辽宁岫岩、新疆伽师强震群显著地震地方平太阴时分布特征的研究
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摘要
运用1999年辽宁岫岩MS5.4地震和1997年新疆伽师强震群两组地震的序列,计算了这两次地震地方平太阴时τ,并计算两相邻地震的地方平太阴时夹角Δτ,研究了这两次地震的地方平太阴时的分布特征,并对后续地震的危险性进行了判定。分析计算结果表明:针对辽宁省的地方平太阴时的分布,若ML≥4.0并连续3次出现地方平太阴时夹角Δτ≤45°,则可将此作为一项具有短期或临震预报意义的异常项。而新疆伽师强震群显著地震地方平太阴时夹角的分布特征较复杂,若MS≥4.0并连续出现5次地方平太阴时夹角Δτ≤45°时则可视为突出异常,且多数情况下不会虚报。一个震群中的主要地震,连续保持地方平太阴时夹角Δτ≤45°,可判定为前震序列,且处于临震状态,同样可据此判定主震后的强余震。
Using the two sequences of the Xiuyan earthquake with M_S5.4 of Liaoning Province in 1999 and the Jiashi strong swarm of Xinjiang in 1997, we calculated the local mean lunar times for two of them. We calculated the included angle of them about two adjacent earthquakes and studied the distribution characteristics of the local mean lunar times about the two earthquakes. And judged the danger of the subsequent earthquake. The result of calculation showed that for the distribution of the local mean lunal time in Liaoning Province, if the included angles Δt of it for three continuous earthquakes with M_L≥4.0 are less than or equal 45°, it may be as an anomaly of short-term or impending with prediction meaning. While the distribution characteristics of the included angle of the local mean lunar time about the marked earthquakes of the Jiashi swarm in Xinjiang is complex. If the included angles Δt of it for five continuous earthquakes with M_S≥4.0 are less than or equal 45°, it may be regarded as a prominent anomaly. And it can't be virtual prediction in many cases. When the main earthquake of the swarm is always keeping in the included angles Δt ≤45° of the local mean lunar time, we may judge that it is a prognostic sequence. And it is on the condition of impending. At the same, based on it, we may judge the strong aftershock after the main earthquake.
Using the two sequences of the Xiuyan earthquake with M_S5.4 of Liaoning Province in 1999 and the Jiashi strong swarm of Xinjiang in 1997, we calculated the local mean lunar times for two of them. We calculated the included angle of them about two adjacent earthquakes and studied the distribution characteristics of the local mean lunar times about the two earthquakes. And judged the danger of the subsequent earthquake. The result of calculation showed that for the distribution of the local mean lunal time in Liaoning Province, if the included angles Δt of it for three continuous earthquakes with M_L≥4.0 are less than or equal 45°, it may be as an anomaly of short-term or impending with prediction meaning. While the distribution characteristics of the included angle of the local mean lunar time about the marked earthquakes of the Jiashi swarm in Xinjiang is complex. If the included angles Δt of it for five continuous earthquakes with M_S≥4.0 are less than or equal 45°, it may be regarded as a prominent anomaly. And it can't be virtual prediction in many cases. When the main earthquake of the swarm is always keeping in the included angles Δt ≤45° of the local mean lunar time, we may judge that it is a prognostic sequence. And it is on the condition of impending. At the same, based on it, we may judge the strong aftershock after the main earthquake.
引文
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[2]李瑞浩.重力学引论[M].北京:地震出版社,1988.
[3]陈学忠,钟南才,丁鉴海.华北地区地震活动的月相效应及其预报意义[J].地震,1998,18(4):325—330.
[2]李瑞浩.重力学引论[M].北京:地震出版社,1988.
[3]陈学忠,钟南才,丁鉴海.华北地区地震活动的月相效应及其预报意义[J].地震,1998,18(4):325—330.
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