公路沿线遭遇滚石的风险分析——方法研究
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摘要
随着中国经济建设的迅速发展,山区内大量公路将面临着越来越多的滚石问题。显然,公路沿线遭遇滚石的风险分析对滚石灾害的分区与防治资金的优化配置是十分重要的。在工程地质力学综合集成方法论(EGMS)的指导下,由现场调查、专家经验、理论分析等结合得到了困难条件下滚石发生频率的估计方法。假定一个滚石区范围内的人类活动和潜在滚石在时间和空间上为均匀分布,利用贝努力公式给出了静止车辆、移动车辆、行人等情况下遭遇滚石的概率计算方法。由遭遇滚石的概率及承灾体的易损性分析,可进一步得到公路上车辆和行人经过不同滚石区时受滚石冲击而致命的风险水平。
As the rapid development of economy in China,a great number of highways in mountainous areas will confront with more and more rockfall problems.Obviously,risk analysis of encountering rockfalls along these traffic routes is of extreme importance for zoning of rockfall hazards and optimum scheme of mitigation costs.Based on the EGMS methodology,a comprehensive way is developed to estimate frequency of rockfalls occurred in difficult mountainous conditions by combining all the information from site investigation,experiences and theoretical analysis.It is supposed that human activities and potential rockfalls in a rockfall zone are uniformly distributed,and some formulas are obtained from Bernoulli formula to compute probability of encountering rockfalls under three situations,i.e.,immobile vehicles,mobile vehicles and foot passengers.Thus,risk levels of passing different rockfall zones can be successfully achieved from further vulnerability analysis and the annually averaged probability of encountering rockfalls.
As the rapid development of economy in China,a great number of highways in mountainous areas will confront with more and more rockfall problems.Obviously,risk analysis of encountering rockfalls along these traffic routes is of extreme importance for zoning of rockfall hazards and optimum scheme of mitigation costs.Based on the EGMS methodology,a comprehensive way is developed to estimate frequency of rockfalls occurred in difficult mountainous conditions by combining all the information from site investigation,experiences and theoretical analysis.It is supposed that human activities and potential rockfalls in a rockfall zone are uniformly distributed,and some formulas are obtained from Bernoulli formula to compute probability of encountering rockfalls under three situations,i.e.,immobile vehicles,mobile vehicles and foot passengers.Thus,risk levels of passing different rockfall zones can be successfully achieved from further vulnerability analysis and the annually averaged probability of encountering rockfalls.
引文
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[2]杨志法,张路青,尚彦军.两个值得关注的工程地质力学问题[J].工程地质学报,2002,10(1):10–14.(Yang Zhifa,Zhang Luqing,Shang Yanjun.Two engineering geomechanics subjects to be worth paying close attention[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2002,10(1):10–14.(in Chinese))
[3]王正国.柔性防护系统在兰山西帮边坡滚石治理中的应用[J].工程地质学报,2002,10(增):332–335.(Wang Zhengguo.The application of flexible protection system to rock fall prevention in the west side of Lanshan slope[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2002,10(Supp.):332–335.(in Chinese))
[4]杨志法.系统科学在工程地质力学中的应用[A].见:中国科学院地质研究所工程地质力学开放研究实验室1992年年报[C].北京:地震出版社,1993.127–136.(Yang Zhifa.System science and its application in engineering geomechanics[A].In:Engineering Geomechanics Lab.,Institute of Geology,Chinese Academy of Sciences.The Annual Report of 1992[C].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1993.127–136.(in Chinese))
[5]张路青.滚石机理及滚石灾害评价研究[R].北京:中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所,2003.(Zhang Luqing.Study on rockfall mechanism and rockfall hazard assessment[R].Beijing:Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,2003.(in Chinese)))
[6]张路青,许兵,尚彦军,等.川藏公路南线八宿—林芝段滚石灾害的工程地质调查与评价[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(9):1 551–1 557.(Zhang Luqing,Xu Bing,Shang Yanjun,et al.Engineering geological investigation and assessment on rockfall hazard along Basu—Linzhi section of south line of Sichuan—Tibet highway[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(9):1 551–1 557.(in Chinese))
[7]Bunce C M,Cruden D M,Morgenstern N R.Assessment of the hazard from rock fall on a highway[J].Can.Geotech.J.,1997,34:344–356.
[8]Canuti P,Casagli N,Tarchiani U.Rockfall hazard and risk assessment in coastal cliffs[A].In:Proceedings of the 8th International IAEG Congress[C].Rotterdam:A.A.Balkema,1998.1 585–1 592.
[9]Hungr O,Beckie R D.Assessment of the hazard from rock fall on a highway:discussion[J].Can.Geotech.J.,1998,35:409.
[10]Abbott B,Bruce I,Savigny W,et al.Application of a new methodology for the management of rockfall risk along a railway[A].In:Proceedings of the 8th International IAEG Congress[C].Rotterdam:A.A.Balkema,1998.1 201–1 208.
[11]McClung D M.The encounter probability for mountain slope hazards[J].Can.Geotech.J.,1999,36:1 195–1 196.
[12]高祖新,陈华均.概率论与数理统计[M].南京:南京大学出版社,1998.(Gao Zuxin,Chen Huajun.Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics[M].Nanjing:Nanjing University Press,1998.(in Chinese))
[13]张路青,杨志法.公路沿线遭遇滚石的风险分析—案例研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(21):3 700–3 708.(Zhang Luqing,Yang Zhifa.Risk analysis of encountering rockfalls on a highway—a case study[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(21):3 700–3 708.(in Chinese))
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