基于风险分析的城市防灾减灾规划编制——以地震规划为例
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摘要
为减轻城市灾害损失,提出城市防灾减灾规划编制方法,将减灾规划分为准备、风险分析、编制和实施4个步骤。依据风险分析结果,制订防灾减灾规划目标、减灾措施及策略。给出典型的地震灾害风险分析方法。以某市为例,算出其各区域的地震风险。根据风险等级划分标准确定各区域的地震风险可接受水平。基于此结果在GIS平台上的表达,可知市内旧城区的地震风险很高,须立刻采取风险减缓措施。对减灾措施进行优化,结果表明:加快现有设防不足工程的抗震加固,严抓新建工程的抗震设防水准是提高该市抗震减震能力的关键。
In order to reduce urban disaster losses,an urban disaster prevention and mitigation planning method was presented,including planning preparation,risk analysis,plan-making and planning implementation.The prevention and mitigation planning goal,measures and strategies were made according to the risk analysis results.A typical seismic risk analysis method was described.Taking a certain city as an example,regional earthquake risks were indentified.The seismic risk acceptability was determined based on rank division standard of the seismic risk.According to the visual results of it in geographic information system,it turns out that the risk of the old regions is too high that risk alleviating measures should be proposed.The optimized results of mitigation measures show that speeding up the seismic hardening of the existing fortification shortage engineering and stressing the seismic fortification level of the new structure are critical factors in seismic damping.
In order to reduce urban disaster losses,an urban disaster prevention and mitigation planning method was presented,including planning preparation,risk analysis,plan-making and planning implementation.The prevention and mitigation planning goal,measures and strategies were made according to the risk analysis results.A typical seismic risk analysis method was described.Taking a certain city as an example,regional earthquake risks were indentified.The seismic risk acceptability was determined based on rank division standard of the seismic risk.According to the visual results of it in geographic information system,it turns out that the risk of the old regions is too high that risk alleviating measures should be proposed.The optimized results of mitigation measures show that speeding up the seismic hardening of the existing fortification shortage engineering and stressing the seismic fortification level of the new structure are critical factors in seismic damping.
引文
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[2]Michel L M,Baynes F,Scott G,et al.Regional landslides risk to the cairns community[J].Natural Hazards,2003,30(2):233-249.
[3]Kwong A,Wang M,Lee C,et al.A review of landslide problems and mitigation measures in Chongqing and Hong Kong:similarities and differences[J].Engineering Geology,2004,76(2):27-39.
[4]Housner G W.An international decade of natural disaster reduction:1900-2000[J].Natural Hazards,1989,2(1):45-75.
[5]金磊.日本政府防灾行政管理及都市综合减灾规划[J].海淀走读大学学报,2005(1):73-81.JIN Lei.The government precautions against calamities and city disaster alleviation in Japan[J].Haidian University Jour-nal,2005(1):73-81.
[6]Godschalk D R,Brody S l,Burby R.Public participation in natural hazard mitigation policy formation:challenges forcomprehensive planning[J].Journal of Environment Planning and Management,2003,46(5):733-754.
[7]尚春明,翟宝辉.城市综合防灾理论与实践[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2006.SHANG Chun-ming,ZHAI Bao-hui.The theory and practice of the urban comprehensive disaster prevention[M].Beijing:China Architecture and Building Press,2006.
[8]Federal Emergency Management Agency.State and Local Mitigation Planning How to Guide:Getting Started[R].FEMA,2001.
[9]Carreno M L,Cardona O D,Barbat A H.Urban seismic risk evaluation:A holistic approach[J].Natural Hazards,2007,40(1):137-172.
[10]Cardona O D.Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management[R].Inter-American Development Bank,2005.
[11]Anthony V,Fiacc O.Neural networks using a logistic sigmoid function:Liner classifier bounds and global non attainabili-ty[J].Optimization,1993,32(3):351-358.
[12]GB18306—2001,中国地震动参数区划图[S].GB18306—2001,Seismic Dynamic Parameter Zonation Map of China[S].
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