基于ISM的城市脆弱性影响因素研究——以日本城市地震救援恢复为例
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摘要
城市脆弱性受自然环境、经济条件与社会环境等诸多因素影响,且城市脆弱性影响因素之间关系错综复杂。在前人研究基础上,从自然、经济和社会3个维度选取25项影响因素,采用解释结构模型对上述因素进行详细阐述,揭示了影响城市脆弱性的直接因素、间接因素与根本因素的层次脉络:城市结构与功能布局、社会与经济现状直接决定城市灾变敏感性、应对能力与恢复能力高低;在操作层面优化城市的各项功能,实施完善而具体的防灾减灾措施,能间接提高城市应对灾变的防御恢复能力;城市经济总量决定区域范围内脆弱性的总体水平,经济基础是影响城市系统脆弱性的根本因素。最后以日本3.11地震灾害救援恢复为例进行了实证分析。
Urban vulnerability is not only affected by natural environment,economic condition and social environment,but also by the complex relationships among these factors.Based on former researches,this paper discloses 25 influential factors of urban vulnerability from the three aspects and constructs interpretative structural mode of urban vulnerability influential factors.And then it detailedly explains intrinsic structure and hierarchy on the basis of ISM: the layout of the urban structure and function and the economic and social status directly decide urban sensitivity,coping capacity and resilience.Optimization of the urban various functions and implementation of the concrete prevention and mitigation measures can indirectly improve the urban defense capability and resilience.Economic aggregate determines the overall level of urban vulnerability,economy is the fundamental influential factor of urban vulnerability.In light of above analysis,this paper finally studies the case of earthquake of March 11 in Japan.
Urban vulnerability is not only affected by natural environment,economic condition and social environment,but also by the complex relationships among these factors.Based on former researches,this paper discloses 25 influential factors of urban vulnerability from the three aspects and constructs interpretative structural mode of urban vulnerability influential factors.And then it detailedly explains intrinsic structure and hierarchy on the basis of ISM: the layout of the urban structure and function and the economic and social status directly decide urban sensitivity,coping capacity and resilience.Optimization of the urban various functions and implementation of the concrete prevention and mitigation measures can indirectly improve the urban defense capability and resilience.Economic aggregate determines the overall level of urban vulnerability,economy is the fundamental influential factor of urban vulnerability.In light of above analysis,this paper finally studies the case of earthquake of March 11 in Japan.
引文
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[16]石勇.灾害情景下城市脆弱性评估研究——以上海市为例[D].上海:华东师范大学,2010.
[17]Davidson R.An Urban Earthquake Disaster Risk Index[D].California:Stanford University,1997.
[18]周德群.系统工程概论[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[19]樊运晓,罗云,陈庆寿.区域承灾体脆弱性评价指标体系研究[J].现代地质,2001,15(1):113-116.
[20]朱正威,张蓉,周斌.中国区域公共安全评价及其相关因素分析[J].中国行政管理,2006(1):39-42.
[21]史本叶,孙黎.日本地震保险制度及其借鉴[J].商业研究,2011(9):116-119.
[22]陈静,翟国芳,李莎莎.“311”东日本大地震灾后重建思路、措施与进展[J].国际城市规划,2012(1):123-126.
[23]阮梦乔,翟国方.日本地域防灾规划的实践及对我国的启示[J].国际城市规划,2011(4):16-21.
[24]苏桂武,高庆华.自然灾害风险的分析要素[J].地学前缘,2003,10(50):272-279.
[25]李鹤,张平宇.东北地区矿业城市经济系统脆弱性分析[J].煤炭学报,2008,33(1):116-120.
[26]郭强.浅析自然灾害与社会易损性之关系——兼同姜彤、许朋柱先生商榷[J].大自然探索,1997(2):86-90.
[2]商彦蕊.自然灾害综合研究的新进展——脆弱性研究[J].地域研究与开发,2000,19(2):73-77.
[3]Cutter S L.The Science of Vulnerability and the Vulnera-bility of Science[J].Annals of the Association of Ameri-can Geographers,2003,93(l):1-12.
[4]Chambers R.Vulnerability,Coping and Policy[J].IDSBulletin,2006,37(4):33-40.
[5]单菁菁.我国城市化进程中的脆弱性分析[J].工程研究,2011,3(3):240-248.
[6]McEntire D A.Triggering Agents,Vulnerabilities and Dis-aster Reduction:Towards a Holistic Paradigm[J].DisasterPrevention and Management,2001,10(3):189-196.
[7]李宏伟,屈锡华,严敏.社会再适应、参与式重建与反脆弱性发展[J].社会科学研究,2009(3):1-7.
[8]李鹤,张平宇,程叶青.脆弱性的概念及其评价方法[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(2):18-25.
[9]Kenneth Hewitt.Regions of Risk[M].Singapore:Long-man Singapore Publisher Ltd,l997:127.
[10]孙阿丽,石纯,石勇,等.沿海省区洪灾脆弱性空间变化的初步探究[J].环境科学与管理,2009,34(3):36-40.
[11]程林.大城市脆弱性分析及其规划学意义[D].上海:华东师范大学,2010.
[12]马颖.城市交通生命线系统及其脆弱性的内涵和后果表现分析[J].价值工程,2006(12):17-21.
[13]金磊.城市安全风险评价的理论与实际[J].城市问题,2008(2):35-40.
[14]刘铁民.事故灾难成因再认识——脆弱性研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(5):5-10.
[15]Birkmann J.Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards:Towards Disaster Resilient Societies[M].Tokyo:UnitedNations Univ Press,2006:309-368.
[16]石勇.灾害情景下城市脆弱性评估研究——以上海市为例[D].上海:华东师范大学,2010.
[17]Davidson R.An Urban Earthquake Disaster Risk Index[D].California:Stanford University,1997.
[18]周德群.系统工程概论[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[19]樊运晓,罗云,陈庆寿.区域承灾体脆弱性评价指标体系研究[J].现代地质,2001,15(1):113-116.
[20]朱正威,张蓉,周斌.中国区域公共安全评价及其相关因素分析[J].中国行政管理,2006(1):39-42.
[21]史本叶,孙黎.日本地震保险制度及其借鉴[J].商业研究,2011(9):116-119.
[22]陈静,翟国芳,李莎莎.“311”东日本大地震灾后重建思路、措施与进展[J].国际城市规划,2012(1):123-126.
[23]阮梦乔,翟国方.日本地域防灾规划的实践及对我国的启示[J].国际城市规划,2011(4):16-21.
[24]苏桂武,高庆华.自然灾害风险的分析要素[J].地学前缘,2003,10(50):272-279.
[25]李鹤,张平宇.东北地区矿业城市经济系统脆弱性分析[J].煤炭学报,2008,33(1):116-120.
[26]郭强.浅析自然灾害与社会易损性之关系——兼同姜彤、许朋柱先生商榷[J].大自然探索,1997(2):86-90.
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