的初步研究.灾害学,2010,25(3):1-5.
[13]尹占娥,许世远,殷杰,等.基于小尺度的城市暴雨内涝灾害情景模拟与风险评估.地理学报,2010,65(5):553-562.
[14]殷杰,尹占娥,许世远.上海市灾害综合风险定量评估研究.地理科学,2009,29(3):450-454.
[15]葛全胜,邹铭.中国自然灾害风险综合评估初步研究.北京:科学出版社,2008.
[16]Bedford T,Cooke R.Probabilistic Risk Analysis:Founda-tions and Methods.Beijing:World Publishing Corpora-tion,2003.
[17]Adrian V G,Mock R.Risk Engingeering.Switzerland:Kluwer Academic Publishers,2003.
[18]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价:理论与实践.北京:科学出版社,2005.
[19]Huang CF,Shi Y.Towards Efficient Fuzzy Information Processing:Using the Principle of Information Diffusion.Heidelberg,Germany:Physica-Verlag(Springer),2002.
[20]任鲁川.区域自然灾害风险分析研究进展.地球科学进展,1999,14(3):242-246.
[21]史培军,李宁,叶谦,等.全球环境变化与综合灾害风险防范研究.地球科学进展,2009,24(4):428-434.
[22]史培军.四论灾害系统研究的理论与实践.自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):1-10.
[23]史培军.五论灾害系统研究的理论与实践.自然灾害学报,2009,18(5):1-9.
[24]Xue Y,Huang C F,Wang X Z.A new method and its ap-plication of handling fuzzy uncertainty of data in disaster risk assessment.Global Congress on Intelligent Systems.2009:431-434.
[25]Zadeh L A.Fuzzy sets.Information and Control,1965,(8):338-353.
[26]毛玉平,韩新民.云南地区强震(M≥6)研究.昆明:云南科技出版社,2004.
[27]魏一鸣,金菊良,杨存建,等.洪水灾害风险管理理论.北京:科学出版社,2002.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心