车身颜色与事故风险度相关性模型研究

英文篇名：Correlation Model of Vehicle Color and Risk Level of Accident
中文刊名：中国公共安全(学术版)
英文刊名：China Public Security(Academy Edition)
作者：许卉莹 ; 裘晨璐
英文作者：XU Huiying ; QIU Chenlu ; Traffic Management Research Institute of the Ministry of Public Security
中文关键词：分层泊松对数线性模型 ; 事故风险度 ; 车身颜色事故
英文关键词：stratified log-linear Poisson regression model ; accident occurrence risk ; vehicle color ; accident
出版日期：2015-06-15
机构：公安部交通管理科学研究所;
年：2015
期：02
出版单位：中国公共安全(学术版)

摘要

本文在对交通事故相关数据分析基础上,从车辆颜色与交通事故各相关因素的关联性入手,研究事故发生概率在不同因素条件下的相关性和影响程度。通过将事故数据划分为车身颜色事故倾向组和对照组,建立车身颜色与交通事故发生风险影响分析的二维列联表,进而构建车辆颜色与事故发生概率的分层泊松对数线性模型,揭示交通事故在不同天气、能见度、车辆类型、道路线形和行政区划条件下的车辆颜色的相关影响,建立量化的车辆颜色相关事故分析评估指标,从而为交通安全措施及政策的制定提供数据支撑。
In this paper, based on analysis on traffic accident data, especially the correlation of vehicle color and other related effect factors for traffic accidents, the correlation and influence degree of vehicle color and accident occurrence under different conditions were discussed. By classifying accident data into color prone group and control group, a two dimensional contingency table of vehicle color and accident occurrence was established and then a stratified log-linear Poisson regression model was constructed indicating the effects of vehicle colors for accident occurrence in different weather, visibility, vehicle type, road alignment and administrative conditions. Quantization evaluation index for traffic accident occurrence risk of different color is established, which can provide technical support for making traffic safety measures and policies.

引文

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