基于置信区间的地震压埋人员实时伤亡状态预估模型
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摘要
在震后应急救援宏观决策中,地震压埋人员的实时伤亡状态是最重要的定量指标和参考依据。因此,以置信度区间为工具,对影响伤亡状态的参数即初始伤亡指数Co、囤陷环境S和体质综合指数B进行了区间分析,建立了实时伤亡状态模型,并以汶川地震灾区为例,对不同人员的伤亡状态进行了预估,预估值与实际情况的误差为10%左右,表明该模型可供震后应急救援工作参考。
In order to make decision of post-earthquake emergency rescue in time,the real-time casualties states of seismic buried personnel is the most important quantitative index and reference basis.So,by the way of the confidence interval,the parameters of influencing casualty states including origin casualty index、surroundings and body composite mass index were analyzed,then casualty state estimation model of seismic buried–personnel was set up.At last,taking Wenchuan earthquake as an example the model was used to analyze the casualty state of different buried people,whose error is about 10%.The results show that the model can provide a reference to rescue decision making after the earthquake.
In order to make decision of post-earthquake emergency rescue in time,the real-time casualties states of seismic buried personnel is the most important quantitative index and reference basis.So,by the way of the confidence interval,the parameters of influencing casualty states including origin casualty index、surroundings and body composite mass index were analyzed,then casualty state estimation model of seismic buried–personnel was set up.At last,taking Wenchuan earthquake as an example the model was used to analyze the casualty state of different buried people,whose error is about 10%.The results show that the model can provide a reference to rescue decision making after the earthquake.
引文
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[2]傅征祥,李革平.地震生命损失研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1993:80-87.Fu Zhengxiang,Li Geping.Study on the earthquake life loss[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1993:80-87.
[3]赵振东,等.地震人员伤亡指数与人员伤亡状态函数[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(3):90-96.Zhao Zhengdong.et al.The index and state-function of casualties in earthquake[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1998,7(3):90-96.
[4]Yoshimasa K.Causes of fatalities in recent earthquakes in Japan[J].Journal Disaster Science,Num-1981,3(2);15-22.
[5]Cobum A W,Pomonis A,Sakai S.Assessing stragegies to reduce fatalities in earthquakes[C]//Proceedings of International Workshops On Earth-quake Injury Epidemiology For Mitigation and Response.Baltimore,Maryland.1989:107-132.
[6]Olike K A.discussion on the relation between magnitude and the number of the dead by,earthquakes[C]//International Seminar On EarthquakesPrediction and Hazard mitigation Technology.Japan,Science and Technology Agency,1991.
[7]Liu B C.美国新马德里地区地震灾害损失预测研究[M].北京:地震出版社.1993:60-65.Liu B C.The Earthquake loss prediction research of New Madrid in the United States[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1993,60-65.
[8]尹之潜.地震灾害及损失预测方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1996:100-109.Yin Zhiqian.et al.Predicting study for.Chinese earthquake disaster loss[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1996:100-109.
[9]李海华.震灾最大伤亡率的初步分析[J].灾害学,1987,2:42-43.LI Haihua.Preliminary analysis on the highest rate of casualty in earthquake disasters[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1987,2:42-43.
[10]赵振东,郑向远.地震应急救灾与人员伤亡[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(3):80-86.ZHAO Zhendong,ZHENG Xiangyuan.Seismic casualties and relevant emergency rescue[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1999,8(3):80-86.
[11]赵振东,郑向远,钟江荣.地震人员伤亡的动态评估[[J].地震工程与工程振动,999,19(4):149-156.ZHAO Zhendung,ZHENG Xiangyuan,ZHONG Jiangrong.Dynamic method of assessing seismic casualties[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engi-neering.1999,19(4):149-156.
[12]周素琴,郭子雄.地震人员伤亡的动态评估[J].华侨大学学报(自然科学版),2004,25(1):54-57.Zhou Suqin,Guo Zixiong.Dynamic assessment of seismic casualties[J].Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science),2004,25(1):54-57.
[13]王福保.概率论与数理统计[M].上海:同济大学出版社,1994,228-229.Wang Fubao.Probability theory and mathematical statistics[M].Shanghai:Tongji University Press,1994:228-229.
[14]蔡睿,江崇民,郑迎东张一民.国民体质综合指数数学模型的建立[J].体育科学,2005,25(3):30-32Cai Rui,Jiang Chongmin,Zheng Yingdong,zhang Yimin.et al.Establishment of mathematical model of national fitness composite index[J].Chi-na Sport Science,2005,25(3):30-32.
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