路面使用性能综合预测物元模型及其应用
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摘要
路面使用性能的合理预测是公路养护和改造计划编制的基础,对于公路的运营管理和优化决策具有重要的意义.本文充分考虑行车对路面性能要求,采用物元综合评判法,根据反映路面性能的主要指标,应用关联函数,建立了路面使用性能综合预测物元模型,把路面性能预测由定性转为定量.该模型能较好地处理路面使用性能演化过程中的随机性,计算简单.最后以具体公路路面使用性能为示例,利用建立的数学模型,对该路段路面使用性能的变化趋势进行了分析,预测结果表明了该方法的可应用性.
Pavement performance prediction is the basis of scheduling pavement maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) treatment, and will directly influence the policy of investment. Considering the pavement serviceability, this paper uses the matter-element comprehensive evaluation method and dependent function to establish the prediction model of pave- ment performance on the basis of some important factors of reflecting pavement performance. These models changes the qualitative method of pavement performance into quantitative. They can deal with randomness of data and is simple and easy to use in practice. As an example, a pavement performance in future is predicted. The prediction results show that these new models are good at predicting pavement performance.
Pavement performance prediction is the basis of scheduling pavement maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) treatment, and will directly influence the policy of investment. Considering the pavement serviceability, this paper uses the matter-element comprehensive evaluation method and dependent function to establish the prediction model of pave- ment performance on the basis of some important factors of reflecting pavement performance. These models changes the qualitative method of pavement performance into quantitative. They can deal with randomness of data and is simple and easy to use in practice. As an example, a pavement performance in future is predicted. The prediction results show that these new models are good at predicting pavement performance.
引文
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[3]门宝辉,梁川.城市环境质量综合评价物元模型及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2003,3(3):134-139.
[4]李志刚,邓学钧,顾锋.高速公路沥青路面使用性能评价模型的探讨[J].公路交通科技,2000,10(5):15-17.
[5]蒋淳,田山,陈化然,等.中强地震预报综合评判物元模型及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998,1(1):135-138.
[6]冯利华.水资源变化趋势的物元分析[J].地域研究与开发,1999,6(2):18-21.
[7]蒋淳,田山,陈化然,等.地震综合预测物元模型及其应用[J].地震学报,2000,7(4):418-423.
[8]李祚泳,彭荔红.生态环境变化趋势的物元可拓识别及其效果检验[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2000,6(3):170-174.
[9]朱继业,窦贻俭,方红松.动态系统物元模型在综合水质预报中的研究和应用[J].城市环境与城市生态,1999,2(1):51-54.
[2]荀志远,沈建红.基于物元分析理论的建筑产品完损度评估[J].土木工程学报,2003,9(9):100-105.
[3]门宝辉,梁川.城市环境质量综合评价物元模型及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2003,3(3):134-139.
[4]李志刚,邓学钧,顾锋.高速公路沥青路面使用性能评价模型的探讨[J].公路交通科技,2000,10(5):15-17.
[5]蒋淳,田山,陈化然,等.中强地震预报综合评判物元模型及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998,1(1):135-138.
[6]冯利华.水资源变化趋势的物元分析[J].地域研究与开发,1999,6(2):18-21.
[7]蒋淳,田山,陈化然,等.地震综合预测物元模型及其应用[J].地震学报,2000,7(4):418-423.
[8]李祚泳,彭荔红.生态环境变化趋势的物元可拓识别及其效果检验[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2000,6(3):170-174.
[9]朱继业,窦贻俭,方红松.动态系统物元模型在综合水质预报中的研究和应用[J].城市环境与城市生态,1999,2(1):51-54.
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