连续小波变换在新疆地震活动周期分析中的应用
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摘要
利用连续小波变换分析和研究了 1 970年 1月— 2 0 0 1年 1 2月新疆地区 30年来的地震活动情况。结果表明 ,新疆地震活动存在比较稳定的 1 0年左右活动周期 ,并存在 5年和 1 7年左右的不稳定的准活动周期 ,也就是说新疆地区地震活动既存在比较稳定的优势周期 ,也存在一定的时变性。根据 MS≥ 4.7地震时间序列的连续小波变换结果可推测 ,2 0 0 2— 2 0 0 5年新疆地区地震活动相对偏弱 ,中、强地震的发生次数偏少 ,有可能发生 5级或 6级地震 ,而到 2 0 0 6— 2 0 0 7年新疆有可能再次发生 7级左右的大地震。
The continuous wavelet transform was used to analyze and study the period of seismicity in the Xinjiang region during the time from January 1970 to December 2001. The result shows that there not only exist comparatively stable active periods (about ten years) but also some variable active periods (5 years and 17 years). The analysis based on continuous wavelet transform indicates the period change of seismic activity in Xinjiang. According to the analysis result of the M-S≥4.7 earthquake time series it is forecasted that the seismic activity in Xinjiang will be weak during 2002-2005 and the number of M-S≥4.7 earthquakes will be reduced; moreover, it is possible that the earthquakes with the magnitude about 7 will take place in 2006-2007 in Xinjiang.
The continuous wavelet transform was used to analyze and study the period of seismicity in the Xinjiang region during the time from January 1970 to December 2001. The result shows that there not only exist comparatively stable active periods (about ten years) but also some variable active periods (5 years and 17 years). The analysis based on continuous wavelet transform indicates the period change of seismic activity in Xinjiang. According to the analysis result of the M-S≥4.7 earthquake time series it is forecasted that the seismic activity in Xinjiang will be weak during 2002-2005 and the number of M-S≥4.7 earthquakes will be reduced; moreover, it is possible that the earthquakes with the magnitude about 7 will take place in 2006-2007 in Xinjiang.
引文
1苏乃秦,杨马陵,郑大伟.非线性时间序列分析在地震数据处理及分析预报中的应用.国家地震局地震科学联合基金项目结题报告.
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[1]郑治真,胡劲波.瞬时频谱分析在地震趋势预测中的应用[J].地震学报,1996,15(1):68-75.
[2]杜兴信.基于小波变换的动态地震活动周期分析[J].地震,1997,17(3):257-264.
[3]胡昌华,张军波,夏军,等.基于Matlab的系统分析与设计——小波分析[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,1999.
[4]董安祥.中国强地震的小波分析[J].甘肃科学学报,1999,11(3):17-21.
[5]苏乃秦,杨马陵.新疆区域地震活动的韵律特征及非线性预测[J].内陆地震,1993,7(4):356-352
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