中亚地震目录震级转换及其完整性分析
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摘要
为编制能够应用于地震危险性分析的中亚地区统一震级标度为矩震级的地震目录,从国际地震中心(ISC)下载得到该地区1907—2012年的地震数据,该数据包含众多机构不同震级标度的地震记录。以MW,GCMT为参考机构震级标度,并用最小二乘法拟合了其他机构震级标度与MW,GCMT之间的转换关系。在挑选某次地震事件的唯一震级记录时,以对应转换关系的相关系数大且剩余标准差小为准则进行筛选。对于少量没有震级转换关系或者拟合优度过差的地震记录,使用间接转换关系或者全球转换关系予以补充转换。震级转换后,用时空窗法删除前余震,并考虑构造环境和地震活动水平的空间差异性将研究区划分成5个子区域。采用地震记录时间累积曲线法、最大曲率法(MAXC)和拟合优度检验法(GFT)综合分析各个分区的最小完整震级(MC),并在此基础上用极大似然法拟合相应的地震活动性参数。结果表明,每种完整性分析方法各具一定的优缺点,但采用综合分析的方法能够得出最佳的MC。地震记录时间累积曲线法能分析出高质量地震目录的起始时间,以作为后两种方法的基础,但容易受到地震活动水平随时间波动的影响。由于研究区目录质量较差,最大曲率法误差过大以至于只能作为其他方法的补充,拟合优度检验法的GFT参数也普遍只能达到80%左右。GFT最大值点可能并不对应MC,但是MC通常都在GFT极大值点取得。5个分区1964—2012年的MC普遍在MW4.8左右,b值在1.136—1.514之间波动。
In order to compile a homogeneous catalog in moment magnitude for central Asia which can be used in seismic hazard analysis, we downloaded the seismic data during period 1907—2012 from the International Seismological Center(ISC). The earthquake magnitudes of the data are reported in different scales and come from a variety of sources.In this study we take MW,GCMT as the reference magnitude, then derive a host of empirical relationships between magnitude scales from other institutions with MW,GCMT through least squares technique. The process, for choosing magnitude scale to a seismic event, follows a rule that giving priority to the one with larger correlation coefficient and smaller residual standard deviation in relevant regression relationship. Indirect conversion relationships and relationships derived from global seismic data serve as supplement when lack of direct conversion relations or the level of goodness of fit is too poor. A spatial and temporal windowing method is applied to remove pre-aftershocks, then the study area is divided into 5 smaller zones on the basis of spatial difference in structural setting and seismic activity. The identification of completeness magnitude(MC) for each zone is done by the combination of three kinds of methods: cumulative number of earthquakes plotted against time, maximum curvature(MAXC) and goodness of fit text(GFT). The seismicity parameters of zones are calculated with maximum likelihood method on the basis of completeness analysis of catalog at last. Results indicate that though each method has its own advantage and drawbacks, we can acquire optimum MC when used in combination with other methods. Graph between time and cumulative number of earthquakes can be used to identify the starting time of high-quality catalog, which is the basis of the MAXC and GFT, but it could be easily affected by seismicity fluctuations over time. Because of poor data quality in the study region, the error of MAXC is so big that it can only be used as supplement for two other methods and the fit-level of GFT can only be as large as approximately 80% in zones. Although the maximum of GFT may not correspond to MC, it can be always obtained from extreme point of GFT. The MC of 5 zones during the period of 1964—2012 generally occurs around MW4.8, and the b value varies from 1.136 to 1.514.
In order to compile a homogeneous catalog in moment magnitude for central Asia which can be used in seismic hazard analysis, we downloaded the seismic data during period 1907—2012 from the International Seismological Center(ISC). The earthquake magnitudes of the data are reported in different scales and come from a variety of sources.In this study we take MW,GCMT as the reference magnitude, then derive a host of empirical relationships between magnitude scales from other institutions with MW,GCMT through least squares technique. The process, for choosing magnitude scale to a seismic event, follows a rule that giving priority to the one with larger correlation coefficient and smaller residual standard deviation in relevant regression relationship. Indirect conversion relationships and relationships derived from global seismic data serve as supplement when lack of direct conversion relations or the level of goodness of fit is too poor. A spatial and temporal windowing method is applied to remove pre-aftershocks, then the study area is divided into 5 smaller zones on the basis of spatial difference in structural setting and seismic activity. The identification of completeness magnitude(MC) for each zone is done by the combination of three kinds of methods: cumulative number of earthquakes plotted against time, maximum curvature(MAXC) and goodness of fit text(GFT). The seismicity parameters of zones are calculated with maximum likelihood method on the basis of completeness analysis of catalog at last. Results indicate that though each method has its own advantage and drawbacks, we can acquire optimum MC when used in combination with other methods. Graph between time and cumulative number of earthquakes can be used to identify the starting time of high-quality catalog, which is the basis of the MAXC and GFT, but it could be easily affected by seismicity fluctuations over time. Because of poor data quality in the study region, the error of MAXC is so big that it can only be used as supplement for two other methods and the fit-level of GFT can only be as large as approximately 80% in zones. Although the maximum of GFT may not correspond to MC, it can be always obtained from extreme point of GFT. The MC of 5 zones during the period of 1964—2012 generally occurs around MW4.8, and the b value varies from 1.136 to 1.514.
引文
陈运泰,刘瑞丰,2004.地震的震级.地震地磁观测与研究,25(6):1—12.
冯建刚,蒋长胜,韩立波,陈继峰,2012.甘肃测震台网监测能力及地震目录完整性分析.地震学报,34(5):646—658.
郭秋娜,吕晓健,高战武,2012.汾渭地震带区域地震目录最小完整震级分析.震灾防御技术,7(1):54—63.
刘杰,陈棋福,陈顒,1996.华北地区地震目录完全性分析.地震,16(1):59—67.
刘瑞丰,2003.地震参数.北京:地震出版社,7—15.
刘栋梁,李海兵,潘家伟,Luce C.M.,裴军令,孙知明,司家亮,许伟,2011.帕米尔东北缘—西昆仑的构造地貌及其构造意义.岩石学报,27(11):3499—3512.
潘华,高孟潭,李金臣,2009.新版美国地震区划图源及其参数模型的分析与评述.震灾防御技术,4(2):131 —140.
徐伟进,高孟潭,2012.以空间光滑的地震活动性模型为空间分布函数的地震危险性分析方法.地震学报,34 (4):526—536.
谢卓娟,吕悦军,彭艳菊,张力方,2012.东北地震区小震资料完整性分析及其对地震活动性参数的影响研究.中国地震,28(3):256—265.
汪素云,俞言祥,2009.震级转换关系及其对地震活动性参数的影响研究.震灾防御技术,4(2):141—149.
汪素云,王健,俞言祥,吴清,高阿甲,高孟潭,2010.基于中国地震台网观测报告的ML与MS经验关系.中国地震,26(1):14—22.
张宏志,刁桂苓,赵明淳,王勤彩,张骁,黄媛,2007.不同标度震级关系和台基影响问题探讨.中国地震,23 (2):141—146.
张力方,吕悦军,彭艳菊,谢桌娟,2008.用空间光滑方法评估弱地震活动区的地震活动性参数.震灾防御技术,3(1):27—36.
Aki K.,1965.Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula logN=a-b M and its confidence limits.Bull.Earthq.Res.Inst.Tokyo Univ.,43(2):237—239.
Akkar S.,a■nan Z.,Yenier E.,Erdo■an.,Sandikkaya M.A.,Gülkan P.,2010.The recently compiled Turkish strong motion database:Preliminary investigation for seismological parameters.J.Seism.,14(3):457—479.
Bender B.,1983.Maximum likelihood estimation of b-values for magnitude grouped data.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,73 (3):831—851.
Baba A.B.,Papadimitiou E.E.,Papazachos B.C.,Papaioannou C.A.,Karakostas B.G..,2000.Unified local magnitude scale for earthquakes of south Balkan area.Pure Appl.Geophys,157(5):765—783.
Burton P.W,Xu Y.,Qin C.,Tselentis G.,Sokos E.,2004.A catalogue of seismicity in Greece and the adjacent areas for the twentieth century.Tectonophysics,390(1-4):117—127.
Bormann P.,Saul J.,2008.The new IASPEI standard broadband magnitude mB.Seism.Res.Lett.,79(5):698 —705.
Daniel A.,2007.Applying a change-point detection method on frequency-magnitude distributions.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,97(5):1742—1749.
Ekstrm G.,Dziewonski A.M.,1988.Evidence of bias in estimation of earthquake size.Nature,332:319—323.
Frankel A.D.,1995.Mapping seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States.Seism.Res.Lett.,66(4):8—21.
Frankel A.D.,Mueller C.,Barnhard T.,Perkins D.,Leyendecker E.,Dickman N.,Hanson S.,Hopper M.,1996.National Seismic Hazard Maps Documentation June 1996.Denver:US Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept.,96 —532.
Frankel A.D.,2007.Preliminary documentation for the 2007 update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps.Denver:US Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept.,02–420:2—110.
Gardner J.K.,Knopoff L.,1974.Is the sequence of earthquakes in southern California,with aftershocks removed,Poissonian.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,64(5):1363—1367.
Gutenberg R.,Richter C.F.,1944.Frequency of earthquakes in California.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,34(4):185 —188.
Grünthal G.,Wahlstrm R.,Stromeyer D.,2009.The unified catalog of earthquakes in central,northern,and northwestern Europe(CENEC)—updated and expanded to the last millennium.J.Seism.,13(4):517—541.
Johnston A.C.,1996.Seismic moment assessment of earthquakes in stable continental regions—I.Instrumental seismology.Geophys J.Int.,124(2):381—414.
Leptokaropoulos K.M.,Karakostas V.G.,Papadimitriou E.E.,Adamaki A.K.,Tan O.,?nan S.,2013.A homogeneous earthquake catalog for western Turkey and magnitude of completeness determination.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,103 (5):2739—2751.
Mulargia F.,Tinti S.,1985.Seismic sample areas defined from incomplete catalogs:An application to the Italian territory.Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,40(4):273—300.
Marzocchi W.,Sandri L.,2003.A review and new insights on the estimation of the b-value and its uncertainty.Annals of Geophysics,46(6):1271—1282.
Page R.,1968.Aftershocks and microaftershocks of the Great Alaska earthquake of 1964,Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,58 (3):1131—1168.
Papazachos B.C.,Kiratzi A.A.,Karakostas B.G.,1997.Toward a homogeneous moment-magnitude determination for earthquakes in Greece and surrounding area.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,87(2):474—483.
Papazachos B.C.,Karakostas V.G.,Kiratzi A.A.,Margaris B.N.,Papazachos C.B.,Scordilis E.M.,2002.Uncertainties in the estimation of earthquake magnitudes in Greece.J.Seism.,6(4):557—570.
Power M.,Chiou B.,Abrahamson N.,Bozorgnia Y.,Shantz T.,Roblee C.,2008.An overview of the NGA project.Earthquake Spectra,24(1):3—21.
Petersen M.D.,Frankel A.D.,Harmsen S.C.,Mueller C.S.,Hailer K.M.,Wheeler R.L.,Wesson R.L.,Zeng Y.H.,Boyd O.S.,Perkins D.M.,Luco N.,Field E.H.,Wills C.J.,Rukstales K.S.,2008.Documentation for the 2008Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps.Denver:US Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept 2008-1128,4 —39.
Reasenberg,1985.Sencond-order moment of Califonia seismicity,1969-1982.Journal of Geophysical Research,90 (B7):5479—5495.
Rydelek P.A.,Sacks I.S.,1989.Testing the completeness of earthquake catalogs and the hypothesis of self-similarity.Nature,337:251—253.
Robinson A.C.,Yin A.,Manning C.E.,Harrison T.M.,Shuan-Hong Z.and Xiao-Feng W.,2007.Cenozoic evolution of the eastern Pamir:Implications for strain-accommodation mechanisms at the western end of the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen.Geological Society of America Bulletin,119(7-8):882—896.
Reiter K.,Kukowski N.,Ratschbacher L.,2011.The interaction of two indenters in analogue experiments and implications for curved fold-and-thrust belts.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,302(2011):132—146.
Scordilis E.M.,2006.Empirical global relations converting MS and mb to moment magnitude.J.Seism.,10(2):225 —236.
Taylor D.W.A.,Snoke J.A.,Sacks I.S.,Takanami T.,1990.Non-linear frequency-magnitude relationship for the Hokkaido corner,Japan.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,80(2):340—353.
Utsu T.,1969.Aftershocks and earthquake statistics(I)—some parameters which characterize an aftershock sequence and their interrelations.Journal of the Faculty of Science,Hokkaido University.Series 7,Geophysics,3 (3):129—195.
Uhrhammer R.A.,1986.Characteristics of northern and central California seismicity.Earthquake Notes,57(1),21 (abstract).
Utsu T.,1999.Representation and analysis of the earthquake size distribution:a historical review and some new approaches.Pure Appl.Geophys,155:509—535.
Weichert D.H.,1980.Estimation of the earthquake recurrence parameters for unequal observation periods for different magnitudes.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,70(4):1337—1346.
Wiemer S.,Wyss M.,2000.Minimum magnitude of complete reporting in earthquake catalogs:Examples from Alaska,the western United States,and Japan.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,90(4):859—869.
Woessner J.,Wiemer S.,2005.Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogs:Estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,95(2):684—698.
Yadav R.B.S.,Bormann P.,Rastogi B.K.,Das M.C.,Chopra S.,2009.A homogeneous and complete earthquake catalog for northeast India and the adjoining region.Seismol.Res.Lett.,80(4):609—627.
Yadav R.B.S.,Bayrak Y.,Tripathi J.N.,Chopra S.,Singh A.P.,Bayrak E.,2011.A probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazard parameters in NW Himalaya and the Adjoing Regions.Pure Appl.Geophys,169(9):1619—1639.
冯建刚,蒋长胜,韩立波,陈继峰,2012.甘肃测震台网监测能力及地震目录完整性分析.地震学报,34(5):646—658.
郭秋娜,吕晓健,高战武,2012.汾渭地震带区域地震目录最小完整震级分析.震灾防御技术,7(1):54—63.
刘杰,陈棋福,陈顒,1996.华北地区地震目录完全性分析.地震,16(1):59—67.
刘瑞丰,2003.地震参数.北京:地震出版社,7—15.
刘栋梁,李海兵,潘家伟,Luce C.M.,裴军令,孙知明,司家亮,许伟,2011.帕米尔东北缘—西昆仑的构造地貌及其构造意义.岩石学报,27(11):3499—3512.
潘华,高孟潭,李金臣,2009.新版美国地震区划图源及其参数模型的分析与评述.震灾防御技术,4(2):131 —140.
徐伟进,高孟潭,2012.以空间光滑的地震活动性模型为空间分布函数的地震危险性分析方法.地震学报,34 (4):526—536.
谢卓娟,吕悦军,彭艳菊,张力方,2012.东北地震区小震资料完整性分析及其对地震活动性参数的影响研究.中国地震,28(3):256—265.
汪素云,俞言祥,2009.震级转换关系及其对地震活动性参数的影响研究.震灾防御技术,4(2):141—149.
汪素云,王健,俞言祥,吴清,高阿甲,高孟潭,2010.基于中国地震台网观测报告的ML与MS经验关系.中国地震,26(1):14—22.
张宏志,刁桂苓,赵明淳,王勤彩,张骁,黄媛,2007.不同标度震级关系和台基影响问题探讨.中国地震,23 (2):141—146.
张力方,吕悦军,彭艳菊,谢桌娟,2008.用空间光滑方法评估弱地震活动区的地震活动性参数.震灾防御技术,3(1):27—36.
Aki K.,1965.Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula logN=a-b M and its confidence limits.Bull.Earthq.Res.Inst.Tokyo Univ.,43(2):237—239.
Akkar S.,a■nan Z.,Yenier E.,Erdo■an.,Sandikkaya M.A.,Gülkan P.,2010.The recently compiled Turkish strong motion database:Preliminary investigation for seismological parameters.J.Seism.,14(3):457—479.
Bender B.,1983.Maximum likelihood estimation of b-values for magnitude grouped data.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,73 (3):831—851.
Baba A.B.,Papadimitiou E.E.,Papazachos B.C.,Papaioannou C.A.,Karakostas B.G..,2000.Unified local magnitude scale for earthquakes of south Balkan area.Pure Appl.Geophys,157(5):765—783.
Burton P.W,Xu Y.,Qin C.,Tselentis G.,Sokos E.,2004.A catalogue of seismicity in Greece and the adjacent areas for the twentieth century.Tectonophysics,390(1-4):117—127.
Bormann P.,Saul J.,2008.The new IASPEI standard broadband magnitude mB.Seism.Res.Lett.,79(5):698 —705.
Daniel A.,2007.Applying a change-point detection method on frequency-magnitude distributions.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,97(5):1742—1749.
Ekstrm G.,Dziewonski A.M.,1988.Evidence of bias in estimation of earthquake size.Nature,332:319—323.
Frankel A.D.,1995.Mapping seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States.Seism.Res.Lett.,66(4):8—21.
Frankel A.D.,Mueller C.,Barnhard T.,Perkins D.,Leyendecker E.,Dickman N.,Hanson S.,Hopper M.,1996.National Seismic Hazard Maps Documentation June 1996.Denver:US Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept.,96 —532.
Frankel A.D.,2007.Preliminary documentation for the 2007 update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps.Denver:US Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept.,02–420:2—110.
Gardner J.K.,Knopoff L.,1974.Is the sequence of earthquakes in southern California,with aftershocks removed,Poissonian.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,64(5):1363—1367.
Gutenberg R.,Richter C.F.,1944.Frequency of earthquakes in California.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,34(4):185 —188.
Grünthal G.,Wahlstrm R.,Stromeyer D.,2009.The unified catalog of earthquakes in central,northern,and northwestern Europe(CENEC)—updated and expanded to the last millennium.J.Seism.,13(4):517—541.
Johnston A.C.,1996.Seismic moment assessment of earthquakes in stable continental regions—I.Instrumental seismology.Geophys J.Int.,124(2):381—414.
Leptokaropoulos K.M.,Karakostas V.G.,Papadimitriou E.E.,Adamaki A.K.,Tan O.,?nan S.,2013.A homogeneous earthquake catalog for western Turkey and magnitude of completeness determination.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,103 (5):2739—2751.
Mulargia F.,Tinti S.,1985.Seismic sample areas defined from incomplete catalogs:An application to the Italian territory.Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,40(4):273—300.
Marzocchi W.,Sandri L.,2003.A review and new insights on the estimation of the b-value and its uncertainty.Annals of Geophysics,46(6):1271—1282.
Page R.,1968.Aftershocks and microaftershocks of the Great Alaska earthquake of 1964,Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,58 (3):1131—1168.
Papazachos B.C.,Kiratzi A.A.,Karakostas B.G.,1997.Toward a homogeneous moment-magnitude determination for earthquakes in Greece and surrounding area.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,87(2):474—483.
Papazachos B.C.,Karakostas V.G.,Kiratzi A.A.,Margaris B.N.,Papazachos C.B.,Scordilis E.M.,2002.Uncertainties in the estimation of earthquake magnitudes in Greece.J.Seism.,6(4):557—570.
Power M.,Chiou B.,Abrahamson N.,Bozorgnia Y.,Shantz T.,Roblee C.,2008.An overview of the NGA project.Earthquake Spectra,24(1):3—21.
Petersen M.D.,Frankel A.D.,Harmsen S.C.,Mueller C.S.,Hailer K.M.,Wheeler R.L.,Wesson R.L.,Zeng Y.H.,Boyd O.S.,Perkins D.M.,Luco N.,Field E.H.,Wills C.J.,Rukstales K.S.,2008.Documentation for the 2008Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps.Denver:US Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept 2008-1128,4 —39.
Reasenberg,1985.Sencond-order moment of Califonia seismicity,1969-1982.Journal of Geophysical Research,90 (B7):5479—5495.
Rydelek P.A.,Sacks I.S.,1989.Testing the completeness of earthquake catalogs and the hypothesis of self-similarity.Nature,337:251—253.
Robinson A.C.,Yin A.,Manning C.E.,Harrison T.M.,Shuan-Hong Z.and Xiao-Feng W.,2007.Cenozoic evolution of the eastern Pamir:Implications for strain-accommodation mechanisms at the western end of the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen.Geological Society of America Bulletin,119(7-8):882—896.
Reiter K.,Kukowski N.,Ratschbacher L.,2011.The interaction of two indenters in analogue experiments and implications for curved fold-and-thrust belts.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,302(2011):132—146.
Scordilis E.M.,2006.Empirical global relations converting MS and mb to moment magnitude.J.Seism.,10(2):225 —236.
Taylor D.W.A.,Snoke J.A.,Sacks I.S.,Takanami T.,1990.Non-linear frequency-magnitude relationship for the Hokkaido corner,Japan.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,80(2):340—353.
Utsu T.,1969.Aftershocks and earthquake statistics(I)—some parameters which characterize an aftershock sequence and their interrelations.Journal of the Faculty of Science,Hokkaido University.Series 7,Geophysics,3 (3):129—195.
Uhrhammer R.A.,1986.Characteristics of northern and central California seismicity.Earthquake Notes,57(1),21 (abstract).
Utsu T.,1999.Representation and analysis of the earthquake size distribution:a historical review and some new approaches.Pure Appl.Geophys,155:509—535.
Weichert D.H.,1980.Estimation of the earthquake recurrence parameters for unequal observation periods for different magnitudes.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,70(4):1337—1346.
Wiemer S.,Wyss M.,2000.Minimum magnitude of complete reporting in earthquake catalogs:Examples from Alaska,the western United States,and Japan.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,90(4):859—869.
Woessner J.,Wiemer S.,2005.Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogs:Estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,95(2):684—698.
Yadav R.B.S.,Bormann P.,Rastogi B.K.,Das M.C.,Chopra S.,2009.A homogeneous and complete earthquake catalog for northeast India and the adjoining region.Seismol.Res.Lett.,80(4):609—627.
Yadav R.B.S.,Bayrak Y.,Tripathi J.N.,Chopra S.,Singh A.P.,Bayrak E.,2011.A probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazard parameters in NW Himalaya and the Adjoing Regions.Pure Appl.Geophys,169(9):1619—1639.
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