基于GIS的航天器发射应急决策系统
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摘要
针对航天发射的特点,将智能决策支持技术和GIS技术相结合,利用GIS可视化显示和空间分析功能,通过研究的故障状态下液体推进剂火箭爆炸模式、弹片散布模型和毒气泄漏扩散模型,实时准确地提供残片散布范围和毒气散逸浓度危害范围,直观地显示了现场态势。在构建的应急联动数据库、预案库和立体安全应急处理模型的基础上,实现了火箭飞行安全的仿真模拟和现场态势分析,利用CBR推理在预案库中查找与各决策条件最相似的预案,为应急指挥决策提供支持。
Aimed at the space launching,the paper combined the intelligent decision-making and the GIS technology.Based on the exploring model,fragment and the toxic gas diffusing model of liquid rocket,the diffusing ranges of the fragments and the toxic gas were provided through the visual displaying and spatial analyzing of GIS.And with the emergency database,preparedness and safety emergency model,the paper realized the simulation and analysis of the rocket flying safety.Finally,the paper utilized the CBR inference to search the most similar preparedness to support the emergency commanding.
Aimed at the space launching,the paper combined the intelligent decision-making and the GIS technology.Based on the exploring model,fragment and the toxic gas diffusing model of liquid rocket,the diffusing ranges of the fragments and the toxic gas were provided through the visual displaying and spatial analyzing of GIS.And with the emergency database,preparedness and safety emergency model,the paper realized the simulation and analysis of the rocket flying safety.Finally,the paper utilized the CBR inference to search the most similar preparedness to support the emergency commanding.
引文
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[2]廖光煊,翁韬,朱霁平,刘铁民.城市重大事故应急辅助决策支持系统研究[J].2005,17(17):7-13.[LIAO Guang-xuan,WONG Tao,ZHU Qi-ping,LIU Tie-min.The research on the emer-gent decision making and support system in the city’s vital event[J].2005,17(17):7-13.]
[3]高洪深.决策支持系统(DSS):理论.方法.案例(2版)[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2000:23-28.[GAO Hong-shen.DecisionMaking and Decision Support System(DSS):Theory Methods Cases[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2000:23-28.]
[4]陈晓秋,潘自强,张永兴,陈家宜.核事故早期应急响应的预报模式及其设计方案[J].辐射防护,2005,25(1):1-10.[CHEN Xiao-qiu,PAN Zi-qiang,ZHANG Yong-xing,CHEN Jia-yi.The designing scheme and early forecasting mode in the nuclear acci-dent[J].Radiation Protection,2005,25(1):1-10.]
[5]Tzemos S,Burnett R A.Use of GIS in the federal emergency manage-ment information system(FEMIS)[J].NTIS No:DE95014613/HDM.205-209.
[6]http://www.fema.gov(美国联邦应急管理署网站).
[7]Raskob W,Ehrhardt J.The RODOS system:decision support for nu-clear off-site emergency management in europe.http://etmikan.nifs.ac.jp/IRPA10/PDF/FULL%20PAPER%20PDF/00523-11-292SR13H00125.PDF.
[8]Kok Y S,Eleveld H,Schnad H,Gering3 F,et al.Comparative study ofdutch and german emergency-management models for near border nuclearaccidents[J].Radiation Protection Dosimetry,2005,113(4):381-391.
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