灾害链风险评估的概念模型——以汶川5·12特大地震为例
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摘要
大量事实表明,每发生一种重大灾害总会诱发一系列次生灾害,形成破坏力远超单一灾种的灾害链现象。要有效防范灾害链风险,理清其形成过程、构建其评估模型是前提。在梳理国内外链式风险评估概念模型的基础上,结合"5.12"汶川特大地震灾害链案例,初步提出灾害链风险评估的概念模型。①孕灾环境敏感性是致灾因子链发的重要影响因素,决定灾害链风险的链发概率,确定影响孕灾环境敏感性的因素及定量关系是评估关键;②灾害链中承灾体重复受灾导致脆弱性增大,脆弱性变化评估的引入将提高灾害链风险评估结果的精度。本文旨在为完善区域灾害系统理论,进一步推动灾害链风险防范提供依据。
A vast number of cases have demonstrated that a major disaster can trigger a series of secondary disasters,forming a disaster chain with much more destructive power than a single-type disaster.Understanding the process of disaster chain formation and establishing a conceptual model for risk assessment are the premise for governance of the disaster chain risk.In this paper,we first reviewed the chain risk assessment models from the studies at home and abroad,e.g.,the accident chain,supply chain and so on,and then,taking Wenchuan Earthquake as a case study,we proposed a new conceptual model of disaster chain risk assessment.The two major conclusions are:(1) sensitivity of the environment susceptible to disasters is an important impact factor,which determines the probability of disaster chain.Therefore,the key aspect of risk assessment is to identify the factors affecting the sensitivity of the environment and characterize their quantitative relationships.(2) Vulnerability of a disaster-affected area in a disaster chain increases after incurring repeated hazards;evaluation of change of the vulnerability of the area will improve the precision of disaster chain risk assessment.This study aims to improve the theory on disaster system research and provide a basis for further improvement of disaster chain risk governance.
A vast number of cases have demonstrated that a major disaster can trigger a series of secondary disasters,forming a disaster chain with much more destructive power than a single-type disaster.Understanding the process of disaster chain formation and establishing a conceptual model for risk assessment are the premise for governance of the disaster chain risk.In this paper,we first reviewed the chain risk assessment models from the studies at home and abroad,e.g.,the accident chain,supply chain and so on,and then,taking Wenchuan Earthquake as a case study,we proposed a new conceptual model of disaster chain risk assessment.The two major conclusions are:(1) sensitivity of the environment susceptible to disasters is an important impact factor,which determines the probability of disaster chain.Therefore,the key aspect of risk assessment is to identify the factors affecting the sensitivity of the environment and characterize their quantitative relationships.(2) Vulnerability of a disaster-affected area in a disaster chain increases after incurring repeated hazards;evaluation of change of the vulnerability of the area will improve the precision of disaster chain risk assessment.This study aims to improve the theory on disaster system research and provide a basis for further improvement of disaster chain risk governance.
引文
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Jiang X G,Chen F L,Wang F.2007.Risk analysis and assessment in supply chain network.Journal of Southeast University:Natural Science Edition,36(S2):355-360.[江孝感,陈丰琳,王凤.2007.基于供应链网络的风险分析与评估方法.东南大学学报:自然科学版,36(增2):355-360.]
Jukka H,Iris K,Urho P,et al.2004.Risk management processes in supplier networks.International Journal of Production Economics,90(1):47-58.
Li M,Tang H M,Ye S Q.2008.Research on chain rule of typical geological disaster.Journal of Catastrophology,23(1):1-5.[李明,唐红梅,叶四桥.2008.典型地质灾害链式机理研究.灾害学,23(1):1-5.]
Liu W F,Xiao S X,Sui Y C,et al.2006.Analysis of natural di-saster chain and chain-cutting disaster mitigation mode.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,25(1):2675-2681.[刘文方,肖盛燮,隋严春,等.2006.自然灾害链及其断链减灾模式分析.岩石力学与工程学报,25(1):2675-2681.]
National Committee for Disaster Reduction&Earthquake Disaster Relief Expert Group of Ministry of Science and Technology.2008.Comprehensive analysis and assessment of Wenchuan earthquake disaster.Beijing,China:Science Press.[国家减灾委员会,科技部抗震救灾专家组.2008.汶川地震灾害综合分析与评估.北京:科学出版社.]
Ni J R,Li X X,Xue A,et al.2004.Sediment disaster chain and its application to interpretation of disaster process characteristics related to sediment transport.Journal of Natural Disasters,13(5):1-9.[倪晋仁,李秀霞,薛安,等.2004.泥沙灾害链及其在灾害过程规律研究中的应用.自然灾害学报,13(5):1-9.]
Shi P J.2002.Theory on disaster science and disaster dynam-ics.Journal of Natural Disasters,11(3):1-9.[史培军.2002.三论灾害研究的理论与实践.自然灾害学报,11(3):1-9.]
Shi P J.2009.Theory on disaster science and disaster dynamics.Journal of Natural Disasters,18(5):1-9.[史培军.2009.五论灾害系统研究的理论与实践.自然灾害学报,18(5):1-9.]
Shi P J,Du J,Ji M X,et al.2006.Urban risk assessment research of major natural disasters in China.Advances in Earth Science,21(2):170-177.
Shi P J.2011.Atlas of natural disaster risk in China.Beijing,China:Science Press.[史培军.2011.中国自然灾害风险地图集.北京:科学出版社.]
State Planning Group of Post-Wenchuan Earthquake Restoration and Reconstruction.The state overall planning for Post-Wenchuan Earthquake restoration and reconstruction[DB/OL].2008[2012-08-10].www.gov.cn/wcdzzhhfcjghz-qyjg.pdf[国家汶川地震灾后重建规划组.国家汶川地震灾后恢复重建总体规划[DB/OL].2008[2012-08-10].www.gov.cn/wcdzzhhfcjghzqyjg.pdf]
Wang A S,Luo Y,Tu G Y,et al.2010.Online transmission vulnerability assessment method based on the fault chain risk index.Proceedings of CSEE,30(25):44-50.[王安斯,罗毅,涂光瑜,等.2010.基于事故链风险指标的输电脆弱度在线评估方法.中国机电工程学报,30(25):44-50.]
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Xiao S X.2006.Theory and Applications of Chain-styled Disaster.Beijing,China:Science Press.[肖盛燮.2006.灾变链式理论及应用.北京:科学出版社.]
Yu S Z,Zhang L X,Zhao Z D,et al.2010.Probability analysis of earthquake disaster chain and chain-cutting disaster mitigation method.China Civil Engineering Journal,43(Suppl.):479-483.[余世舟,张令心,赵振东,等.2010.地震灾害链概率分析及断链减灾方法.土木工程学报,43(增刊):479-483.]
Zhao X,Li C C,Su N.2009.Extraction of landslide/debris flow information based on multi-source remote sensing data.Journal of Natural Disasters,18(6):29-32.[赵祥,李长春,苏娜.2009.滑坡泥石流的多源遥感信息提取方法.自然灾害学报,18(6):29-32.]
Zhou Y J,Qiu G H,Wang Z R.2006.A review on supply chain risk management.Systems Engineering,24(3):1-7.[周艳菊,邱莞华,王宗润.2006.供应链风险管理研究进展的综述与分析.系统工程,24(3):1-7.]
Cao S G,Wang Y Z,Wang C M,et al.2007.Study of disasters prevention management and pre-warning information sys tem based on multi-disaster chain.Journal of Safety Sci ence and Technology,3(5):55-59.[曹树刚,王延钊,王明超,等.2007.基于链式多灾种防灾管理体制及预警机制探讨.中国安全生产科学技术,3(5):55-59.]
Chen X L,Deng J L,Ran H L.2011.Analysis of landslides triggered by Wenchuan earthquake.Seismology and Geology,33(1):191-202.[陈晓利,邓俭良,冉洪流.2011.汶川地震滑坡崩塌的空间分布特征.地震地质,33(1):191-202.]
Cui P,He S M,Yao L K,et al.2011.Wenchuan earthquake disaster formation mechanism and risk control.Beijing,China:Science Press.[崔鹏,何思明,姚令侃,等.2011.汶川地震山地灾害形成机理与风险控制.北京:科学出版社.]
Cui Y,Kong J M,Wu W P.2012.Cause characteristics and prevention/control strategies of the secondary mountain disaster chain of the Wenchuan earthquake.Journal of Natural Disasters,21(1):109-116.[崔云,孔纪名,吴文平.2012.汶川地震次生山地灾害链成灾特点与防治对策.自然灾害学报,21(1):109-116.]
Editorial Board of"Atlas of Wenchuan Earthquake Disaster".2008.Atlas of Wenchuan earthquake disaster.Chengdu,China:Chengdu Maps Press.《[汶川地震灾害地图集》编纂委员会.2008.汶川地震灾害地图集.成都:成都地图出版社.]
Fan H J,Xiao S X,Hao Y G,et al.2006.Study on structural relation of chain effects on natural disaster and its complexity.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,25(S1):2603-2611.[范海军,肖盛燮,郝艳广,等.2006.自然灾害链式效应结构关系及其复杂型规律研究.岩石力学与工程学报,25(增1):2603-2611.]
Gu C L.2011.Geographical report of 311 Earthquake in Japan.Acta Geographic Sinica,66(6):853-861.[顾朝林.2011.日本311特大地震地理学报告.地理学报,66(6):853-861.]
Guo Z J,Qin B Y.1987.Brief discussion on disaster physics.Journal of Catastrophology,2(2):25-33.[郭增建,秦保燕.1987.灾害物理学简论.灾害学,2(2):25-33.]
Huang C F.2005.Risk assessment of natural disaster:Theory and practices.Beijing,China:Science Press.[黄崇福.2005.自然灾害风险评价理论与实践.北京:科学出版社.]
Huang R Q,Tang C,Li Y,et al.2009.Research on Wenchuan earthquake and geological disaster.Beijing,China:Science Press.[黄润秋,唐川,李勇,等.2009.汶川地震地质灾害研究.北京:科学出版社.]
Jiang X G,Chen F L,Wang F.2007.Risk analysis and assessment in supply chain network.Journal of Southeast University:Natural Science Edition,36(S2):355-360.[江孝感,陈丰琳,王凤.2007.基于供应链网络的风险分析与评估方法.东南大学学报:自然科学版,36(增2):355-360.]
Jukka H,Iris K,Urho P,et al.2004.Risk management processes in supplier networks.International Journal of Production Economics,90(1):47-58.
Li M,Tang H M,Ye S Q.2008.Research on chain rule of typical geological disaster.Journal of Catastrophology,23(1):1-5.[李明,唐红梅,叶四桥.2008.典型地质灾害链式机理研究.灾害学,23(1):1-5.]
Liu W F,Xiao S X,Sui Y C,et al.2006.Analysis of natural di-saster chain and chain-cutting disaster mitigation mode.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,25(1):2675-2681.[刘文方,肖盛燮,隋严春,等.2006.自然灾害链及其断链减灾模式分析.岩石力学与工程学报,25(1):2675-2681.]
National Committee for Disaster Reduction&Earthquake Disaster Relief Expert Group of Ministry of Science and Technology.2008.Comprehensive analysis and assessment of Wenchuan earthquake disaster.Beijing,China:Science Press.[国家减灾委员会,科技部抗震救灾专家组.2008.汶川地震灾害综合分析与评估.北京:科学出版社.]
Ni J R,Li X X,Xue A,et al.2004.Sediment disaster chain and its application to interpretation of disaster process characteristics related to sediment transport.Journal of Natural Disasters,13(5):1-9.[倪晋仁,李秀霞,薛安,等.2004.泥沙灾害链及其在灾害过程规律研究中的应用.自然灾害学报,13(5):1-9.]
Shi P J.2002.Theory on disaster science and disaster dynam-ics.Journal of Natural Disasters,11(3):1-9.[史培军.2002.三论灾害研究的理论与实践.自然灾害学报,11(3):1-9.]
Shi P J.2009.Theory on disaster science and disaster dynamics.Journal of Natural Disasters,18(5):1-9.[史培军.2009.五论灾害系统研究的理论与实践.自然灾害学报,18(5):1-9.]
Shi P J,Du J,Ji M X,et al.2006.Urban risk assessment research of major natural disasters in China.Advances in Earth Science,21(2):170-177.
Shi P J.2011.Atlas of natural disaster risk in China.Beijing,China:Science Press.[史培军.2011.中国自然灾害风险地图集.北京:科学出版社.]
State Planning Group of Post-Wenchuan Earthquake Restoration and Reconstruction.The state overall planning for Post-Wenchuan Earthquake restoration and reconstruction[DB/OL].2008[2012-08-10].www.gov.cn/wcdzzhhfcjghz-qyjg.pdf[国家汶川地震灾后重建规划组.国家汶川地震灾后恢复重建总体规划[DB/OL].2008[2012-08-10].www.gov.cn/wcdzzhhfcjghzqyjg.pdf]
Wang A S,Luo Y,Tu G Y,et al.2010.Online transmission vulnerability assessment method based on the fault chain risk index.Proceedings of CSEE,30(25):44-50.[王安斯,罗毅,涂光瑜,等.2010.基于事故链风险指标的输电脆弱度在线评估方法.中国机电工程学报,30(25):44-50.]
Wang X.Research on risk assessment of regional disaster chain[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2011.[王翔.区域灾害链风险评估研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2011.]
Xiao S X.2006.Theory and Applications of Chain-styled Disaster.Beijing,China:Science Press.[肖盛燮.2006.灾变链式理论及应用.北京:科学出版社.]
Yu S Z,Zhang L X,Zhao Z D,et al.2010.Probability analysis of earthquake disaster chain and chain-cutting disaster mitigation method.China Civil Engineering Journal,43(Suppl.):479-483.[余世舟,张令心,赵振东,等.2010.地震灾害链概率分析及断链减灾方法.土木工程学报,43(增刊):479-483.]
Zhao X,Li C C,Su N.2009.Extraction of landslide/debris flow information based on multi-source remote sensing data.Journal of Natural Disasters,18(6):29-32.[赵祥,李长春,苏娜.2009.滑坡泥石流的多源遥感信息提取方法.自然灾害学报,18(6):29-32.]
Zhou Y J,Qiu G H,Wang Z R.2006.A review on supply chain risk management.Systems Engineering,24(3):1-7.[周艳菊,邱莞华,王宗润.2006.供应链风险管理研究进展的综述与分析.系统工程,24(3):1-7.]
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