基于区间数层次分析法的机场应急能力评价模型
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摘要
为了发现机场应急管理中存在的问题,提高机场应急管理水平,对机场应急管理问题进行分析,建立机场应急能力评价幂指数模型。通过研究机场应急管理过程,对应急管理全周期进行任务分解,并运用人-机-环境系统理论,建立机场应急能力递阶结构模型。针对专家群给出的判断矩阵元素实际落在一个区间里,使用一种改进的区间数层次分析法对各个能力的权重进行计算。对南方某机场进行实例分析,结果表明:模型能够对机场应急救援能力作出综合评价,同时还可以找出机场应急管理中的薄弱环节。
To find out the problems existing in the airport emergency management and enhance its level,power index model of emergency capacity assessment was established by analyzing the problem of emergency management in civil aviation airports.Based on the study of emergency management course,the tasks of emergency management during the whole period were broken down.According to theory of man-machine-environment system,the capability structure which emergency management needs was discussed,and an airport hierarchical structure model for emergency capacity assessment was established.Considering that the elements of judgment matrix given by experts were actually in an interval,the weights of capability was calculated by using an improved Interval Analytic Hierarchy Process.Case analysis of an airport in South shows that the comprehensive assessment for airport emergency capacity can be fulfilled by using the model and the weak link of airport emergency management can be found out by analyzing the capabilities with few marks.
To find out the problems existing in the airport emergency management and enhance its level,power index model of emergency capacity assessment was established by analyzing the problem of emergency management in civil aviation airports.Based on the study of emergency management course,the tasks of emergency management during the whole period were broken down.According to theory of man-machine-environment system,the capability structure which emergency management needs was discussed,and an airport hierarchical structure model for emergency capacity assessment was established.Considering that the elements of judgment matrix given by experts were actually in an interval,the weights of capability was calculated by using an improved Interval Analytic Hierarchy Process.Case analysis of an airport in South shows that the comprehensive assessment for airport emergency capacity can be fulfilled by using the model and the weak link of airport emergency management can be found out by analyzing the capabilities with few marks.
引文
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[15]田依林.城市突发公共事件综合应急能力评价研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2008:119-120.TIAN Yi-lin.Research on Assessment of City Comprehensive Emergency Response Capability of Sudden PublicEvents[D].Wuhan:Wuhan University of Technology,2008:119-120.
[2]GI Mould.Assessing systems for offshore emergency evacuation[J].Journal of the Operational Research Society,2001,52(4):401-408.
[3]Jennifer Wilson,Arthur Oyola Yemaiel.The evolution of emergency management and the advancement towards a profes-sion in the United States and Florida[J].Safety Science,2001,39(1-2).117-131.
[4]刘新建,陈晓军.国内外应急管理能力评价的理论与实践综述[J].燕山大学学报,2009,33(3):271-275.LIU Xin-jian,CHEN Xiao-jun.A comprehensive reviewof the theories and practices of emergency management capabilityassessment[J].Journal of Yanshan University,2009,33(3):271-275.
[5]张永领.基于Delphi法和最小判别的应急能力逐级评价模式研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(2):165-170.ZHANG Yong-ling.A stepwise assessment model for emergency capability based on Delphi method and minimumdistinction[J].China Safety Science Journal,2010,20(2):165-170.
[6]王绍玉.城市灾害应急管理能力建设[J].城市与减灾,2003(3):4-6.WANG Shao-yu.Constructions of emergency management capability to urban disasters[J].Cities and Disaster Reduction,2003(3):4-6.
[7]邓云峰,郑双忠,刘铁民.突发灾害应急能力评估及应急特点[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2005,1(5):56-58.DENG Yun-feng,ZHENG Shuang-zhong,LIU Tie-min.Review of disaster capalrility assessment and emergencysystem[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2005,1(5):56-58.
[8]陈文涛,佟瑞鹏,孙跃龙.基于ANP方法的社区事故应急能力评估指标权重的确定[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(6):166-171.CHEN Wen-tao,TONG Rui-peng,SUN Yue-long.Determination of index weight in evaluation of community emergencyresponse capability based on ANP[J].China Safety Science Journal,2010,20(6):166-171.
[9]冯志泽,陈惠云.城市房屋抗震能力综合评定[J].华北地震科学,2004,22(4):34-37.FENG Zhi-ze,CHEN Hui-yun.Estimation for quakeproof capability of buildings in city[J].North China Earthquake Sci-ences,2004,22(4):34-37.
[10]郭玉明,陈东林,李志刚.航空装备战时维修保障能力评价模型[J].火力与指挥控制,2010,35(10):166-170.GUO Yu-ming,CHENDong-lin,LI Zhi-gang.Model study on maintenance support ability evaluation of aircraft equipmentin wartime[J].Fire Control&Command Control,2010,35(10):166-170.
[11]王宁,王延章.应急管理体系及其业务流程研究[J].公共管理学报,2007,4(2):94-99.WANG Ning,WANG Yan-zhang.Research on the emergency management system and business flow[J].Journal of Pub-lic Management,2007,4(2):94-99.
[12]陈安,陈宁,倪慧荟.现代应急管理理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2009:75-80.CHEN An,CHEN Ning,NI Hui-hui.Modern Emergency Management Theory and Method[M].Beijing:Science Press,2009:75-80.
[13]翟晓燕,张新政.群决策中区间数判断矩阵的集结及权重的计算[J].系统工程,2005,23(9):103-107.ZHAI Xiao-yan,ZHANG Xin-zheng.The methods on aggregation of interval number judgment matrixes and calculation ofits priorities in the group decision-making[J].Systems Engineering,2005,23(9):103-107.
[14]朱建军.层次分析法的若干问题研究及应用[D].沈阳:东北大学,2000:45-48.ZHU Jian-jun.Research on Some Problems of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Its Application[D].Shenyang:North-easthern University,2000:45-48.
[15]田依林.城市突发公共事件综合应急能力评价研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2008:119-120.TIAN Yi-lin.Research on Assessment of City Comprehensive Emergency Response Capability of Sudden PublicEvents[D].Wuhan:Wuhan University of Technology,2008:119-120.
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