基于BP神经网络的交通影响预测模型
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摘要
对建设项目进行交通影响分析越来越受到交通工程专家和规划管理部门的重视,如何科学预测项目建成后对周围路网的交通影响一直是交通影响分析理论和实践中的重要问题.根据人工神经网络的基本原理,利用三层BP网络,建立了输入变量是建设项目产生的交通量、路网中各路段的背景饱和度、离开建设项目的距离,输出变量是项目建成后路段饱和度的交通影响预测模型,并以哈尔滨国际会展体育中心为例,详细介绍模型的建立过程.模型预测值与实际值之间的相对误差<5%,拟合度达到0.99.
The traffic impact analysis of projects is more and more emphasized by the transportation engineering experts, the planning and management departments. It is the important problem in the theory research and practice on current traffic impact analysis that how to predict the impact on the surrounding road network. According to the basic theory of artificial neural network and using the three-layer BP network, the traffic impact predict model are established in this paper. The input variables are the traffic production of the project, the background drgree of saturation of sections of highway and the distance from the project, and the output variable is the traffic impact predict model of the road degree of saturation after the project is established. The process of establishing model is illustrated by the gymnasium center of Harbin international conference exhibition, the error analyses outcome of the model and the traffic impact of the center on surrounding road network are also analyzed in the paper.
The traffic impact analysis of projects is more and more emphasized by the transportation engineering experts, the planning and management departments. It is the important problem in the theory research and practice on current traffic impact analysis that how to predict the impact on the surrounding road network. According to the basic theory of artificial neural network and using the three-layer BP network, the traffic impact predict model are established in this paper. The input variables are the traffic production of the project, the background drgree of saturation of sections of highway and the distance from the project, and the output variable is the traffic impact predict model of the road degree of saturation after the project is established. The process of establishing model is illustrated by the gymnasium center of Harbin international conference exhibition, the error analyses outcome of the model and the traffic impact of the center on surrounding road network are also analyzed in the paper.
引文
[1]PEIYL,MAJ.Screeningandrconstructionofrealtimetrafficdata[J].JournalofHarbinInstituteofTechnology,2003,10(1):1-7.
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[3]王 丽,刘小明,任福田.大城市交通影响分析体系研究[A].中国城市交通规划学术委员会论文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1999 271-279.
[4]SOUMYASDey,FRICKERJD.Aproposedthree-stepprocessfortrafficimpactanalysisinIndiana[J].ITEJournal,1993,63(7):19-24.
[5]王晓宁.交通影响范围确定及交通影响费取值的研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2002.
[6]裴玉龙,张宇.城市道路网节点短时段交通量预测模型研究[J].土木工程学报,2003(36)1:11-15.
[7]王 丽.确定交通影响范围的烟羽模型法[J].中国公路学报,2001,14(5):100-102.
[8]黄肇义.城市土地开发的交通影响分析研究[D].上海:上海理工大学,1992.
[9]哈尔滨市交通综合规划研究所.哈尔滨国际会展体育中心交通组织规划说明[R].哈尔滨:哈尔滨市交通综合规划研究,2002.
[10]黄肇义,黄翔,晏克非.交通影响分析中确定交通影响范围方法的研究[A].中国城市交通规划学术委员论文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1999 212-218.
[11]裴玉龙,郎益顺.基于转换OD的路径选择模型研究[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2003,35(4):483-487
[2]裴玉龙,王晓宁.哈尔滨市大型建设项目交通影响分析研究[J].昆明理工大学学报,2002,27(增刊):159-162.
[3]王 丽,刘小明,任福田.大城市交通影响分析体系研究[A].中国城市交通规划学术委员会论文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1999 271-279.
[4]SOUMYASDey,FRICKERJD.Aproposedthree-stepprocessfortrafficimpactanalysisinIndiana[J].ITEJournal,1993,63(7):19-24.
[5]王晓宁.交通影响范围确定及交通影响费取值的研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2002.
[6]裴玉龙,张宇.城市道路网节点短时段交通量预测模型研究[J].土木工程学报,2003(36)1:11-15.
[7]王 丽.确定交通影响范围的烟羽模型法[J].中国公路学报,2001,14(5):100-102.
[8]黄肇义.城市土地开发的交通影响分析研究[D].上海:上海理工大学,1992.
[9]哈尔滨市交通综合规划研究所.哈尔滨国际会展体育中心交通组织规划说明[R].哈尔滨:哈尔滨市交通综合规划研究,2002.
[10]黄肇义,黄翔,晏克非.交通影响分析中确定交通影响范围方法的研究[A].中国城市交通规划学术委员论文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1999 212-218.
[11]裴玉龙,郎益顺.基于转换OD的路径选择模型研究[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2003,35(4):483-487
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