中国东南地区塑性流动波与地震迁移(Ⅰ)
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摘要
根据岩石圈塑性流动网络与塑性流动波 (网络波 )的观点 ,在采用和改进以往对于亚洲中东部其它地区网络波研究方法的基础上 ,通过地震活动沿塑性流动网带的迁移、速度场及边界起波期等研究 ,绘制了中国东南地区网络波走时等值线图和波峰带分布图 ,初步展示了网络波控制下的地震能量背景 ,为进一步的研究及该地区地震能量背景的物理预测提供了依据。
The studies of the phenomena about earthquake migration and ground deformation diffusion have long been carried out by many seismologists (Richter,1958; Bott et al .,1973; Kasahara, 1979; Mogi, 1986; Sato, 1989; Babazade et al ., 1991; Ma et al ., 1992; Zhao et al ., 1995), and show that the velocities of these migrations range roughly between 1～1000 km/a. The suggestion of the idea about plastic flow waves is also closely related with the study of earthquake migration (Wang et al ., 1994b, 1995). However, it differs from those mentioned above in the following aspects: it focuses on the migration of earthquakes along plastic flow belts, considering that the large scale seismic belts are controlled by the netlike plastic flow in the lower lithosphere (including the lower crust and lithospheric mantle) and the earthquake migration is a manifestation of wave propagation in the lower layer; this kind of waves is different from the waves along elastic or viscoelastic layer and is mainly a kind of viscous gravity waves in the lower lithosphere, in short, it can be called network waves in consideration of the closed relation between the plastic flow waves and the plastic flow network. According to the viewpoints of plastic flow network and plastic flow wave in the lower lithosphere, the migration of earthquakes along the plastic flow belts (Fig.2 and 3), velocity field (Fig.4 and 5) and wave generating stages at driving boundary (Fig.7) are investigated by means of the method used previously for the network waves in the major area of the central eastern Asian continent. Moreover, the travel time contour map of the network waves (Fig.6) and the map of wave crest belts (Fig.8) for the southeastern region of China are compiled, preliminarily showing the seismic energy background controlled by the network waves and providing the basis for further studies and the physical prediction of seismic energy background in this region. The studies indicate that in addition to the network waves corresponding to the Central Eastern Asian plastic flow network system stated previously (Wang et al ., 1994b), there are also the waves corresponding to the Southeastern China network system. They are originated from the Himalayan and Taiwan driving boundaries, respectively, and propagate into the continent at different periods and velocities. The former includes mainly the "centenary wave" with average period of 93.4 a and velocities of about 1～10 km/a and the "decadal wave" with 10.8 a and about 20～60 km/a. The latter (Fig.8) includes mainly the "twenty year wave" with average period of 23 a and velocities of about 10～20 km/a and the "decadal wave" with 12a and about 30～50 km/a. As indicated by the experimental models of plastic flow waves in the lithosphere, the quasi periodicity of the network waves is mainly related to the pulsative or intermittent actions at driving boundaries. Note that some simplifications and assumptions have been made in this study, such as the linear assumption of the migration of earthquakes along plastic flow belts, the rough estimation of the migration lines in the time distance distribution charts of earthquakes, etc. The obtained results, therefore, should be considered only as an "initial approximate value" for further studies, and should be examined in the practice of earthquake prediction and revised progressively for approximating the "optimum value" of the seismic energy background. The network waves in the southeastern China region have been examined and revised by the actual seismic activity in 1999 and 2000. The much better understanding about network waves will be gained through a number of "prediction feedback revision prediction" cycles.
The studies of the phenomena about earthquake migration and ground deformation diffusion have long been carried out by many seismologists (Richter,1958; Bott et al .,1973; Kasahara, 1979; Mogi, 1986; Sato, 1989; Babazade et al ., 1991; Ma et al ., 1992; Zhao et al ., 1995), and show that the velocities of these migrations range roughly between 1～1000 km/a. The suggestion of the idea about plastic flow waves is also closely related with the study of earthquake migration (Wang et al ., 1994b, 1995). However, it differs from those mentioned above in the following aspects: it focuses on the migration of earthquakes along plastic flow belts, considering that the large scale seismic belts are controlled by the netlike plastic flow in the lower lithosphere (including the lower crust and lithospheric mantle) and the earthquake migration is a manifestation of wave propagation in the lower layer; this kind of waves is different from the waves along elastic or viscoelastic layer and is mainly a kind of viscous gravity waves in the lower lithosphere, in short, it can be called network waves in consideration of the closed relation between the plastic flow waves and the plastic flow network. According to the viewpoints of plastic flow network and plastic flow wave in the lower lithosphere, the migration of earthquakes along the plastic flow belts (Fig.2 and 3), velocity field (Fig.4 and 5) and wave generating stages at driving boundary (Fig.7) are investigated by means of the method used previously for the network waves in the major area of the central eastern Asian continent. Moreover, the travel time contour map of the network waves (Fig.6) and the map of wave crest belts (Fig.8) for the southeastern region of China are compiled, preliminarily showing the seismic energy background controlled by the network waves and providing the basis for further studies and the physical prediction of seismic energy background in this region. The studies indicate that in addition to the network waves corresponding to the Central Eastern Asian plastic flow network system stated previously (Wang et al ., 1994b), there are also the waves corresponding to the Southeastern China network system. They are originated from the Himalayan and Taiwan driving boundaries, respectively, and propagate into the continent at different periods and velocities. The former includes mainly the "centenary wave" with average period of 93.4 a and velocities of about 1～10 km/a and the "decadal wave" with 10.8 a and about 20～60 km/a. The latter (Fig.8) includes mainly the "twenty year wave" with average period of 23 a and velocities of about 10～20 km/a and the "decadal wave" with 12a and about 30～50 km/a. As indicated by the experimental models of plastic flow waves in the lithosphere, the quasi periodicity of the network waves is mainly related to the pulsative or intermittent actions at driving boundaries. Note that some simplifications and assumptions have been made in this study, such as the linear assumption of the migration of earthquakes along plastic flow belts, the rough estimation of the migration lines in the time distance distribution charts of earthquakes, etc. The obtained results, therefore, should be considered only as an "initial approximate value" for further studies, and should be examined in the practice of earthquake prediction and revised progressively for approximating the "optimum value" of the seismic energy background. The network waves in the southeastern China region have been examined and revised by the actual seismic activity in 1999 and 2000. The much better understanding about network waves will be gained through a number of "prediction feedback revision prediction" cycles.
引文
马宗晋,李献智,金继宇.1992.地震迁移的规律、解释和预报:中国大陆四条地震带的地震迁移〔J〕.地震地质,14(2):129—139.
MAZong jin,LIXian zhi,JINJi yu.1992.Thelaw,interpretationandpredictionofearthquakemigration:earth quakemigrationoffourseismicbeltsinChinamainland〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,14(2):129—139(inChinese).
王绳祖.1985.岩石共轭剪切网络的实验研究〔A〕.见:国家地震局地质研究所编.现代地壳运动研究(1).北京:地震出版社.171—178,190—192.
WANGSheng zu.1985.Experimentalinvestigationofconjugateshearnetworksinrocks〔A〕.In:InstituteofGeol ogy,StateseismologicalBureau(ed).ResearchonRecentCrustalMovement(1).SeismologicalPress,Beijing.171—178,190—192(inChinese).
王绳祖.2001.亚洲中东部岩石圈塑性流动网络与构造应力场〔J〕.长春科技大学学报,31(1):14—19.
WANGSheng zu.2001.Plastic flownetworksandtectonicstressfieldinthelithosphereincentral easternAsia〔J〕.JournalofChangchunUniversityofScienceandTechnology,31(1):14—19(inChinese).
王绳祖,李建国,张宗淳.2001a.岩石圈塑性流动波的实验研究(1)〔J〕.地震地质,23(3).407—418.
WANGSheng zu,LIJian guo,ZHANGZong chun.2001a.Experimentalstudyofplastic flowwavesinthelitho sphere(1)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,23(3):407—418(inChinese).
王绳祖,李建国,张宗淳.2001b.岩石圈塑性流动波的实验研究(2)〔J〕.地震地质,23(3):419—431.
WANGSheng zu,LIJian guo,ZHANGZong chun.2001b.Experimentalstudyofplastic flowwavesinthelitho sphere(2)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,23(3):419—431(inChinese).
王绳祖,张四昌,田勤俭,等.2001c.大陆动力学:网状塑性流动与多级构造变形〔M〕.北京:地震出版社.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGSi chang,TIANQin jian,etal.2001c.ContinentalDynamics:NetlikePlasticFlowandHierarchicalTectonicDeformation〔M〕.SeismologicalPress,Beijing(inChinesewithEnglishsummary).
王绳祖,张宗淳.1994a.中国大陆1995年地震趋势的构造物理方法预测〔A〕.见:国家地震局地质研究所编.地震危险性预测研究(1995年度).北京:地震出版社.30—40.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGZong chun.1994a.PredictionofearthquakesinChinacontinentin1995usingthetectonophysicalmethod〔A〕.In:InstituteofGeology,StateSeismologicalBureau(ed).ResearchesonPredic tionofSeismicRisk(1995).SeismologicalPress,Beijing.30—40(inChinese).
王绳祖,张宗淳.1994b.大陆板内塑性流动波与地震迁移(1)〔J〕.地震地质,16(4):289—297.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGZong chun.1994b.Plastic flowwavesandearthquakemigrationincontinentalplate(1)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,16(4):289—297(inChinese).
王绳祖,张宗淳.1995.大陆板内塑性流动波与地震迁移(2)〔J〕.地震地质,17(2):123—131.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGZong chun.1995.Plastic flowwavesandearthquakemigrationincontinentalplate(2)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,17(2):123—131(inChinese).
王绳祖,张宗淳.1999.“塑性流动-地震”网络研究的新进展与中国大陆2000年度地震趋势的TP法预测〔A〕.见:中国地震局地质研究所编.地震危险性预测研究(2000年度).北京:地震出版社.42—49.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGZong chun.1999.Newprogressinstudyof“plastic flow/seismic”networksandtheten dencyofseismicactivityinChinacontinentin2000 predictedusingtectonophysicalmethod〔A〕.In:InstituteofGeology,ChinaSeismologicalBureau(ed.).ResearchonPredictionofSeismicRisk(2000).SeismologicalPress,Beijing.42—49(inChinese).
王绳祖,张宗淳.2003.中国东南地区塑性流动波与地震迁移(Ⅱ)〔J〕.地震地质,25(2):237—244.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGZong chun.2003.Plastic flowwavesandearthquakemigrationinSoutheastChina(Ⅱ)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,25(2):237—244(inChinese).
赵根模,姚兰予.1995.东亚大陆的地震迁移(一):从西太平洋海沟到中国大陆内部的巨震及火山活动迁移〔J〕.地震学报,17(4):440—447.
ZHAOGen mo,YAOLan yu.1995.EarthquakemigrationinEastAsiamainland(1):themigrationofhugeearth quakesandvolcanicactivitiesfromtheWestPacifictrenchtotheChinesemainland〔J〕.ActaSeismologicaSini ca,17(4):440—447(inChinese).
BabazadeO .1991.Predictionofthe1990Iranearthquakeandprecursoryphenomenaoforbitalinstrongforeshocks〔A〕.In:EuropeanCentreonPreventionandForecastingofEarthquakes(ed).ScientificTechnicalContribu tions,Int.Conf.onEarthquakePrediction:State of theArt,Strasbourg,France.15—18Oct.,1991,2—8.
BottMHP ,DeanDS .1973.Stressdiffusionfromplateboundaries〔J〕.Nature,243:339—341.
KasaharaK .1979.Migrationofcrustaldeformation〔J〕.Tectonophysics,52:329—341.
MogiK .1986
MAZong jin,LIXian zhi,JINJi yu.1992.Thelaw,interpretationandpredictionofearthquakemigration:earth quakemigrationoffourseismicbeltsinChinamainland〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,14(2):129—139(inChinese).
王绳祖.1985.岩石共轭剪切网络的实验研究〔A〕.见:国家地震局地质研究所编.现代地壳运动研究(1).北京:地震出版社.171—178,190—192.
WANGSheng zu.1985.Experimentalinvestigationofconjugateshearnetworksinrocks〔A〕.In:InstituteofGeol ogy,StateseismologicalBureau(ed).ResearchonRecentCrustalMovement(1).SeismologicalPress,Beijing.171—178,190—192(inChinese).
王绳祖.2001.亚洲中东部岩石圈塑性流动网络与构造应力场〔J〕.长春科技大学学报,31(1):14—19.
WANGSheng zu.2001.Plastic flownetworksandtectonicstressfieldinthelithosphereincentral easternAsia〔J〕.JournalofChangchunUniversityofScienceandTechnology,31(1):14—19(inChinese).
王绳祖,李建国,张宗淳.2001a.岩石圈塑性流动波的实验研究(1)〔J〕.地震地质,23(3).407—418.
WANGSheng zu,LIJian guo,ZHANGZong chun.2001a.Experimentalstudyofplastic flowwavesinthelitho sphere(1)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,23(3):407—418(inChinese).
王绳祖,李建国,张宗淳.2001b.岩石圈塑性流动波的实验研究(2)〔J〕.地震地质,23(3):419—431.
WANGSheng zu,LIJian guo,ZHANGZong chun.2001b.Experimentalstudyofplastic flowwavesinthelitho sphere(2)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,23(3):419—431(inChinese).
王绳祖,张四昌,田勤俭,等.2001c.大陆动力学:网状塑性流动与多级构造变形〔M〕.北京:地震出版社.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGSi chang,TIANQin jian,etal.2001c.ContinentalDynamics:NetlikePlasticFlowandHierarchicalTectonicDeformation〔M〕.SeismologicalPress,Beijing(inChinesewithEnglishsummary).
王绳祖,张宗淳.1994a.中国大陆1995年地震趋势的构造物理方法预测〔A〕.见:国家地震局地质研究所编.地震危险性预测研究(1995年度).北京:地震出版社.30—40.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGZong chun.1994a.PredictionofearthquakesinChinacontinentin1995usingthetectonophysicalmethod〔A〕.In:InstituteofGeology,StateSeismologicalBureau(ed).ResearchesonPredic tionofSeismicRisk(1995).SeismologicalPress,Beijing.30—40(inChinese).
王绳祖,张宗淳.1994b.大陆板内塑性流动波与地震迁移(1)〔J〕.地震地质,16(4):289—297.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGZong chun.1994b.Plastic flowwavesandearthquakemigrationincontinentalplate(1)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,16(4):289—297(inChinese).
王绳祖,张宗淳.1995.大陆板内塑性流动波与地震迁移(2)〔J〕.地震地质,17(2):123—131.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGZong chun.1995.Plastic flowwavesandearthquakemigrationincontinentalplate(2)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,17(2):123—131(inChinese).
王绳祖,张宗淳.1999.“塑性流动-地震”网络研究的新进展与中国大陆2000年度地震趋势的TP法预测〔A〕.见:中国地震局地质研究所编.地震危险性预测研究(2000年度).北京:地震出版社.42—49.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGZong chun.1999.Newprogressinstudyof“plastic flow/seismic”networksandtheten dencyofseismicactivityinChinacontinentin2000 predictedusingtectonophysicalmethod〔A〕.In:InstituteofGeology,ChinaSeismologicalBureau(ed.).ResearchonPredictionofSeismicRisk(2000).SeismologicalPress,Beijing.42—49(inChinese).
王绳祖,张宗淳.2003.中国东南地区塑性流动波与地震迁移(Ⅱ)〔J〕.地震地质,25(2):237—244.
WANGSheng zu,ZHANGZong chun.2003.Plastic flowwavesandearthquakemigrationinSoutheastChina(Ⅱ)〔J〕.SeismologyandGeology,25(2):237—244(inChinese).
赵根模,姚兰予.1995.东亚大陆的地震迁移(一):从西太平洋海沟到中国大陆内部的巨震及火山活动迁移〔J〕.地震学报,17(4):440—447.
ZHAOGen mo,YAOLan yu.1995.EarthquakemigrationinEastAsiamainland(1):themigrationofhugeearth quakesandvolcanicactivitiesfromtheWestPacifictrenchtotheChinesemainland〔J〕.ActaSeismologicaSini ca,17(4):440—447(inChinese).
BabazadeO .1991.Predictionofthe1990Iranearthquakeandprecursoryphenomenaoforbitalinstrongforeshocks〔A〕.In:EuropeanCentreonPreventionandForecastingofEarthquakes(ed).ScientificTechnicalContribu tions,Int.Conf.onEarthquakePrediction:State of theArt,Strasbourg,France.15—18Oct.,1991,2—8.
BottMHP ,DeanDS .1973.Stressdiffusionfromplateboundaries〔J〕.Nature,243:339—341.
KasaharaK .1979.Migrationofcrustaldeformation〔J〕.Tectonophysics,52:329—341.
MogiK .1986
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