模糊证据权法在地震滑坡危险度区划中的应用
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摘要
为克服滑坡危险度评价中因子边界划分不确定性和因子权重的主观性问题,引入模糊证据权法,对汶川震区岷江流域雁门乡至映秀段,进行滑坡发生后验概率计算。采用修正后验概率模型,来满足模糊证据权法中证据层间的条件独立性假设,以提高预测结果精度。最后按照预测的滑坡点数,完成研究区滑坡危险度区划。通过与野外实际踏勘数据对比,结果显示:75.24%的已知滑坡点处于修正后验概分级中等危险度以上。表明模糊证据权方法,可较为客观准确地对地震滑坡危险度进行区划,适用于预测以自然因素为主导的事件发生概率。
To overcome the problem of uncertainty of boundary division and subjectivity weights in traditional method,the fuzzy weight of evidence model has been innovatively introduced to calculate the landslide probability.In order to improve the prediction precision,modified posterior probability model has been used to meet the condition of independent for evidence layers in the fuzzy weight of evidence model.And then,based on the landslide prediction number,landslide zoning for Minjiang River,Yanmen to Yingxiu reach,in Wenchuan,has been made.By contrasting with the field investigated data,the results showed that 75.24% known landslide points at the level of upper second class in the landslide zonation map.The application indicates that this method is suitable for predicting the occurrence probability of events caused by natural factors with an objective and accurate zonation of landslide risk.
To overcome the problem of uncertainty of boundary division and subjectivity weights in traditional method,the fuzzy weight of evidence model has been innovatively introduced to calculate the landslide probability.In order to improve the prediction precision,modified posterior probability model has been used to meet the condition of independent for evidence layers in the fuzzy weight of evidence model.And then,based on the landslide prediction number,landslide zoning for Minjiang River,Yanmen to Yingxiu reach,in Wenchuan,has been made.By contrasting with the field investigated data,the results showed that 75.24% known landslide points at the level of upper second class in the landslide zonation map.The application indicates that this method is suitable for predicting the occurrence probability of events caused by natural factors with an objective and accurate zonation of landslide risk.
引文
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[15]成秋明,陈志军,Ali Khaled.模糊证据权方法在镇沅(老王寨)地区金矿资源评价中的应用[J].地球科学—中国地质大学学报,2007,32(2):175-184.CHENG Qiu-ming,CHEN Zhi-jun,Ali Khaled.Application of fuzzy weights of evidence method in mineral resourceassessment for gold in Zhenyuan district,Yunnan province,China[J].Earth Science-Journal of China University ofGeosciences,2007,32(2):175-184.
[16]金文正,汤良杰,杨克明,等.川西龙门山褶皱冲断带分带性变形特征[J].地质学报,2007,81(8):1 073-1 080.JIN Wen-zheng,TANG Liang-jie,YANG Ke-ming,et al.Deformation and zonation of the Longmenshan fold and thrustzone in the western Sichuan basin[J].Acta Geologica Sinica,2007,81(8):1 073-1 080.
[2]匡乐红,刘宝琛,姚京成.基于模糊可拓方法的滑坡危险度区划研究[J].灾害学,2006,21(1):68-72.KUANG Le-hong,LIU Bao-chen,YAO Jing-cheng.Research on regionalization of debris flow risk degree with fuzzy andextension method[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2006,21(1):68-72.
[3]丛威青,潘懋,李铁锋,等.基于GIS的滑坡、滑坡灾害危险性区划关键问题研究[J].地学前沿,2006,13(1):185-190.CONG Wei-qing,PAN Mao,LI Tie-fen,et al.Key research on landslide and debris flow hazard zonation based onGIS[J].Earth Science Frontier,2006,13(1):185-190.
[4]乔建平,石莉莉.滑坡危险度区划方法及其应用[J].地质通报,2009,28(8):1 031-1 038.QIAO Jian-ping,SHI Li-li.Landslide fatalness zoning method and its application[J].Geological Bulletin of China,2009,28(8):1 031-1 038.
[5]刘希林.我国滑坡危险度评价研究:回顾与展望[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(4):1-8.LIU Xi-lin.Debris flow hazard assessment in China:a review and perspective[J].Journal of Natural Disaster,2002,11(4):1-8.
[6]刘希林.国外滑坡机理模型综述[J].灾害学,2002,17(4):1-6.LIU Xi-lin.An overview of foreign debris flow mechanism models[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2002,17(4):1-6.
[7]李端有,王志旺.滑坡危险度区划研究初探[J].长江科学院院报,2005,22(4):41-44.LI Duan-you,WANG Zhi-wang.Hazard zoning of landslide[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2005,22(4):41-44.
[8]赵艳南,牛瑞卿.基于证据权法的滑坡危险度区划探索[J].地理与地理信息科学,2010,26(6):19-23.ZHAO Yan-nan,NIU Rui-qing.Exploration of landslide hazard zonation based on the weights of evidence method[J].Geography and Geo-information Science,2010,26(6):19-23.
[9]孟凡奇,李广杰,秦胜伍,等.基于证据权法的滑坡危险度区划[J].吉林大学学报:地球科学版,2010,23(6):89-94.MENG Fan-qi,LI Guang-jie,QIN Sheng-wu,et al.Zonation of landslide hazards based on weights of evidence model[J].Journal of Jilin University:Earth Science Edition,2010,23(6):89-94.
[10]Agterberg F.P.Computer programs for mineral exploration[J].Science,1989,245(4913):76-81.
[11]Agterberg F.P,Borham-Carter,G.F,CHENG Qiu-min,et al.Weights of evidence modeling and weighted logistic regres-sion for mineral potential mapping[A].Computers in Geology[C].New York:Oxford University Press,1993:13-32.
[12]陈永清,夏庆霖,黄静宁,等.“证据权”法在西南“三江”南段矿产资源评价中的应用[J].中国地质,2007,34(1):132-141.CHEN Yong-qing,XIA Qing-lin,HUANG Jing-ning,et al.Application of the weights-of-evidence method in mineralresource assessments in the southern segment of the“Sanjiang metallogenic zone”,southwestern China[J].Geology inChina,2007,34(1):132-141.
[13]张生元,成秋明,张素萍,等.加权证据权模型和逐步证据权模型及其在个旧锡铜矿产资源预测中的应用[J].地球科学—中国地质大学学报,2009,34(2):281-285.ZHANG Sheng-yuan,CHENG Qiu-ming,ZHANG Su-ping,et al.Weighted weights of evidence and stepwise weights ofevidence and their application in Sn-Cu mineral potential mapping in Gejiu,Yunnan province,China[J].Earth Science-Journal of China University of Geosciences,2009,34(2):281-285.
[14]Agterberg F.P,Cheng Qiu-ming.Conditional independence test for weights of evidence modeling[J].Natural ResourceResearch,1993,11(4):249-255.
[15]成秋明,陈志军,Ali Khaled.模糊证据权方法在镇沅(老王寨)地区金矿资源评价中的应用[J].地球科学—中国地质大学学报,2007,32(2):175-184.CHENG Qiu-ming,CHEN Zhi-jun,Ali Khaled.Application of fuzzy weights of evidence method in mineral resourceassessment for gold in Zhenyuan district,Yunnan province,China[J].Earth Science-Journal of China University ofGeosciences,2007,32(2):175-184.
[16]金文正,汤良杰,杨克明,等.川西龙门山褶皱冲断带分带性变形特征[J].地质学报,2007,81(8):1 073-1 080.JIN Wen-zheng,TANG Liang-jie,YANG Ke-ming,et al.Deformation and zonation of the Longmenshan fold and thrustzone in the western Sichuan basin[J].Acta Geologica Sinica,2007,81(8):1 073-1 080.
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